Himalayan warming

Readers may be interested in this post currently featured on Watts Up With That:

Himalayan warming – pulling another thread from IPCC’s fragile tapestry.

The case for dangerous man made global warming hangs on the wall like a frayed medieval tapestry. By pulling just one loose thread the whole thing starts to unravel. We pulled on of those threads recently…

The Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) was recently caught making a mistake in areport on melting ice on Mount Everest. The ABC claimed that ”Studies show temperatures are rising faster at Mount Everest than in the rest of South Asia.” When ABC were requested to provide details of the “Studies” they cited Table 10.2 from  IPCC’s AR4 Working Group 2 report. However, contrary to ABC’s claims this table showed that the area of fastest rising temperature in South Asia was Sri Lanka, not the Himalaya (and hence not Mt Everest). ABC’s gaff however served to highlight a few errors made by the IPCC. 

Read the rest at WUWT.

ABC-polar bear whisperers

ABC HEADLINE: "Polar bears face melting chemical cocktail" by Mark Tamhane ABC science news posted online 6 August 2010.
ABC REPORTED: ABC reported on a research paper published in the journal Science of The Total Environment that suggests the retreat of sea-ice in the Arctic could increase the exposure of species such as polar bears to persistent organic pollutants, which include flame-retardants and substances used to harden plastics.
ABC accompany the report with a picture of a polar bear. the caption reads "Polar bears are particularly at risk, because they are at the very top of the Arctic food chain." However passing a mouse over the image produces the caption "A male polar bear waits for an ice sheet to form". See screen shot above. Update-the mouse over cation now is the main caption-see screen shot below.
THE COMPLAINT: Are ABC reporters so deluded they now think they can talk to the animals. Is ABC reporter Mark Tamhane a Polar bear Whisperer? We look forward to an interview with the Polar Bear in the near future.
Can ABC explain how it knows that the Polar Bear in the photo is "waiting for an ice sheet to form"? and not say waiting for a meal? Placing this fanciful caption on a science article is demeaning to science. Please remove the mouse over caption.
OUTCOME: Pending 
COMMENT: Given the next ice age isn't too far away I guess the polar bear may not have to wait too long. For another example of ABC's efforts reporting on polar bears see our report from February.
Update 16:46: things gets worse as the main caption gets replaced by the mouse over-see screen shot below.

Update: Mt Everest melting! But who says it's so?

(According to ABC sources)

In early June we requested ABC substantiate claims it made in its report titled, Melting ice making Everest climbs dangerous, that: "Studies show temperatures are rising faster at Mount Everest than in the rest of South Asia." We requested ABC provide details of the studies. ABC have now replied with the following (the full reply is shown with the original post):
Received 2 August 2010
"On receipt of your complaint, we have investigated whether it could be established that a significant error had been made that warranted correction, as required by section 5.2.2(c)(ii) of the ABC’s Editorial Policies. Audience and Consumer Affairs note that studies do appear to show temperatures are rising faster at Mount Everest than in the rest of South Asia, as illustrated in Table 10.2 of the Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html. In view of this, we are unable to conclude that a significant error has been made which warrants correction. However, should you have specific further information which you feel is relevant to our decision on this point, we would be happy to consider it."
We have sent ABC Audience and Consumer Affairs the following email:

The ABC report states: "Studies show temperatures are rising faster at Mount Everest than in the rest of South Asia." You have now provided the IPCC table 10.2 as a reference for this information, however for South Asia this table indicates temperature rise in Sri Lanka at "2°C increase per year in central highlands " while the annual increase for the Himalaya is given as "0.09°C per year in Himalayas". Clearly the values for Sri Lanka greatly exceed those of the Himalaya, and Sri Lanka, not the Himalaya, is the area where temperatures are rising faster in South Asia. Clearly both trends are also worthy of further journalistic inquiry for if continued both would greatly exceed IPCC forecasts.

Can you please now amend the article, firstly to include the source reference you refer to, and secondly to correct the factual error?  It is a pity that I have been privy to this information and Audience and Consumer affairs research and other audience members have not. 

