80 year old conquers Everest! But hang on what happened to climate change making it unclimbable?

Today ABC Report
"Yuichiro Miura, 80, becomes oldest to scale Mount Everest"
An 80-year-old Japanese climber who has had four heart surgeries has become the oldest person to reach the summit of Mount Everest.

But last year ABC reported: 'Super Sherpa' says climate change may make Everest unclimbable
Climate change is altering the face of the Himalayas, devastating farming communities and making Mount Everest increasingly treacherous to climb, some of the world's top mountaineers have warned.

Sometimes you just have to laugh. Where's that fact checker?

Mt Everest melting! But who says it's so? Take 3

Lovely to see ABC contradict itself. Earlier this year we asked ABC to provide some evidence to back up claims of worsening climbing conditions on Mt Everest.
We asked them to substantiate the following points, taking into account alternate lines of evidence:

1.Climate change is altering the face of the Himalayas (New sat data shows Himalayan glaciers hardly melting at all)
2. Climate change is devastating farming communities in the Himalayas (A community farm in the Himalayan foothills is drawing people from all over)
3. Climate change is making Mount Everest increasingly treacherous to climb (13-year-old American climbs Everest, calls his mom).

ABC provided the weak reply (below) that ignored the main points. Now a story on ABC Science (Himalayan region bucks glacier melt trend: study) confirms that: "One of the world's biggest glacier regions has so far resisted global warming that has ravaged mountain ice elsewhere, according to scientists."

"But a French team, comparing 3D satellite maps from 2000 and 2008, said the glaciers had not lost mass over this period and may even have grown a tiny bit, at 0.11 millimetres per year."
Oh the irony!

From ABC Audience and Consumer Affairs received March 26.

Thank you for your email of February 26 concerning the story “'Super Sherpa' says climate change may make Everest unclimbable”

The sentence you have referred to and queried was the opinion of mountaineers and was clearly referenced as such. It was backed up by a quote from Apa Sherpa. While he may not be an expert on climate change, he is clearly an expert on what is required to make Mt Everest climbable, which was the point of the story. His opinion was premised on an understanding that the glaciers on Mt Everest are shrinking. That opinion is based on reasonable evidence. It is the assessment of the United Nations Environment Program’s Glacier Monitoring Service http://www.grid.unep.ch/glaciers/pdfs/6_9.pdf   and The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development. In relation to the Naturearticle you refer to, the ICIMD points out that the GRACE measurements used in that article do not allow for regional variations where climate change is resulting in shrinking glaciers in some areas due to rising temperatures (including the area in Nepal where Everest is located) but seems to be resulting in growing glaciers in some high altitude regions due to increased precipitation. http://www.icimod.org/?q=6705

Yours sincerely

MM

Audience & Consumer Affairs

Mt Everest melting! But who says it's so? Take 2.

ACM have a post (Media recycles two-year-old Everest scare story) on recycled news from a few years ago about the Himalayas becoming harder to climb due to global warming. ABC have similarly rehashed the story,('Super Sherpa' says climate change may make Everest unclimbable) this time with a little more flesh than the last. When ABC ran the story back in September 2010 they were forced to remove reference to claims about higher rates of warming in the Himalayas after they were unable to verify rates after initially using an IPCC table that we proved was erroneous. Our inquiries lead to corrections to the IPCC's report. (see the Himalaya/IPCC page for a run down.

In their new effort, ABC make the following unsubstantiated claims in the first sentence of their report that we ask them to substantiate:
1.Climate change is altering the face of the Himalayas (New sat data shows Himalayan glaciers hardly melting at all)
2. Climate change is devastating farming communities in the Himalayas (A community farm in the Himalayan foothills is drawing people from all over)
3. Climate change is making Mount Everest increasingly treacherous to climb (13-year-old American climbs Everest, calls his mom)

A modest contribution to the IPCC

The IPCC have finally go around to listing corrections made to AR4, Working Group II Table 10.2. While we take credit for the corrections and the lines added to the errata (see below), it could not have happened without the lack of inquiry and curiosity shown by ABC News.
I guess the "thankyou" is in the mail!
For the full story see articles listed under the Himalaya/IPCC page.

