Scare mongering ABC journos need your help

Unfortunately ABC's current batch of bed wetting activists  reporters were born without the sense of perspective gene. This important gene helps normal people discern pure sensationalism from information that we need to pay attention to. Without the gene ABC's affected reporters appear incapable of telling fact from fiction and as a result it is open to spreading sensationalist propaganda.

Case in point is a report yesterday by ABC's Hamish Fitzsimmons. It appears that a dysfunctional perspective gene has affected  Hamish's ability to do basic research.

Here's Hamish's headline:
Sea level rises due to climate change could cost Australia $200b, Climate Council report finds
In his report Hamish provides a platform for professional doom-sayer Will Steffan to make the following statement:

"If you look at a 1.1 metre sea level rise - which is the high-end scenario for 2100 but that's what we're tracking towards - you're looking at more than $200 billion worth of infrastructure that's at risk." "If you look at some of our most vulnerable areas, and the Sydney region is one of those, you would say toward the end of this century that a one-in-100-year flood is going to be happening every few days," he said.

In regard to a sea level rise of 1.1m (1100mm) Will Steffan says "That's what we're tracking towards". Really?

Hamish didn't bother looking at the facts, nor it seems did the alarmist Climate Council. We spent approximately 30 seconds on the internet to locate the following chart from the
Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL):

Fort Denison: monthly mean sea level data

This shows long term sea level in the Sydney area. The graph shows flattish trends from the start of the record to about 1950, then a step change, followed by flattish trends to the end of the data. A simplistic linear regression analysis would provide an average annual sea level rise of about 0.55 mm per year. Extrapolated to 2100 this would amount to an additional rise of 47 mm. This is a very small fraction of what Steffen believes "we're tracking towards".

We have a bunch of alarmist activist scientists who it seems are incapable of analysing real world data feeding gullible reporters who basically appear unwilling to check the facts. The end result is the spread of misinformation.

Unfortunately at this stage there is no cure to what is being called Sponge Syndrome.

Update: The chart below extends the raw Denison data forwards in time and shows what needs to happen in order to satisfy the Climate Councils notion of what we're tracking towards". This lacks credibility and the ABC should ask the council about it.

Fact Free opinion

Brief WEB break.
It seems ABC's commentators make up their minds in the absence of facts. A more rigorous editor might request facts but if the end result fits with your own alarmist mindset, it seems those pesky facts are not required.

Case in point is a recent opinion piece on ABC's environment page titled Walking the climate tightrope on Macquarie Island This deals with die back of Azorella (a cushion plant) on Macquarie Island. The writer immediately leaps to climate change as the cause : "The most likely culprit it would seem is climate change." ABC promote this tenuous link in the following manner: "Even in the remote reaches of the Southern Ocean, climate change is likely having an affect on the most hardy of plants." ABC promote certainty where there is none.

In a related piece broadcast on the increasingly irrelevant Landline, titled Cold Comfort we are told the cause of the die back that was only noticed about 5 years ago, has not been determined. In relation to the role of climate change it seems this must be very recent climate change indeed. Given the definition of climate change relates to an average of about 30 years of weather the link does not stand up to even moderate scrutiny. A look at some real data casts more doubts over climate change as the cause.

Macquarie Island has weather records going back to 1948. The graphs below from the BOM website chart max/min temp and rainfall.

There does not appear to have been a significant change in the weather in that time, especially over the last 30 years which would represent 1 climate cycle according to the WMO definition. 

There are quite a number of factors that may account for the die back admitted to in the Landline piece. It is unfortunate that the ABC allows its commentators to make statements unsupported by factual data. It seems ABC are unable to accept that we do not know the cause and instead promote alarmist speculation. 

Of note, a coincidence not mentioned is that the pest eradication program started a little over 5 years ago. Another hypothesis may involve the introduction and/or spread of a pathogen by this program.

From the Tasmanian Park and Wildlife site...

Horses, donkeys, pigs, cattle, goats, dogs and sheep are long gone, and between 1989 and 2000, weka and cats were eradicated. A major project to remove the last remaining mammal species - rabbits, ship rats and mice - has been under way since 2007.  Aerial baiting of the entire island was completed in July 2011, followed by intensive monitoring by hunters and highly trained detection dogs, to detect and dispatch any surviving individuals.

In April 2014, after nearly three years of monitoring with no sign of surviving individual rabbits, rats or mice, the project was declared a success. 

The likely cause?...

Dr Morag Glen, Senior Research Fellow, Perennial Horticulture Centre, TIA
“Dieback on Macquarie Island”

Abstract: Azorella dieback on Macquarie Island.  A. macquariensis is a keystone species of the dominant feldmark vegetation on Macquarie Island. In recent years it has suffered from a severe dieback yet no causal agent could be isolated. In an attempt to determine whether a potential pathogen is associated with the die-back next-generation sequence technologies were used to characterise fungal bacterial and oomycete communities associated with healthy and die-back affected plants. A species of Rosellinia was the most frequently detected fungal species overall and was strongly associated with roots and rhizosphere soil of die-back affected plants. While Koch’s postulates must be fulfilled to demonstrate that this pathogen is a primary cause of the die-back on Macquarie Island, this finding provides strong evidence to support this hypothesis. Current attempts to isolate the pathogen responsible for Azorella dieback include techniques and semi-selective media suitable for this genus.