Table 10.2 can be viewed directly at:

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-2-2.html
Extract from Table 10.2:

South Asia	India	0.68°C increase per century, increasing trends in annual mean temperature, warming more pronounced during post monsoon and winter
	Nepal	0.09°C per year in Himalayas and 0.04°C in Terai region, more in winter
	Pakistan	0.6 to 1.0°C rise in mean temperature in coastal areas since early 1900s
	Bangladesh	An increasing trend of about 1°C in May and 0.5°C in November during the 14 year period from 1985 to 1998
	Sri Lanka	0.016°C increase per year between 1961 to 90 over entire country, 2°C increase per year in central highlands

We wait ABC's reply. In the meantime we are investigating the source of the warming trends proposed for the Himalayas cited by the IPCC. The three references provided for the Himalaya trends in Table 10.2 are as follows:

Shrestha, A.B., 2004: Climate change in Nepal and its impact on Himalayan glaciers. Presented European Climate Forum Symposium on “Key vulnerable regions and climate change: Identifying thresholds for impacts and adaptation in relation to Article 2 of the UNFCCC”, Beijing.

Shrestha, A.B., C.P. Wake, J.E. Dibb and P.A. Mayewski, 2000: Precipitation fluctuations in the Nepal Himalaya and its vicinity and relationship with some large scale climatological parameters. Int. J. Climatol., 20, 317-327.

Bhadra, B., 2002: Regional cooperation for sustainable development of Hindu Kush Himalaya region: opportunities and challenges.Paper presented at the Alpine Experience – An Approach for other Mountain Regions, Berchtesgaden.
Strangely and contrary to IPCC practice, only one of these is peer reviewed and it deals with precipitation, not temperature; the other citations are conference presentations. The actual temperature values quoted in the table originate from the following paper:
Shrestha, Arun B.; Wake, Cameron P.; Mayewski, Paul A.; Dibb, Jack E.. Maximum Temperature Trends in the Himalaya and Its Vicinity: An Analysis Based on Temperature Records from Nepal for the Period 1971--94. Journal of Climate, 9/1/99, Vol. 12 Issue 9 pp:2775-2786
This paper makes for interesting reading. It appears that the stations used to calculate Himalayan trends come from east Nepal and on face value these do not appear to confirm the warming trends claimed. We intend to post further on this in the near future.
Quick update: the closest weather station to Mt Everest used in the Shrestha et al 1999 paper is Chialsa, 59 km away. ABC's claims that "Studies show temperatures are rising faster at Mount Everest than in the rest of South Asia" are based on a study that has no data at Mt Everest!

No sense of History

Something odd has happened at the ABC, it appears Auntie has forgotten about history. Perhaps of sign of Goldfish Syndrome? How else to explain this woeful opinion piece by one of ABC's resident dangerous man made global warming criers: Sarah Phillips. In her piece "One swallow does not a summer make" Sara sees the signs of climate disaster in this years weather events, linking 7 weather events with dangerous man made climate doom. Her piece is self contradictory though, as she goes on to conclude: "Weird weather will continue to be a fact of life. Those who both believe the climate is changing and those who doubt it will always point to a day or run of strange weather and use it as an example to illustrate their point of view. But this is a temptation that must be resisted by both sides of the climate change argument. It is only the long term careful measurement of indicators that can reliably show whether or not the climate is changing." Pity that Sara didn't resist the temptation.

Here are Sara's portents of climate doom for 2010:

1. In March, Perth experienced a thumping hailstorm

2. Mini Cyclone on Melbourne in March

3. Flooding in QLD

4.our coldest winter night for more than 30 years.

5.Lennox Head has experienced a tornado

6. Alice Springs has had its coldest day on record

7. Melbourne basked in an unprecedented run of 123 consecutive days over 20°C.

With no sense of history is it any wonder that every storm, every drought, every hailstone gets hailed as "unprecedented", a sign of worse to come. Let's compare  the portents of climate doom of 2010 with another random year, lets take 1953,  before modern warming-surely things were much calmer back then.

1.Freak wind storm lashes Perth! 

"The blast, accompanied by hail, was brief but devastating and was followed by heavy rain"

2.Hail fury rips £1½m. havoc as city wilts in storm

"THE fiercest hailstorm in Melbourne's history yesterday damaged more than half the homes, Shops and buildings in the metropolitan area. Destruction is estimated at£1,500,000."

3. Flooding in Queensland

"Flooding rivers and creeks marooned at least, 175 motorists during the week-end."

4.Equalled Coldest July Day 

"A heavy blanket of fog yesterday prevented the temperature in Canberra rising above 40.3 degrees, thus equalling the coldest July day on record."

5.Tornado Damages Brisbane Suburbs

"BRISBANE, Tuesday. A tornado caused more than £3,000 damage in less than two square miles in the Milchclton-Gaylhorne area near Brisbane to-day."

6.SNOW IN VIC.(in February!)