475	Chapter 10	Table 10.2, lines 31-32 (Nepal entry). Replace "0.09°C per year in the Himalayas and 0.04°C in Teral region, more in winter" with "For 1977-94: 0.090°C per year in Trans-Himalaya and 0.057°C per year in the Himalaya, more in winter; 0.041°C per year in Terai region". Add "Shrestha et al., 1999" to References column.
475	Chapter 10	Table 10.2, lines 40-42 (Sri Lanka entry). Replace "0.016°C increase per year between 1961 to 90 over entire country, 2°C increase per year in central highlands" with " 0.016°C increase per year between 1961 to 90 over entire country, with regional increases ranging from 0.008 to 0.025°C per year."
504	Chapter 10	Add "Shrestha, A.B., C.P. Wake, P.A. Mayewski and J.E. Dibb, 1999: Maximum temperature trends in the Himalaya and its vicinity: an analysis based on temperature records from Nepal for the period 1971-94. J.Clim., 12, 2775-2786."

Mt Everest melting! But who says it's so? Apparently no-one!

ABC Audience and consumer affairs provide the following reply in regard to a complaint about its report "Melting ice making Everest climbs dangerous".

Received September 2, 2010

Thank you for your further emails of 3 and 9 August.
As previously advised, the ABC sourced the report it published as 'Melting ice making Everest climbs dangerous' from the BBC as part of an established agency arrangement.  When your complaint was received, Audience and Consumer Affairs considered whether a significant error had been made which warranted correction.  We noted that table 10.2 of the Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 did appear to show temperatures rising faster at Mount Everest than in the rest of South Asia.  (Ed. unfortunately it didn't  - see HERE and  HERE and HERE) We do not claim that this was the source relied upon by the BBC in their original story.
We have noted the material you have provided questioning the veracity of a statement in the report (HERE).  Since we have not been able to verify a source for the references to climate, and in view of the brevity and overall focus of the item, we have removed these references from the story and added an Editor's Note to this effect.

Yours sincerely,
Head, Audience and Consumer Affairs

The editorial note reads "Editor's note (September 1, 2010): A reference to studies of climate in the Himalayas has been removed from this story because the ABC was not able to verify its source."

Without a credible, verifiable source this story amounted to unsubstantiated rumour, and now without the climate aspect it is hardly newsworthy and probably should have been left in the editor's bin. If only ABC News had spent a small amount of time checking its sources before getting carried away with unsubstantiated claims of climate alarm, ABC's audience would not have been mislead.  We have yet to receive a response from the BBC. 

We thank ABC Audience and Consumer affairs for taking the time to properly investigate this matter.

Score +1

See also Himalayan warming – pulling another thread from IPCC’s fragile tapestry.

Our earlier reports on this story:

June 4 Mt Everest melting! But who says it's so?

August 4 Update: Mt Everest melting! But who says it's so?

August 9  Update 2: Mt Everest melting! But who says it's so?

Update 2: Mt Everest melting! But who says it's so?