About the Speaker: Morag is a molecular biologist and mycologist with an interest in forest health, biodiversity and biosecurity of natural ecosystems as well as plantations. Current work is focussed mainly on root rots and rusts.

Summer now a health risk

ABC's coverage of summer has taken on a new alarmist stance...
Health warnings as heatwave tipped to blast south-east Australia all week
Health warnings have been issued as a scorching heatwave starts to move from Western Australia into the country's south-east.
Authorities are warning temperatures will be in the 40s throughout the week and could cause sickness and even death among the very young and elderly.

I guess ABC's air-conditioned reporters might one day venture out of their artificial climate cells at Ultimo to see what all the fuss is about. Here's a pic from one of last year's heatwaves to give them an idea of what they might expect to see...oh the horror of it all!

The great heatwave of 2013 from The Australian 9/1/2013

Update...meanwhile ABC's heatwave tracker still suggesting temps topping 50 degrees, no answer yet to our earlier inquiries.

History forgotten as "hottest" year news breaks

ABC run a typically alarmist piece with cherry picked weather events turning the year into something exceptional:  How Australia's hottest year on record unfolded

In 1940 CO2 levels were around 310 ppm. Since the ABC has no sense of history let's see whether similar dramatic weather extremes were reported...Using the ABC's own  headlines....It was a year of heatwaves and bushfires, sun, cyclones, and melting bitumen... it was 1940!

Scorching summer sets the tone
January: GREATEST HEATWAVE IN STATE"S HISTORY: EIGHT DEATHS BRISBANE, January 26.
Eight people died in Queensland to-day at a result of the greatest heat the State has ever known. Three cases occurred in Brisbane and five in the country. Forty-three people collapsed in Brisbane and many more in the country. Brisbane experienced the highest temperature in its history—109.8 degrees at 2.35 p.m.

Nothing like this figure has been re-corded during the 85 years that the Meteorological Bureau has been operating. The nearest was 108.9 in January, 1902. To make matters worse, today's heat was accompanied by a record relative humidity of 20 per cent.The record day was followed by the hottest January night since 1922. The temperature at 9 p.m. was 83.3.

February: NINTH DAY OF TRYING HEATWAVE. 100.4 Degrees Today Gives 5th Successive Century. BROKEN HILL today experienced its ninth successive day of trying heat. The temperature reached amaximum of 100.4 degrees at 2 p.m. It would probablyhave been much higher but under the influence of a lightsoutherly wind the mercury dropped to 96 degrèes at2.40 o'clock, and 93 degrees at 3 'o'clock. Early this after-noon heavy clouds gave indication of a cool change being on the way.
Today's century was the 14th for the season, the sixth for the month, 10th for the year, and fifth in succession.

Heat returned in March, and again later in the winter

March: ADELAIDE HEAT-WAVE.Seventh Successive Century.ADELAIDE, March 13.—For the firsttime in the 82 years of the State's re-corded meteorological history, a sevenday spell of heat exceeding 100deg. hasbeen experienced in Adelaide during twosuccessive summers. The record wasestablished today, when the temperaturefor the seventh successive day passed thecentury, reaching 102.6deg. A similarheat-wave occurred in January, 1939. The Divisional Meteorologist (Mr. Bromley) predicts that a cool change should be noticeable tomorrow.Today's seventh successive century equalled the March spells of 1872 and 1934. Maximum readings during the past seven days have been 103.9, 107.7, 110.1, 108.3, 107.9, 104.9, and 102.6.

Heartwave in east: An Eastern heatwave has sent Melbourne and Adelaide temperatures soaring. By 1.30 p.m. today it was 105.3 deg. in Melbourne (40.7C) , and the mercury was still rising. (ed it reached 41.7)

April: DROUGHT IN UPPER HUNTER. Never Worse. POSITION SERIOUS.
Only 83 points of rain were recorded, at Muswellbrook during March, being 139 points below the.average. It is the eleventh successive month on which the fall has not reached the average. The rainfall for the first quarter of the present year was 239 points, is the lowest for that period for the last 17 years. The fall in March, 1939, was 403 points.

WINTER
June: SWIMMING IN SYDNEY! SYDNEY, Sunday. —Sydney had summer weather today, although winter began officially some weeks ago. The maximum temperature reached 78.1 deg. at 2.5 p.m., and was the third highest ever recorded in June. It was the warmest June day since 1931, when a maximum temperature of 80.4 deg., the highest known in June, was recorded. Many people took advantage of the warm weather to swim at the beaches. They found the water cold, but enjoyed a summer sun bath.

August: WARM WEATHER.Temperature a 19-Year Record.With the country urgently in need of rain-some districts are still awating their usual winter rains-the State had a foretaste of summer warmth yesterday. In Perth it was the warmest August day for 19 years, the maximum temperature,77.5deg., being 13.7deg. above,the normal August maximum. Last night there was no immediate prospect of a break in the long spell of fine weather.