"MELBOURNE, Monday.-Snow was falling on the loftier peaks of the Victorian Alps to-night when a burst of wintry weather swept through the State."

7. COOL SWIM AFTER HEAT-WAVE 

"Betty McNamara, of Ultimo, and Len Williams, of Redfern, took their cocker spaniel for a swim at Bondi last night. They were cooling off after Sydney's record day of heat."
A pretty close match. But wait there's more...

VIOLENT STORM IN MELBOURNE 

Farmer dies in storm

LIGHTNING ROCKS SUBURBS

WORST EVER KNOWN

Cyclones Bring Flood Danger To East Australian Coast

Worst fog in years "stopped" city for a night

FOOD DROPPED TO FLOOD VICTIMS

You want steak knives with that?...

'Flu Worst Since 1918

VICTORIA FACES BIG FLOOD THREAT

Heavy Flood Damage In Victoria

"WORST" POLIO OUTBREAK

Four Injured By Huge Hailstones

Hail havoc in North

Grasshopper Plague May Be One of Worst

But wait there's more...

Threat Of "Worst Potato Famine For Years"

Gales lash Tasmania Seasickness — on Hobarts ferry! 

RICHMOND RIVER FLOODS MAKE MANY HOMELESS IN LISMORE

Storm Lashes W.A. Coastal Areas

FIVE TONS OF DEAD MICE

Hail havoc in North

Rain Damage At Nubeena

We'll even throw in the table!

The 'cool change' made a mess of Melbourne's summer frocks

CORANGAMITE FLOOD AREAS "BECOMING WORSE"

Dust Storms Ruin Wheat

Year of crazy weather

Violent Hail Storm At St. Marys

Flood kills 10,000 Qld. sheep 

BUSHFIRE ON MOUNTAINS

And the chairs...

Bushfire Peril In Q'land

STORM DAMAGE £50,000

SUDDEN STORM IN CITY

STORM DISRUPTS STRAIT SHIPPING

Storm Lashes W.A. Coastal Areas

Farmer dies in storm

Drought Warning

Hey take the whole dining room!

FARMERS FACING DROUGHT RUIN

Drought Hits Coastal Farms

Drought Plight In Tablelands

DROUGHT DECIMATES CATTLE

Drought In The Suburbs

DROUGHT HITS NORTH COAST FARMS

Wheat Men Fear Drought

These are but a handful of the weird weather calamities to make the news in 1953. It seems like the swallows fly every year if you take the time to look out of the fishbowl.

                           

More local, regional and international weather calamities from 1953 or other years can be found at the National Library's collection of Australian Newspapers http://newspapers.nla.gov.au/

Missing voices

Some voices missing from our ABC.
First Prof. Bob Carter discusses the perils faced by scientists who prefer evidence over authority.
The phenomena of disinvitation and the brotherhood of silence
Scientists who venture to make independent statements in public about environmental myths soon come to learn about two post-modern-science tactics used to suppress their views – namely, disinvitation and the application of a brotherhood of silence. How these tactics work is explained in this article. Read it at Quadrant.


Second, Anthony Cox and David Stockwell take ABC's The Drum to task on the issue of Balance (Something Prof Carter and yours truly are familiar with). 
Suing the skeptics
In her ABC Unleashed article Kellie Tranter recommends litigation under the Trade Practices Act (TPA) and its state equivalents against sceptics. This is a novel suggestion. Generally litigation under Part V of the TPA requires two things: firstly the creation of a perception of expertise, and secondly, the use of that perception of expertise to promote a product which people rely on to their detriment because it is defective. The novelty here is that it is the believers in anthropogenic global warming (AGW) who are promoting the product not the sceptics. And it is the general public who are being forced through their power bills and the cascade throughout the economy of the cost of the AGW ‘measures’ to rely on the product of AGW to their detriment.
Read the rest at JoNova, I doubt it will be on the ABC.


Update: Jo Nova unleashes the evidence against Tranter's woeful Unleashed piece:

This article is an good example of how taxpayer’s dollars are not just wasted, but are actively used against the taxpayer. Tranter should be free, of course, to sell her articles and convince the masses, but things that are so easily proven wrong, so unresearched, unreferenced, and unsubstantiated are the communication pollution that makes the country poorer.

That the ABC did not even allow or invite a rebuttal questions their partiality. That they thought this piece was worth stamping the ABC logo on in the first place, is a mark of how low standards of logic, reason and analysis have become. This is not robust community debate, it’s putting the uninformed on national soapboxes. Read the rest at ...Got baseless smears and innuendo? Perfect for the ABC.