COMMENT: ABC's use IPCC AR4 WGII report Table 10.2 to back up claims made in a brief report on Mt Everest that stated "Studies show temperatures are rising faster at Mount Everest than in the rest of South Asia"  has thrown up some interesting issues. Most of these are covered at the Watts Up With That post: Himalayan warming – pulling another thread from IPCC’s fragile tapestry. Here's a summary:
1. Table 10.2 indicates that warming in the Himalaya is 0.09º C.yr-1 however warming citing for Si Lanka is 2°C increase per year in central highlands. Clearly ABC's claim doesn't add up. 
2. IPCC provide the incorrect reference to back their figure for the Himalayas. They cite two conference papers and one peer reviewed paper that related to precipitation, not temperature. The correct reference is found to be: Shrestha, Arun B.; Wake, Cameron P.; Mayewski, Paul A.; Dibb, Jack E., 1999. Maximum Temperature Trends in the Himalaya and Its Vicinity: An Analysis Based on Temperature Records from Nepal for the Period 1971–94. Journal of Climate, 9/1/99, Vol. 12 Issue 9 pp:2775-2786.
3. The references for the Sri Lankan Temperatures are not from peer reviewed journals, they relate to precipitation, not temperature.
4. The figure quoted for the Himalaya is the winter trend, not the annual trend. The annual trend is 0.057 º C.yr-1.
5. The highest annual trend for Nepal cited in Shrestha et al., 1999 is 0.09º C.yr-1 for the Trans-Himalaya (an area that excludes Mt Everest).
5. The basis of the Himalayan trends (Shrestha et al 1999) is just 6 weather stations,. The average trend of 5 of these stations dating back to the 1960s is (Max/Min) 0.013º C.yr-1, much less than the 0.057º C.yr-1. All five of these stations are located in the eastern Himalaya. There are problems with use of Kriging method to obtain regional trends.
6. The trend cited for Sri Lankan was brought up in the review of IPCC AR4 WGII:
WUWT reader Justcherrypicked finds:
Timeline:First Order Draft, 10.2.2 Observed climate trends and variability, Table 10.2 does not have a “change in temperature” entry for Sri Lanka, but does have entries for “Change in Precipitation”, and “References”. Which contain, “Increase trend in February and decrease trend in June” and “Chandrapala and Fernando, 1995; Chandrapala, 1996″ respectfully. Clearly, the two references relate to changes in precipitation, not temperature.

The missing entry is noted by Dr. Basnayake in FOD Expert Review Comments. He states:

“”Table 10.2″ under Sri Lanka -change in temperature “minimum and maximum temperatures have been increasing during tthe last centurary. 0.016 C increase per year during 1961-90 period over the entire country. 2.0 C increase per century over the central highlands.” under the references “Basnayake, B.R.S.B. et al 2002″”

. Note he said 2.0 C per century.

Dr. Basnayake’s comments are accepted by the lead authors and is then included in the Second Order Draft (SOD) as

“0.016°C increase per year between 1961-90over entire country, 2°C increase per year in central highlands”

Note they changed century to year, and left out the reference as well.

The error is picked up by Xiuqi Fang during the SOD expert review comments ,

“table 10.2. Check the temperature increasing rate in Sri Lanka. 2C increase per year is too high
(Xiuqi Fang, Beijing Normal University)”

, to which the LA responds “Table entries corrected”. Clearly they are not.

Sadly, Dr. Basnayake does not seem to be involved with the SOD as no reviewer comments for him exist.

Clearly, the IPCC statement “2.0 C increase per year” is an error that was pointed out and ultimately ignored. Additionally, the claim is without a citation.

Both ABC and IPCC have some explaining to do. We have passed this on to the IPCC for comment. 

Himalayan warming

Readers may be interested in this post currently featured on Watts Up With That:

Himalayan warming – pulling another thread from IPCC’s fragile tapestry.

The case for dangerous man made global warming hangs on the wall like a frayed medieval tapestry. By pulling just one loose thread the whole thing starts to unravel. We pulled on of those threads recently…

The Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) was recently caught making a mistake in areport on melting ice on Mount Everest. The ABC claimed that ”Studies show temperatures are rising faster at Mount Everest than in the rest of South Asia.” When ABC were requested to provide details of the “Studies” they cited Table 10.2 from  IPCC’s AR4 Working Group 2 report. However, contrary to ABC’s claims this table showed that the area of fastest rising temperature in South Asia was Sri Lanka, not the Himalaya (and hence not Mt Everest). ABC’s gaff however served to highlight a few errors made by the IPCC. 

Read the rest at WUWT.

Update: Mt Everest melting! But who says it's so?