Cyclones

February: CYCLONE LOSS WIDESPREAD Extensive Washout In Main Railway
THOUSANDS of pounds damage to crops, buildings, and railand telegraphic and telephone equipment was caused by thecyclone which hit the North Queensland coast on Sunday. Washouts occurred in many sections of the main coastal railway, the worst being near Proserpine, where the rails were suspended for a quarter of a mile.

March: ANOTHER CYCLONE: Serious Damage In Queensland BRISBANE, Friday: A cyclone in northern Queensland has flooded rivers and creeks and dis-organised sail and road services.

Cyclone Causes Record Floods in Far North
SWOOPING down with dramatic suddenness, record floods in the Far North have caused the evacuation of hundreds of residents.Floods are due to the latest cyclone. Ingham, Halifax, and Innisfail have suffered most, but practically all creeks and rivers are in high flood. There have been many thrilling rescues.

Others....HERE

Victoria becomes tornado alley
December: TORNADO NEAR BENDIGO Widespread Damage

also Sydney, and in NSW -see below

November: TORNADO SWEEPS SYDNEY: 2 DEAD

SYDNEY, Thursday. — Heavy damage was caused by a tornadic squall which struck Sydney and suburbs shortly after 3 p.m. today. Most of the damage was done in the northern and western suburbs. A man and a boy were killed. One, of the pylons of the harbour bridge was struck by lightning and half a ton of granite, was dislodged, falling 300 feet to the ground. The velocity of the wind was officially stated at 95 miles an hour.

SYDNEY TORNADO - Wind Attained Record Velocity
The velocity of the wind in the tornadic squall which struck Sydney on Thursday was 95 miles an hour, and was the highest experienced in Sydney or southern Australia since authentic records have been kept.

Adelaide sets autumn heat record
March: HEAT WAVE RECORD IN ADELAIDE Adelaide. Mar. 13.
For the first time in 82 years' of the State's recorded meteorological history a seven-day spell of heat
exceeding 100 degrees has been experienced in Adelaide during two successive summers. The record was established to-day when the temperature for the seventh successive day passed the century, reaching 102.6 degrees.

Bushfire season comes early

September: BIG FIRES RACE THROUGH N.S.W. BUSHLANDS SYDNEY. Monday.-Exceptionally hot spring days with dry winds and no apparent prospects of rain have brought an early bushfire menace to New South Wales this season. Large fires already have been reported from various parts of the State. Metropolitan and suburban fire brigades have been kept busy since early yesterday fighting outbreaks in arid bushland. Yesterday 22 fires were fought and hundreds of acres of bush destroyed. Today a fire broke out in open bushland at Hornsby, and after several hours the brigade was still fighting the flames. They were able to burn effective breaks. A series of small bushfires in the Blue Mountains near Wentworth Falls was fanned yesterday to dangerous proportions by a strong westerly wind. and firemen from several towns have been fighting the flames continuously since yesterday morning.

King-sized hail and Sydney storms

January: HAY STACKS PIERCED BY HAILSTONES BRISBANE, Thursday.
Hailstorms in Warwick, Pittsworth, and Milmerran districts have been so severe that hailstones have penetrated 2ft. into haystacks.

November: Greatest Storm in memory Hail l ft. Deep At Rose Bay SYDNEY, Saturday.Streets littered to a depth of several inches with leaves and torn tree branches, and matted with hailstones, gave evidence at Rose Bay this morning of a terrific storm which struck that suburb last night. Sweeping across like a tornado, the storm was considered the worst in the memory of many residents.The noise was terrific as the wind; increasing in fury, was accompanied by torrential rain and heavy ,hail. Lightning played round the roofs of many houses.

November: Tornado Wipes Out Thousands of Acres of Wheat at Peak Hill The tornado struck the Peak Hill district about twenty miles northwest of the town, and followed a track about three miles wide, completely destroying the wheat crops on more than twenty farms. On 3,000 acres not a head of wheat was left standing-. Some houses were wrecked beyond repair. On one farm a brick house was blown to pieces. Others were unroofed.
Pigs Killed by Hailstones
One farmer had his newly-builthome wrecked, 600 acres of cropsmashed to the ground, and 20 pigskilled by enormous hailstones.

More heatwaves to come

ABC state the obvious, yes there will indeed be more heat waves to come. Odd that the study mentioned starts in the 1950s, and does not extend back to the 1930s and 1890s despite good quality meteorological records being available. One supposes ABC based their story on yesterdays high temps. They really need to check the definition of a heat wave before getting carried away. It generally lasts more than 12 hours.

This TEDX presentation by Ivo Vegtar should be required viewing for ABC's alarmist reporters.
Scary bananas: How environmental exaggeration harms emerging economies.

Case study in alarmist reporting

ABC's "commercial arm", Fairfax provided an interesting headline this morning:

Revealed: 80cm sea rise warningThe report included these paragraphs:

The world is on track to become up to five degrees hotter, and sea levels could rise more than 80 centimetres this century, according to a leaked draft of a landmark climate change report prepared for the UN.

There is now a 95 per cent likelihood human greenhouse gas emissions are driving changes being observed globally, which in recent weeks have included extraordinary heatwaves in Asia and Alaska.

