Thursday, February 16, 2012

Missing News: Study confirms no changes in storm frequency or intensity.

The Pielke's both Snr and Jnr among the missing voices at the ABC.

Here's a new paper by Roger Pielke Jnr:

We have a new paper just accepted for publication in the Journal of Climate, titled "Historical Global Tropical Cyclone Landfalls." Here is the abstract:
Historical global tropical cyclone landfalls
Jessica Weinkle, Ryan Maue and Roger Pielke, Jr.
Journal of Climate (in press)

In recent decades, economic damage from tropical cyclones (TCs) around the world has increased dramatically. Scientific literature published to date finds that the increase in losses can be explained entirely by societal changes (such as increasing wealth, structures, population, etc) in locations prone to tropical cyclone landfalls, rather than by changes in annual storm frequency or intensity. However, no homogenized dataset of global tropical cyclone landfalls has been created that might serve as a consistency check for such economic normalization studies. Using currently available historical TC best-track records, we have constructed a global database focused on hurricane-force strength landfalls. Our analysis does not indicate significant long-period global or individual basin trends in the frequency or intensity of landfalling TCs of minor or major hurricane strength. This evidence provides strong support for the conclusion that increasing damage around the world during the past several decades can be explained entirely by increasing wealth in locations prone to TC landfalls, which adds confidence to the fidelity of economic normalization analyses.

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