El Nino: the difference a month makes

ABC 2 July, 2014:

Weather patterns falling in line with El Nino forecast

More weather patterns are emerging to reinforce the Bureau of Meteorology's prediction of at least a 70 per cent chance of an El Nino weather pattern developing in Spring 2014.

ABC 31 JULY 2014:

El Nino prediction revised down to 50 per cent chance by Bureau of Meteorology

The Bureau of Meteorology has revised down its prediction of an El Nino weather event developing later this year.

Manager of climate predictions at the Bureau of Meteorology, Dr Andrew Watkins, says the forecast could still change.

And no queries from ABC about the usefulness of failing models ?

For what it's worth our big toe suggests a return to neutral conditions this spring with a potential for a late summer La Nina.