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Inconvenient facts about NT's Hot July

ABC's ineffectual reporters once again fail to ask any questions in regurgitating a BOM report on a hot July in the top end.
ABC's report identified the following key points:

Key points:

1. Some places saw temperatures between 3C and 4.5C above long-term average
2. In Darwin the overnight low only dropped below 20C six times
3. BOM says "hard to say if this is new normal"

Let's look at these one by one.

1. Some places saw temperatures between 3C and 4.5C above long-term average

ABC failed to question the BOM about the how the long term averages are currently determined. The changes quoted by BOM are based on the ACORN data. This is a manufactured dataset based on an undisclosed homogenisation algorithm with arbitrary adjustments (see below). For the NT it is derived from a handful of stations. The NT covers 1.421 million km²; over such a large area how useful is an average based on just a handful of homogenised stations? 

2. In Darwin the overnight low only dropped below 20C six times

So what! Based on the actual measurements from the Old Darwin Post Office (14016) and Airport (14015) this is not out of the ordinary and has been surpassed on quite a few occasions. It might have been worth the BOM pointing out that in 1915 NO (yes zero) nights dropped below 20C, and that there have been warmer overnight averages in Darwin the past (see tables below). ABC's reporter may have asked on how many occasions this had occurred previously and what was the record?

# nights below 20C-Selected months Darwin Post Office (BOM 14016) (More if you look).

1906:1

1915:0

1916:1

1917:2

1920:1

3. BOM says "hard to say if this is new normal"
As usual ABC (and BOM) omit any context or history in claims involving climate change. The graphs below show actual mean maximum and minimum temperatures for Darwin Post Office (BOM 14016) and Darwin Airport (14015) for July from the start of records in 1869. For the Post Office observations were collected in a Stevenson Screen from at least 1890. For the Darwin area this shows a cyclic pattern of temperature variation in both Min and Max means. Interestingly, based on the un-adjusted data there is little change in the long term means. Mean temperatures provide little information about weather experienced on a day by day basis. As usual ABC (and BOM's) reporting is superficial, omits key information and fails to inform.

Jennifer Marohasy has an informative post on homogenisation of Darwin's temperature record. See HERE.

Addendum
As an indication of the arbitrary nature of BOM's homogenisation process the list below shows recorded and ACORN minimum temperatures, and the difference for Darwin Post Office (14016) for July 1915. The range of adjustments over the period lack any credibility.

1915 (JULY)	RECORDED	ACORN	DIFF
1st	21.7	21.1	0.6
2nd	21.2	20.1	1.1
3rd	21.7	21.1	0.6
4th	21.8	21.2	0.6
5th	21.7	21.1	0.6
6th	21.8	21.2	0.6
7th	22.3	21.7	0.6
8th	23.1	22.3	0.8
9th	22.3	21.7	0.6
10th	21.4	20.5	0.9
11th	20.1	19.2	0.9
12th	21.4	20.5	0.9
13th	22.5	21.9	0.6
14th	23.3	22.5	0.8
15th	23.3	22.5	0.8
16th	23.8	23	0.8
17th	23.1	22.3	0.8
18th	21.7	21.1	0.6
19th	22.8	22.1	0.7
20th	23.2	22.4	0.8
21st	22.3	21.7	0.6
22nd	23.1	22.3	0.8
23rd	21.8	21.2	0.6
24th	21.1	20	1.1
25th	21.4	20.5	0.9
26th	21.8	21.2	0.6
27th	22.6	21.9	0.7
28th	23.1	22.3	0.8
29th	21.9	21.2	0.7
30th	22.2	21.6	0.6
31st	22.5	21.9	0.6

Another cyclone forecast BOMs out

A characteristic of ABC News is it's lack of inquiry in testing the outcomes of predictions on climatic events made by experts. One would think that the outcome of predictions would be newsworthy given the amount of money the government allocates to our premier weather agency.

The Bureau of Meteorology annually release an outlook of the coming tropical cyclone season in Spring. We have previously  looked at the accuracy of BOM's cyclone forecasts and ABC's reluctance to cover the disparity between forecast and outcomes, but have not had a chance to follow up on recent pronouncements.

Looking at the 2016-2017 season last year ABC reported that "Weather forecasters are expecting an average to above-average number of tropical cyclones to form this season in the region that includes the Northern Territory."

