The Bureau of Meteorology annually release an outlook of the coming tropical cyclone season in Spring. We have previously looked at the accuracy of BOM's cyclone forecasts and ABC's reluctance to cover the disparity between forecast and outcomes, but have not had a chance to follow up on recent pronouncements.
Looking at the 2016-2017 season last year ABC reported that "Weather forecasters are expecting an average to above-average number of tropical cyclones to form this season in the region that includes the Northern Territory."
BOM claimed with a "high" level of accuracy :
- The Australian region has a 67% chance of having more tropical cyclones than average, meaning a 33% chance of having fewer tropical cyclones than average. Typically, around four tropical cyclones cross the Australian coastline in a season. Outlook accuracy for the Australian region is high.
Once again the numbers paint a poor picture of BOM's cyclone forecast skill, but ABC don't think this is newsworthy.