That degree of certainty has been revised up from 90 per cent in the last report in 2007, 66 per cent in 2001, and just over 50 in 1995. A sea level rise of up to 82 centimetres, which would have serious impacts on coastal cities everywhere, is now ''unequivocal'', Reuters reported.

We sent the following Letter:
It seems that SMH reporters have misrepresented IPCC report findings (Revealed: 80cm sea rise warning, 20/8). The draft IPCC report provides a wide range of figures for various climate indices. For sea level rise the IPCC draft report indicates a potential rise between 29 to 80cm. Such a modest rise is well within society's capacity to adapt and does not constitute an end to world as we know it.

SMH's defensive letters editor Julie Lewis provided the following reply (some how I don't think they will publish my call for integrity in reporting):

Dear Marc,

The report says 80cm is much more probable than 29cm, and also that not all ice melt is factored into the models, so the reality could be considerably higher than 80cm this century. Within that context, saying it "could" rise "up to 80cm" is accurate, and reasonably conservative.

to which we responded:

Thanks Julie,

Your reporters appear to have based their story on a secondary source quoting Reuters, not the actual draft report. Did they actually base the report on the original source or did they just quote a secondary source?

Here is the relevant text from the IPCC AR5 draft released last year. In contrast to your claim there is no weighting between the different scenarios. Unless your reporters can quote the relevant section from the actual document it seems my criticism stands. 

IPCC draft from http://www.stopgreensuicide.com/Ch13_sea-level_WG1AR5_SOD_Ch13_All_Final.pdf

Global Mean Sea Level Rise Projections

It is very likely that the rate of global mean sea level rise during the 21st century will exceed the rate observed during 1971–2010 for all RCP scenarios. For the period 2081 to 2100, compared to 1986 to 2005, global mean sea level rise is likely to be in the range 0.29–0.55 m for RCP2.6, 0.36–0.63 m for RCP4.5, 0.37–0.64 m for RCP6.0, and 0.48–0.82 m (0.56–0.96 m by 2100 with a rate of rise 8–15 mm yr–1 over the last decade of the 21st century) for RCP8.5. Unlike in the AR4, these projections include a contribution from changes in ice-sheet outflow, for which the central projection is 0.11 m. There is only medium confidence in these ranges of projected global mean sea level rise, because there is only medium confidence in the likely range of projected contributions from models of ice sheet dynamics, and because there is no consensus about the reliability of semi-empirical models, which give higher projections than process-based models. Larger values cannot be excluded, but current scientific understanding is insufficient for evaluating their probability. [13.5.1, Table 13.5, Figures 13.8 and 13.9]

For a blog post at ABC NEWS Watch can you please confirm your reporters did not see the draft report referred to, instead basing their story on a rehash of the Reuters article. 

"Journalist" Julie goes on to defend use of secondary sources over primary:

Our reporters have based their report on a number of sources. We stand by our story.

Our riposte:
A number of sources but not the primary source! 

And this passes for journalism at SMH!

Sad that activist reporters at Fairfax like their ABC counterparts only provide half the story. ignoring the other side because it does not agree with a fixed world view. Little wonder that Fairfax is increasingly irrelevant when its reporters are not up to basic journalism.


UPDATE:
ABC take a predictable alarmist line with their report on the leaked draft:
UN climate change draft report finds it is 95 per cent likely that global warming is caused by humans

It's always sensationalism over rational reporting at the ABC.

UPDATE 2. Letters page of the 21/8 replete with one sided commentary including this outright misrepresentation: "An 80-centimetre rise in sea levels could, among other things, reduce the width of all beaches by 80 metres. Goodbye, Bondi!" 
What a joke!!
In days long since past letters editors favoured a variety of view points. It seems the Herald with its one eyed reporters heads buried deep in the sand no longer tolerate discussion and debate.

Brain donation required

Help save the Colvin engine. Critical components missing in action. 

ABC's Mark Colvin was fortunate to have recently been donated a kidney. Can anyone help with a brain? In our opinion it seems Mark's is a little defective. Based on PM's uncritical broadcast of the news item below one can only surmise that Mr Colvin's "critical thinking" lobe has worn out and is in need of replacement or repair. Will someone assist before Mr Colvin's lost capacity of critical thinking becomes permanent? Or is it too late already?

Arctic melt damage bill could hit $65 trillion: study.

MARK COLVIN: New international research has put a hefty price tag on the effects of global warming in the Arctic. A group of researchers has worked out that methane releases in the East Siberian Sea could speed up global warming and create a damage bill of up to $65 trillion.
The research paper published in the science journal 'Nature' says the impacts of a warming Arctic are largely being ignored.

