Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Missing News: No increase in US flooding

Roger Pielke Jnr reports Are US Floods Increasing? The Answer is Still No.
A new paper out today in the Hydrological Sciences Journal shows that flooding has not increased in the United States over records of 85 to 127 years.  This adds to a pile of research that shows similar results around the world.  This result is of course consistent with our work that shows that increasing damage related to weather extremes can be entirely explained by societal changes, such as more property in harm's way.  In fact, in the US flood damage has decreased dramatically as a fraction of GDP, which is exactly whet you get if GDP goes up and flooding does not.
I do not expect research to change anyone's views on the topic or alter the debate over climate change and extreme events.  The debate has moved well beyond that which can be resolved empirically.

From the abstract
Hydrological Sciences Journal
DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2011.621895
In none of the four regions defined in this study is there strong statistical evidence for flood magnitudes increasing with increasing GMCO2. One region, the southwest, showed a statistically significant negative relationship between GMCO2 and flood magnitudes.

ABC's coverage has generally taken a different view on weather related disasters and climate change:
Australia's future forecast: hot, dry and more floods May 1, 2001

1 comment:

  1. Thank you for your continued research and for maintaining pressure on our 'unbiased' and 'balanced' ABC!

    I won't be holding my breath with regard to any meaningful change in the ABC's current "groupthink" mentality delivered at the taxpayer's expense.

    Credibility is something the ABC may never retrieve and, perhaps, deserves to be privatised.



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