(According to ABC sources)

In early June we requested ABC substantiate claims it made in its report titled, Melting ice making Everest climbs dangerous, that: "Studies show temperatures are rising faster at Mount Everest than in the rest of South Asia." We requested ABC provide details of the studies. ABC have now replied with the following (the full reply is shown with the original post):
Received 2 August 2010
"On receipt of your complaint, we have investigated whether it could be established that a significant error had been made that warranted correction, as required by section 5.2.2(c)(ii) of the ABC’s Editorial Policies. Audience and Consumer Affairs note that studies do appear to show temperatures are rising faster at Mount Everest than in the rest of South Asia, as illustrated in Table 10.2 of the Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html. In view of this, we are unable to conclude that a significant error has been made which warrants correction. However, should you have specific further information which you feel is relevant to our decision on this point, we would be happy to consider it."
We have sent ABC Audience and Consumer Affairs the following email:

The ABC report states: "Studies show temperatures are rising faster at Mount Everest than in the rest of South Asia." You have now provided the IPCC table 10.2 as a reference for this information, however for South Asia this table indicates temperature rise in Sri Lanka at "2°C increase per year in central highlands " while the annual increase for the Himalaya is given as "0.09°C per year in Himalayas". Clearly the values for Sri Lanka greatly exceed those of the Himalaya, and Sri Lanka, not the Himalaya, is the area where temperatures are rising faster in South Asia. Clearly both trends are also worthy of further journalistic inquiry for if continued both would greatly exceed IPCC forecasts.

Can you please now amend the article, firstly to include the source reference you refer to, and secondly to correct the factual error?  It is a pity that I have been privy to this information and Audience and Consumer affairs research and other audience members have not. 

Table 10.2 can be viewed directly at:

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-2-2.html
Extract from Table 10.2:

South Asia	India	0.68°C increase per century, increasing trends in annual mean temperature, warming more pronounced during post monsoon and winter
	Nepal	0.09°C per year in Himalayas and 0.04°C in Terai region, more in winter
	Pakistan	0.6 to 1.0°C rise in mean temperature in coastal areas since early 1900s
	Bangladesh	An increasing trend of about 1°C in May and 0.5°C in November during the 14 year period from 1985 to 1998
	Sri Lanka	0.016°C increase per year between 1961 to 90 over entire country, 2°C increase per year in central highlands

We wait ABC's reply. In the meantime we are investigating the source of the warming trends proposed for the Himalayas cited by the IPCC. The three references provided for the Himalaya trends in Table 10.2 are as follows:

Shrestha, A.B., 2004: Climate change in Nepal and its impact on Himalayan glaciers. Presented European Climate Forum Symposium on “Key vulnerable regions and climate change: Identifying thresholds for impacts and adaptation in relation to Article 2 of the UNFCCC”, Beijing.

Shrestha, A.B., C.P. Wake, J.E. Dibb and P.A. Mayewski, 2000: Precipitation fluctuations in the Nepal Himalaya and its vicinity and relationship with some large scale climatological parameters. Int. J. Climatol., 20, 317-327.

Bhadra, B., 2002: Regional cooperation for sustainable development of Hindu Kush Himalaya region: opportunities and challenges.Paper presented at the Alpine Experience – An Approach for other Mountain Regions, Berchtesgaden.
Strangely and contrary to IPCC practice, only one of these is peer reviewed and it deals with precipitation, not temperature; the other citations are conference presentations. The actual temperature values quoted in the table originate from the following paper:
Shrestha, Arun B.; Wake, Cameron P.; Mayewski, Paul A.; Dibb, Jack E.. Maximum Temperature Trends in the Himalaya and Its Vicinity: An Analysis Based on Temperature Records from Nepal for the Period 1971--94. Journal of Climate, 9/1/99, Vol. 12 Issue 9 pp:2775-2786
This paper makes for interesting reading. It appears that the stations used to calculate Himalayan trends come from east Nepal and on face value these do not appear to confirm the warming trends claimed. We intend to post further on this in the near future.
Quick update: the closest weather station to Mt Everest used in the Shrestha et al 1999 paper is Chialsa, 59 km away. ABC's claims that "Studies show temperatures are rising faster at Mount Everest than in the rest of South Asia" are based on a study that has no data at Mt Everest!