The criticism that Mark and his forgetful reporter Stephanie Smail forgot to mention (one of many, but this the most succinct):

Methane mischief: misleading commentary published in Nature

By Jason Samenow

A catastrophic release of the potent greenhouse gas methane in the Arctic could cause a sudden warming with massive economic consequences says a commentary published in the esteemed scientific journal Nature Wednesday. Yet most everything known and published about methane indicates this scenario is very unlikely. This piece should never have been published without discussing this critical point.

snip

And, here’s the kicker: Nature, the same journal which published Wednesday’s commentary, published a scientific review of methane hydrates and climate change by Carolyn Ruppel in 2011 which suggests the scenario in said commentary is virtually impossible. The review states:

Catastrophic, widespread dissociation of methane gas hydrates will not be triggered by continued climate warming at contemporary rates (0.2ºC per decade; IPCC 2007) over timescales of a few hundred years. Most of Earth’s gas hydrates occur at low saturations and in sediments at such great depths below the seafloor or onshore permafrost that they will barely be affected by warming over even [1,000] yr.

UPDATE. For alarming climate stories ABC often has several incarnations of the same story. We left a comment at the environment site for this one but somehow comment are now closed. 
The story published July 25, 2013. Our comment made this morning. There is an editorial comment that reads as follows:

COMMENTS

Comments for this story are no longer available. ABC policy is to delete comments on stories three months after they are published.

UPDATE: Mr Colvin pushes another scare story, this one to do with sea level on his twit account. Looks like it is indeed too late! That "ïsland"now completely man made:

A new dam was built seven years ago near the mouth of the river Couesnon, close to the Mont. The dam captures river and tide and expels the water in a series of great flushing actions which have freed the isle from the silt and mud. Within 10 years, it is anticipated the Mont will be encircled by the high tide up to 90 times a year.

science show thumbs its nose at the IPCC

Unchallenged comment on this week's program that featured an alarming story about Matsungan Island (off northern Bouganville):

"Given scientific sea level rise predictions on the order of 1 to 2m this century...."

1 to 2m? hang on....

Just what did the IPCC say in 2007?

Figure 10.33. Projections and uncertainties (5 to 95% ranges) of global average sea level rise and its components in 2090 to 2099 (relative to 1980 to 1999) for the six SRES marker scenarios. The projected sea level rise assumes that the part of the present-day ice sheet mass imbalance that is due to recent ice flow acceleration will persist unchanged. It does not include the contribution shown from scaled-up ice sheet discharge, which is an alternative possibility. It is also possible that the present imbalance might be transient, in which case the projected sea level rise is reduced by 0.02 m. It must be emphasized that we cannot assess the likelihood of any of these three alternatives, which are presented as illustrative. The state of understanding prevents a best estimate from being made.

What regional tide gauges say...

Still an improvement. Recall dear Robyn feels a rise of 100m is a real possibility...

Andrew Bolt: I ask you, Robyn, 100 metres in the next century...do you really think that?

Robyn Williams: It is possible, yes. The increase of melting that they've noticed in Greenland and the amount that we've seen from the western part of Antarctica, if those increases of three times the expected rate continue, it will be huge, but the question...

Andrew Bolt: I'm scared that you think that because the latest studies in Greenland suggest that little spurt of warming that you base some of this has stopped, and it just depresses me that someone like me, I come on...I haven't said anything here that's wild or anything, I get the grilling, but someone like Tim Flannery is treated like God and made Australian of the Year for saying the most absurd things that are laughed at, even by climatologists.

UPDATE The photo the ABC use to accompany their piece comes from a 2008 report put out by World vision. Readers may be familiar with the image that appears on page 54.The appearance of Ursus Bogus a sure sign of propaganda in action.

ursus bogus

Some wobbly numbers

ABC report: Jellyfish numbers on the rise, expert says.
Seems Three people in Queensland have been stung by the irukandji jellyfish since New Year's Eve.
"Dr Gershwin says there have been huge, unexplained jellyfish blooms across the country. "It tends to be things like over fishing, climate change pollution too much fertiliser and too much sewage in the coastal waters," she said." (or perhaps periodic global fluctuations are to blame?-see below).
Meanwhile back in 1953: SIX PERSONS STUNG BY MARINE OBJECTS AT WEEK-END

"The cause has not been isolated but the sting has been named lrukandji, after an aboriginal tribe which originally inhabited the area between Trinity Inlet and the Mowbray River."

1954 also a bumper Jelly Fish year with "NINE Jelly Fish Victims at Yorkey's Knob". 

"Nine cases of jelly fish stings kept lifesaver first-aid groups busy at Yorkey's Knob yesterday and several other bathers were treated for minor cuts. One jelly fish sting victim,  a seven-year-old girl, was taken to hospital."

Sharks also a nuisance but it seems friendly flipper chased them away:
"The water was again cleared later in the- afternoon for a short period when a shark came within 30yards of the beach. Two porpoises chased it out to sea."

Back in 1934 Jelly Fish (not the irukandji) invaded Port Phillip Bay in: "such vast numbers as seriously to inconvenience bathers. Two years ago nets were used in beach bathing pools on Melbourne beaches to clear the water." Look out Melbourne for its seems "the invasion occurs", "Nearly ever year about the middle of February"! 

Who could forget the Trinity Bay Jelly Fish invasion of 1952? Trinity Beach Jelly-Fish Invasion

"For the last week the sea sklrting Trinity Beach has been thickly studded with jelly-fish of all-types. At least six different varieties of these horrible looking creatures have been counted, and.one specimen weighed 14 lb. The sight of them floating in the water or left stranded along the water line has made swimming most unpopular."

