Showing posts with label confirmation bias. Show all posts
Showing posts with label confirmation bias. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Marcott: Another Gergis moment

Search for "Gergis" on the ABC site through Google provides 2 pages of results. The first story is:
"Last 50 years were Australia's hottest: study". It's not until the very end of the article that the following editorial note appears in a smaller font:
Editor's note (June 21): Since this story was originally broadcast, errors have been identified in aspects of the data processing which may affect the results of this study. As a result, publication has been delayed and the research has been withdrawn from online publication. Professor Karoly says the data will be recalculated, peer reviewed and published in due course.

The world is still waiting for this deeply flawed study to be published. ABC ignored reporting on the manner in which the paper was found to be flawed. Those interested might like to re-visit relevant posts at Climate Audit

In the meantime in early March ABC uncritically re-published an AFP article that reported on a new study proclaiming:
"We already knew that on a global scale, Earth is warmer today than it was over much of the past 2,000 years," said Shaun Marcott, the lead author of the study, which was published in Science.
"Now we know that it is warmer than most of the past 11,300 years."

Through the tireless efforts of Steve McIntyre we now know that the specular uptick at the end of Marcott's temperature graph that lead to the alarming claims, is an artefact of an inappropriate statistical methodology, It seems the dates of sediments from cores used in the study were shifted in time up to 1000 years. This effectively shifted warming of the Medieval Warm Period into the modern period. Results that showed cooling were truncated from the period of the uptick. Anyone smell the cherries?

How long now to wait for the ABC to comprehensively report on the issue? 

Perhaps this time around rather than adding a footnote, ABC's "journalists" might take the time to fully investigate and report on the matter. However with activists in charge, we won't be holding our breath.


Saturday, April 24, 2010

Butterfly study: a case study in confirmation bias

COMMENT: On March 18 we put up a brief post titled "Bide our time on butterfly" following extensive ABC coverage of an article in Biology Letters that claims that Early emergence in a butterfly causally linked to anthropogenic warming, namely increases in greenhouse gases. See  ABC reports "Butterflies 'fly early as planet warms'" ABC Science online 17/3/2010, and related reports on  News Online: "Climate change link to butterflies" , The World Today:  "Early butterflies linked to climate change"


The reason for biding our time was to await the results of peer review of a comment on the article MH submitted to   Biology Letters just 2 days after the original was posted online. This week the editor of Biology Letters rejected our submission for various reasons. We intend to re-submit the comment piece after we take reviewer's comments into account. 


To help address issues raised by the reviewers we have requested help from the extensive readership of Watts Up With That. Blog author Anthony Watts has graciously agreed to help and has posted our comments along with the reviewer comments on the WUWT blog. See Butterfly study: a case study in confirmation bias.

We have requested ABC provide some coverage!

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Update: ABC News: a case study in Confirmation Bias

COMMENT: ABC's selective reporting on climate change news certainly provides a compelling example of Confirmation Bias in action. ABC Audience and Consumer affairs confirm more news stories will be left blowing in the wind:
"I refer to  your emails of 23 March and 20 and 16 February 2010.
As previously advised, Section 5.2.2(d) of the ABC Editorial Policies states that editorial judgements are based on news values. What is, or is not, considered newsworthy is a decision made at the discretion of ABC News editorial managers, based on their considerable editorial experience.  ABC News editorial managers will continue to assess stories on climate science on their merits.
The ABC Editorial Policies are available online at the attached link; 
http://abc.net.au/corp/pubs/edpols.htm.

Please be assured that your comments and news suggestions have been noted and conveyed to our program areas."


23 March Missing News: Wind contributing to Arctic sea ice loss, study finds
20 February Missing News: Wong 'fully duped" according to climate researcher

Monday, April 5, 2010

Update: Missing News: No change in Global Tropical storm days due to Global Warming - Report

COMMENT: ABC have provided a reply to our complaint about not reporting a recent paper published in the peer reviewed Journal, Geophysical Research Letters. The paper was: Wang, B., Y. Yang, Q.-H. Ding, H. Murakami, and F. Huang. Climate Control of the Global Tropical Storm Days (1965-2008) Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2010GL042487, in press (accepted 9 March 2010).
In the abstract this article reports: "However, the global total number of storm days shows no trend and only an unexpected large amplitude fluctuation driven by El NiƱo-Southern Oscillation and PDO. The rising temperature of about 0.5oC in the tropics so far has not yet affected the global tropical storm days."found that , finds that "The rising temperature of about 0.5oC in the tropics so far has not yet affected the global tropical storm days."


ABC suggest that their report on the Nature article by Knutson et al (see HERE) covers the same ground!
When your global warming reporting is so affected by "confirmation bias" as the ABC's I guess its hard to see the difference even when it's black and white.
ABC's response is posted with the original complaint HERE.