Tuesday, August 3, 2010

No sense of History




Something odd has happened at the ABC, it appears Auntie has forgotten about history. Perhaps of sign of Goldfish Syndrome? How else to explain this woeful opinion piece by one of ABC's resident dangerous man made global warming criers: Sarah Phillips. In her piece "One swallow does not a summer make" Sara sees the signs of climate disaster in this years weather events, linking 7 weather events with dangerous man made climate doom. Her piece is self contradictory though, as she goes on to conclude: "Weird weather will continue to be a fact of life. Those who both believe the climate is changing and those who doubt it will always point to a day or run of strange weather and use it as an example to illustrate their point of view. But this is a temptation that must be resisted by both sides of the climate change argument. It is only the long term careful measurement of indicators that can reliably show whether or not the climate is changing." Pity that Sara didn't resist the temptation.


Here are Sara's portents of climate doom for 2010:
1. In March, Perth experienced a thumping hailstorm
2. Mini Cyclone on Melbourne in March
3. Flooding in QLD
4.our coldest winter night for more than 30 years.
5.Lennox Head has experienced a tornado
6. Alice Springs has had its coldest day on record
7. Melbourne basked in an unprecedented run of 123 consecutive days over 20°C.

With no sense of history is it any wonder that every storm, every drought, every hailstone gets hailed as "unprecedented", a sign of worse to come. Let's compare  the portents of climate doom of 2010 with another random year, lets take 1953,  before modern warming-surely things were much calmer back then.
"The blast, accompanied by hail, was brief but devastating and was followed by heavy rain"
"THE fiercest hailstorm in Melbourne's history yesterday damaged more than half the homes, Shops and buildings in the metropolitan area. Destruction is estimated at£1,500,000."
"Flooding rivers and creeks marooned at least, 175 motorists during the week-end."
"A heavy blanket of fog yesterday prevented the temperature in Canberra rising above 40.3 degrees, thus equalling the coldest July day on record."
"BRISBANE, Tuesday. A tornado caused more than £3,000 damage in less than two square miles in the Milchclton-Gaylhorne area near Brisbane to-day."
6.SNOW IN VIC.(in February!)
"MELBOURNE, Monday.-Snow was falling on the loftier peaks of the Victorian Alps to-night when a burst of wintry weather swept through the State."
"Betty McNamara, of Ultimo, and Len Williams, of Redfern, took their cocker spaniel for a swim at Bondi last night. They were cooling off after Sydney's record day of heat."
A pretty close match. But wait there's more...

Farmer dies in storm

LIGHTNING ROCKS SUBURBS

WORST EVER KNOWN

Cyclones Bring Flood Danger To East Australian Coast

Worst fog in years "stopped" city for a night

You want steak knives with that?...

Heavy Flood Damage In Victoria

Four Injured By Huge Hailstones

Hail havoc in North

Grasshopper Plague May Be One of Worst

But wait there's more...

Threat Of "Worst Potato Famine For Years"

Gales lash Tasmania Seasickness — on Hobarts ferry! 

RICHMOND RIVER FLOODS MAKE MANY HOMELESS IN LISMORE

Storm Lashes W.A. Coastal Areas

FIVE TONS OF DEAD MICE

Hail havoc in North

Rain Damage At Nubeena

We'll even throw in the table!

The 'cool change' made a mess of Melbourne's summer frocks

CORANGAMITE FLOOD AREAS "BECOMING WORSE"

Dust Storms Ruin Wheat

Year of crazy weather

Violent Hail Storm At St. Marys

Flood kills 10,000 Qld. sheep 

BUSHFIRE ON MOUNTAINS

And the chairs...

Bushfire Peril In Q'land

STORM DAMAGE £50,000

SUDDEN STORM IN CITY

STORM DISRUPTS STRAIT SHIPPING

Storm Lashes W.A. Coastal Areas

Farmer dies in storm

Drought Warning

Hey take the whole dining room!

FARMERS FACING DROUGHT RUIN

Drought Hits Coastal Farms

Drought Plight In Tablelands

DROUGHT DECIMATES CATTLE

Drought In The Suburbs

DROUGHT HITS NORTH COAST FARMS

Wheat Men Fear Drought


These are but a handful of the weird weather calamities to make the news in 1953. It seems like the swallows fly every year if you take the time to look out of the fishbowl.
                           
More local, regional and international weather calamities from 1953 or other years can be found at the National Library's collection of Australian Newspapers http://newspapers.nla.gov.au/

3 comments:

  1. It's absolutely true that proof by anecdote is a fallacy. It doesn't mean that anecdotes are false, of course, just that they need to be put into context. We know that the climate is changing in a particular direction not because of anecdote but because of our understanding of the effect of radiative forcing from an increase in greenhouse gases on the climate system.

    Observed trends in weather events help us understand how extreme weather is changing in response to that forcing.

    ReplyDelete
  2. "extreme weather is changing in response to that forcing..."

    Considering what's happening in the southern hemisphere right now, it appears that more than one "forcing" is currently active. Then, of course, there is the bald face fact that in the last 1.3 million years there have been 13 ice ages, average duration 90,000 years, followed by a warming period, average duration 10,000 years. Now there's a REAL forcing!

    ReplyDelete
  3. previous post should be slightly amended to read, "each ice age followed by a warming period, duration 10,000 years...."

    ReplyDelete

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