Fi

Or Lakes Entrance in April of the same year? Invasion of Jelly Fish At Lakes Entrance

"At Lakes Entrance Fishermen report an invasion of jelly fish to Lakes King and Victoria."

Blubberous jelly invasion at Newcastle in 1932:

"A jelly fish invasion on a scale unprecedented in the history of Newcastle beach made surfing practically impossible after mid-day on Friday. Lunchtime surfers walked down to the water's edge, watched the glistening mass of blubber, which littered the beach, and went back to the pavilion to have a shower."

The 1955 Port Phillip Bay  jelly "catastrophe": Catastrophe in bay feared: 

"Unless nature steps In with a strong northerly blow to send the dinoflagellates (fish-killing "jelly") out of the bay, fishing will take at least five years to recover."

"Millions of young, inch-long fish were also being killed, with sand worms, crags, and many types, of shell fish." 

Cronulla, March 1939:  Many Rescues in Surf
"Lifesavers effected many rescues in big seas on metropolitan beaches yesterday. Their task was made more hazardous by the invasion of armies of"blue-bottles" and jelly-fish."

Also in 1939 Britain invaded, not by Germans by Jelly Fish!: BRITAIN INVADED-BY JELLYFISH.

"Great Britain is being Invaded by a plague of millions of jellyfish, causing fishermen to stay in port, swimmers to swim inshore, and giving' marine scientists a headache."

The Jelly fish so common in 1936 it even rained jelly fish..."During a shower of rain at Frankston, near Melbourne, clouds, of little brownish creatures fell from the sky and covered the streets.The little creatures were jellyfish, about half an inch long and a quarter of an inch wide."

In 1937 they even caused a blackout! JELLYFISH CAUSE BLACKOUT IN BRISBANE. You'd have thought someone might have done something about it seeing it happened in 1931! Jellyfish Stop Generator. Some lessons never learnt (at which point some recent flooding comes to mind).

And in 1907 these FISHERMEN'S ENEMIES arrived in Portland Bill (UK) in "Plague" proportions. Perhaps descendents of the great Scrabster bay plague of 1886?

In 2012 ABC report three people being stung. In 1952 it was: "a daily average of 10 sufferers."

In regard to the numbers it seems other experts are saying otherwise. Not that ABC thought to ask them!
Jellyfish population booming worldwide; or is it?
Study: No Evidence Of Increasing Jellyfish Population Over Last Two Centuries

In regard to the cause, seems some experts agree it is due to something other than "over fishing, climate change pollution too much fertiliser and too much sewage" : Jellyfish experts show increased blooms are a consequence of periodic global fluctuations.

The key finding of the study shows global jellyfish populations undergo concurrent fluctuations with successive decadal periods of rise and fall, including a rising phase in the 1990s and early 2000s that has contributed to the current perception of a global increase in jellyfish abundance. The previous period of high jellyfish numbers during the 1970s went unnoticed due to limited research on jellyfish at the time, less awareness of global-scale problems and a lower capacity for information sharing (e.g. no Internet).

Mildura Fire Risk - Not Hot off the press, not hotter, not drier

Updated below with a comparison of Mean days above 40 degrees for Mildura. Guess which era is higher?

Must be a slow news day. ABC report today under the somewhat startling headline "Study reveals 'increasing' Mildura fire risk" news of a study that was apparently first published online in April this year (see below). It seems this news is only half a year late, but as it's a "scary" climate change story I guess it's always worthwhile for ABC's activist reporters to get that scary catastrophist climate climate message out; no matter how old! I say apparently because thanks to ABC's extraordinarily "high" reporting standards no where in its brief report does the ABC name the study's title or apparently its authors. It does however have a scary quote from climate alarmist David Karoly. This appears to take the results of the study out of context, for the last line of the abstract of the study reads: "Although these trends are consistent with projected impacts of climate change on FFDI, this study cannot separate the influence of climate change, if any, with that of natural variability. "

In the article Karoly is reported saying: "It gets more extreme in Mildura, and I mean most people in Mildura know that yes it's been getting hotter, it's also been getting drier," he said.
This is used to suggest that there is an increase in risk. And that might be the case if you only look at recent data. If you take a longer view and the data is there for all to see. It seems a different story emerges.

So Hotter and Drier???

Hotter? Here's a compilation of Max temp data from the BOM website based on stations 76077 and 76031 extending from 1910 to 2010, they are combined at the same scale (there does not appear to be a continuously monitored site). 76077 is the post office,  76031 is at the airport about 15 km away). Note that the Max temperature for the period 1910-1940 (red) is higher than 1950-2010. So David, no it's actually not hotter over the long term! It seems that it was hotter overall, earlier last century.

Drier? The figure below is a compilation of rainfall from the same stations. Not that hard to spot the gap between the two, but if you look closely (you might have to click on the figure to enlarge) the mean over the period 1910-1940 (red line -266.6mm) is well below the mean over the period 1950-2010-293.1mm), so no David, not actually drier either, in fact overall, things were drier earlier last century.