Mt Everest melting! But who says it's so?

Updated 2/8/2010- see outcome below
ABC HEADLINE: "Melting ice making Everest climbs dangerous" posted online 2 June 2010
ABC REPORTED: ABC condensed a BBC news report (Sherpas warn ice melt is making Everest 'dangerous') that suggested that "a rise in the rate of snow and ice melt on Mount Everest has exposed bare rock faces and made it dangerous to climb." Both the ABC and BBC stories reported that "Studies show temperatures are rising faster at Mount Everest than in the rest of South Asia." No details of which "studies" demonstrated this was provided in either report.
THE COMPLAINT: ABC (and BBC) fail to indicate a crucial part of the story: the source of the studies that demonstrate "temperatures are rising faster at Mount Everest than in the rest of South Asia." Without credible, checkable source this story amounts to unsubstantiated rumour. Can ABC please provide a reference to the study quoted?
OUTCOME: 
Received 2 August, 2010-see update posted in early August

Thank you for your email of 3 June concerning the ABC News Online article “Melting ice making Everest climbs dangerous”, published the previous day. Please accept my apologies for the delay in responding.

In keeping with ABC complaint handling procedures, your concerns have been considered by Audience and Consumer Affairs, a unit separate to and independent from ABC program areas. In light of your concerns, we have assessed the sentence of the article to which you refer against the ABC’s editorial requirement for accuracy in news and current affairs content, as outlined in section 5.2.2(c) of the ABC’s Editorial Policies: http://www.abc.net.au/corp/pubs/edpols.htm. In the interests of procedural fairness, we have also sought and considered material from ABC News.

ABC News have advised that the story in question was taken from BBC copy and was written with radio news bulletins in mind. ABC News Online uses copy from radio news bulletins as a key source which explains why some stories, such as this one, are quite short and report only the key points of the story. It is also important to note that news stories differ in content and style from academic publications which use references and footnotes, and we do not agree a story must necessarily mention the details on which statements are based or that the absence of such information renders the story an “unsubstantiated rumour”.

The ABC’s editorial provision for accuracy requires “every reasonable effort, in the circumstances” must be made to ensure accuracy of factual content. In this case, the story was sourced from the BBC, which we regard as a reputable source of news material. The only changes made to the story by the ABC were editing for length given, as noted above, it was being written for radio news bulletins. Having considered the focus, length and source of the story in question, Audience and Consumer Affairs believe no further efforts were required at the time of publication to meet section 5.2.2(c)(i) of the ABC’s Editorial Policies. 

On receipt of your complaint, we have investigated whether it could be established that a significant error had been made that warranted correction, as required by section 5.2.2(c)(ii) of the ABC’s Editorial Policies. Audience and Consumer Affairs note that studies do appear to show temperatures are rising faster at Mount Everest than in the rest of South Asia, as illustrated in Table 10.2 of the Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html. In view of this, we are unable to conclude that a significant error has been made which warrants correction. However, should you have specific further information which you feel is relevant to our decision on this point, we would be happy to consider it.

Accordingly, while noting your concerns, Audience and Consumer Affairs are satisfied the story was in keeping with the ABC’s editorial requirement for accuracy in news and current affairs content. Nonetheless, please be assured that your comments have been brought to the attention of ABC News management.

Thank you again for taking the time to share your concerns with us, and for your interest in the ABC. For your reference, a copy of the ABC Code of Practice is available at: http://www.abc.net.au/corp/pubs/documents/200806_codeofpractice-revised_2008.pdf.

Yours sincerely

Head, Audience & Consumer Affairs

COMMENT:We have also written to the BBC with a request for the details of this study.