The actual figures?: (updated to show figures from 1910)

Drier? From BOM: 

Mean Rainfall station 76077 1889-1949: 266.6mm
Mean Rainfall station 76031 1946-2011: 293.1mm

Hotter? From BOM 

Mean Max temp station 76077 1889-1949: 24.6 degrees C
(Note Mean Max Temp 1910-1949: 24.1 degrees C)

Mean Max temp station 76031 1946-2011: 23.8 degrees C

Mean Min temp station 76077 1889-1949: 10.4 degrees C
(Note Mean Max Temp 1910-1949: 10.5 degrees C)

Mean Min temp station 76031 1946-2011: 10.3 degrees C

Why 1910? according to BOM "Temperature data prior to 1910 should be used with extreme caution as many stations prior to that date used non-standard shelters." That is many sttaions were not yet equiped with the Stevenson Screens that would become standard. Reports from the Adelaide Register in the NLA's newspaper archive suggests a Stevenson Screen was at the Mildura PO in at least 17 January 1907. 

So given the climate was hotter and drier earlier last century I guess with respect to bushfires it was also riskier! So the elevator report actually is: Risk of bushfires in Mildura may return to levels last seen early last century!

Update: Here's a comparison thanks to BOM of days over 40 degrees between the Post Office site (76077-1889-1949) and the airport (76031-1946-2011). Once again when looking at long term trends the earlier data shows considerably more extreme weather:

When you mistakenly employ activists for reporters I guess it's fair to expect propaganda for news. 

Thanks to ABC's poor reporting we assume (and prepare to wear egg on our face) that this is the paper in question, not that it changes the issues with Karoly's alarmist take on the weather:

Changes in Australian fire weather between 1973 and 2010

1. Hamish Clarke^1,2,*, 
2. Christopher Lucas³,
3. Peter Smith¹

Article first published online: 11 APR 2012

DOI: 10.1002/joc.3480

Unfortunately access to more than the abstract requires a subscription, but here's the abstract:

Abstract

A data set of observed fire weather in Australia from 1973–2010 is analysed for trends using the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI). Annual cumulative FFDI, which integrates daily fire weather across the year, increased significantly at 16 of 38 stations. Annual 90th percentile FFDI increased significantly at 24 stations over the same period. None of the stations examined recorded a significant decrease in FFDI. There is an overall bias in the number of significant increases towards the southeast of the continent, while the largest trends occur in the interior of the continent and the smallest occur near the coast. The largest increases in seasonal FFDI occurred during spring and autumn, although with different spatial patterns, while summer recorded the fewest significant trends. These trends suggest increased fire weather conditions at many locations across Australia, due to both increased magnitude of FFDI and a lengthened fire season. Although these trends are consistent with projected impacts of climate change on FFDI, this study cannot separate the influence of climate change, if any, with that of natural variability. 

Suckers for alarm: Latest radiation scare

ABC's alarmist reporter Mark Willacy gets sucked in by a study that claims "the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan may eventually cause up to 1,300 deaths." There is not a skerrick of journalistic scepticism in ABC's report. Andrew Bolt provides some missing background in his criticism of a similar piece published by the Fairfax Press.

Here's the gist of it:

Here’s a few facts omitted from the article - facts which suggest the findings are alarmist trash.

- Jacobson (co-author of the study) is a long-time anti-nuclear activist and global warming campaigner.

- Jacobson’s past absurd claims include asserting that by 2030 “wind, water and solar technologies can provide 100 percent of the world’s energy, eliminating all fossil fuels” - a purely fantastical infrastructure plan that grossly exaggerates the output and reliability of solar and wind power and grossly underplays the cost.

- Jacobson has claimed “nuclear power results in up to 25 times more carbon emissions than wind energy” (a finding contradicted by many experts), basing his calculations on the absurd assumption that the emissions of a nuclear power station should include the emissions of the likely nuclear war that could result...

- Jacobson still assumes the discredited no-safe-dose theory of nuclear radiation, claiming that infinitesimally small levels of radiation spread widely enough will still kill hundreds.

See Andrew's Post for the rest.

Ask an expert, the right expert

Tim Blair noted the Sydney Morning Herald thought an alarmist piece by an activist volcanologist, and "evangelical advocate of drastic cuts in greenhouse gas emissions", was so good they ran it twice. ABC asked the same activist  to provide an expert opinion on links between recent earthquakes and global warming. Seems ABC can't tell their experts from a hole in the floor.

Here's my Letter to the Sydney Morning Herald outlining problems with McGuire's SMH article. They left this one on the cutting room floor.

Dear Editor,
Volcanologist Bill McGuire places undue emphasis on the effect our thin atmosphere has on our even  thinner crust and in the process makes the mistake of linking recent calamitous geological events with anthropogenic global warming (skating on a thin crust,22/3). The inescapable grind of the earth's plates,  the ultimate cause of earthquakes and volcanoes, is driven by large scale processes in the earth's 3000km thick mantle. Changes in the atmosphere play an important minor role.  To blame anthropogenic global warming for recent geological disasters, such as the Japanese tsunami and the eruption of unpronounceable volcanes in Iceland, is like blaming the bird landing on the bonnet of a car perched on a cliff edge for its topple, while ignoring the bulldozer pushing from behind.

ABC snowball Alpine report

ACM have some questions for ABC news....

ABC's spin on Alpine catchment report

Following on from the “no snow by 2050″ story earlier today, the ABC gleefully reports more doom and gloom on the state of the alpine catchments. Perhaps they thought nobody would check:

SIMON SANTOW (ABC World Today): Sixty per cent of the 235 catchments are rated poor to moderate – most are declining.(source)

See the real picture at ACM.

Looking over the report it seems ABC did not question the dodgy method that was used to come up with the assessment. The summary report states:

“The assessment was based on judgments from individuals and not by quantitative data and systematic survey and this was an important limitation. In addition, no field survey or ground truthing was completed.” (from p.21) Source is here (9MB PDF).
Best not to let the facts get in the way of a good scare story.

Errors in the Oh zone

Updated below

The first sentence of ABC's alarming report on a hole in the ozone layer above the Arctic reads:
"A hole formed in the ozone layer above the Arctic in the 2010-11 northern winter, for the first time on record."


AM's Climate Commission Groupie TONY EASTLEY states: Scientists have uncovered the first hole to form in the ozone layer above the Arctic.

AM's LEXI METHERELL: In the stratosphere above the Antarctic, a hole has developed in the ozone layer every winter since the 1980s and this year, for the first time on record, one has formed above the Arctic.

While the "hole" certainly appears to be the largest and perhaps "deepest" in recent records, it is plainly not the "First" as the following articles reveal:
Arctic Ozone Hole Is Confirmed But Less Severe Than Antarctic's‎ March 17 1990 Deseret News

"Scientists have confirmed suspicions that an ozone hole recently developed over the north pole that was similar to but less severe that a previously detected hole over the South Pole."

Ozone Hole easing August 19. 1987 The Pittsburgh Press

"A Norwegian scientist who detected an ozone "hole" last year over this remote Arctic region says the atmosphere apparently has recovered."

Studies confirm 2nd ozone `hole' December 25. 1987 Chicago Sun Times 

"BREMERHAVEN, West Germany Scientists here have found evidence that confirms fears of a second hole developing in the Earth's ozone layer, this time over the arctic."

And from the ABC's 2003 story "Earth's Ozone layer begins to repair itself", the following:

"In the 1980s, scientists detected for the first time an ozone hole forming over Antarctica each August, eventually breaking up by December or January. Another hole was discovered over the Arctic - both regions vulnerable to ozone damage."

We have requested the ABC correct their factual error.

UPDATE 27/10/2011
ABC's reply, received October 27:

Thank you for your email of October 3 concerning the story “Hole in ozone forms above Arctic”

As your correspondence raised concerns of a lack of accuracy, your email was referred to Audience and Consumer Affairs for consideration and response. The unit is separate and independent from ABC program areas and is responsible for investigating complaints alleging a broadcast or publication was in contravention of the ABC's editorial standards. In light of your concerns, we have reviewed the story and assessed it against the ABC’s editorial requirements for accuracy, as outlined in section 2.1 of the ABC’s Editorial Policies: http://www.abc.net.au/corp/pubs/edpols.htm. In the interests of procedural fairness, we have also sought and considered material from ABC News.

The story stated that the hole in the ozone layer formed recently over the Arctic was the first to be formed. This was incorrect; the story should have reported that it was the first hole in the ozone layer above the Arctic that is comparable in size to those that have formed over the Antarctic.

ABC News apologises for the error. It has been corrected on both the online news site and on the AM site. Editor’s notes have also been published.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-10-03/hole-in-ozone-forms-above-arctic/3206356

http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2011/s3330625.htm

Thank you for taking the time to write; your feedback is appreciated.

SCORE +1

mistaking weather for climate

Note the tags below this story on cold weather in NZ...

Climate change: now any weather event out of the ordinary.

Here are a few past climate change events to hit our eastern neighbours...

FIERCE BLIZZARD. HEAVY SNOW IN NEW ZEALAND Transport Disorganised.

The West Australian (Perth, WA : 1879 - 1954) Monday 2 July 1934 p 9 Article

FIVE KILLED. In Terrific Blizzard. New Zealand Catastrophe AUCKLAND, January 20.

Townsville Daily Bulletin (Qld. : 1885 - 1954) Tuesday 21 January 1930 p 6 Article

SNOW, STORM, AND FLOOD DAMAGE DONE IN NEW ZEALAND. Wellington, July 16.

The Advertiser (Adelaide, SA : 1889 - 1931) Wednesday 17 July 1912 p 10 Article

SNOW AND RAIN. Heavy Storm in New Zealand. WELLINGTON (N.Z.), Sunday.

The Sydney Morning Herald (NSW : 1842 - 1954) Monday 27 August 1934 p 10 Article

Terrible Blizzard STORM IN NEW ZEALAND SOUTHERN PORTION SWEPT HEAVY FALLS OF SNOW Wellington, July 1. [coming soon]

Geraldton Guardian and Express (WA : 1929 - 1947) Tuesday 3 July 1934 p 1 Article

Midsummer Freeze Hits New Zealand

The Argus (Melbourne, Vic. : 1848 - 1956) Monday 17 February 1947 p 3 Article