BOM claimed with a "high" level of accuracy :

• The Australian region has a 67% chance of having more tropical cyclones than average, meaning a 33% chance of having fewer tropical cyclones than average. Typically, around four tropical cyclones cross the Australian coastline in a season. Outlook accuracy for the Australian region is high.
• 
  

So what was the outcome? It seems BOM no longer produce the Darwin Tropical Diagnostic Statement that provided a near real time summary of cyclone activity. Perhaps its buried somewhere else in it's labyrinthine web page. However Wikipedia produce a season summary:  

Once again the numbers paint a poor picture of BOM's cyclone forecast skill, but ABC don't think this is newsworthy.

ABC News: Australia's Orwellian network

ABC NEWS: BRINGING YOU CLOSER TO ORWELL'S 1984 EACH PASSING DAY
ABC report on the latest thwarted terror attack in Australia. Hmm perhaps something is missing? Let's do a search...nope nothing to see there. (Updated -see below)

Lets see if the Sydney Morning Herald can provide more information? 

Hmm, nothing there either?

Let's check The Oz...

Oh! that kind of terrorist.

Even the Washington Post can say it!

“In a time of deceit telling the truth is a revolutionary act.” 

― George Orwell

UPDATE:
Shortly after this piece was posted ABC's report is updated to include the I word!  (Hmm, perhaps someone in Ultimo is a reader?).

Baird's religion report: illogical, unfair and quite possibly inaccurate.

If it was submitted by a trainee journalist Julia Baird's one sided report on domestic violence and the Christian church in Australia would have rated a fail and tought the young scribe some lasting lessons about objectivity, due diligence in research and balance in reporting. Instead the writer is in denial about her piece claiming on twitter:"For the record: there was not a single error in our piece on domestic violence and the church. Am about to publish a guide to the research."

Pieces published in The Australian today (see below) expose Baird's reporting, that resulted from a year of research (at your expense), as lacking balance, lacking inquiry and lacking judgement. The sad thing is that through her poor reporting the focus of the article has shifted to Baird herself and away from the victims of domestic violence.

It seems making themselves NEWS is becoming an increasing feature of reporting at the ABC of late. Take a big bow Chris Uhlmann.

ABC church report ‘misrepresented us’, say experts

Two US experts whose research was relied on by an ABC 7.30 television report claiming “sporadic” Christian church-goers are the worst wife-beaters say they were misrepresented, and the real message is that regular church ­attendance discourages domestic violence.

Phoenix Seminary theology and ethics professor Steven Tracy and sociologist Bradford Wilcox also said the ABC journalists said to have spent a year working on the religion and domestic violence series did not contact them either before or since the program went to air last week.

Facts go missing in ABC report on ‘violent Christians’
The ABC reports that this article was based on a year-long investigation. So they had a year to get this right.

They could have analysed existing ­national surveys, worked with ­serious scholars to conduct quantitative, nationally representative research on religion and domestic violence in Australia, or even fielded their own survey of Australian couples. But Baird and Gleeson, and their bosses at the ABC, did none of this hard work. ­Instead, they relied largely on ­research done in the US to make sweeping and illogical claims about religion and domestic violence in Australia.

So we really know nothing about how common domestic ­violence is among Catholic, Protestant, Muslim, Buddhist and secular Aussies, what role relig­ious attendance plays in increasing or reducing the odds of abuse in Australia, or whether Australian clergy do a better or worse job of counselling abuse victims than other important figures in victims’ lives — such as psychologists and psychiatrists. That the reader is left so ignorant of the basic facts is perhaps the most scandalous and disappointing aspect of the ABC’s year-long investigation

Acknowledgement to Western civilisation

All manner of meetings and openings these days seem to come with an acknowledgement to traditional "owners" or "custodians" of the land upon which the meeting is to be held.

A typical acknowledgement might read something like this:

 I’d like to begin by acknowledging the Traditional Owners/Custodians of the land on which we meet today. I would also like to pay my respects to Elders past and present. 

All well and good. While the acknowledgement pays respect to the nation's first inhabitants it fails to pay respect to our collective human history and the roots of our civilisation, without which there would be no civil society to give rise to the meeting in the first place. With this and the concept of inclusion in mind, in future, before a meeting commences I will read out the following:

I acknowledge and pay respect to the actions, sacrifice, wisdom, traditions and curiosity of our ancestors. Their collective efforts over centuries helped evolve our western civilisation, giving birth to the liberal society that makes this meeting possible.

Many variations on this theme are possible and an Acknowledgement to Western civilisation could be modified to suit any meeting or situation. 

Please add you own version if you so desire.

Don't mention the I word

Only the ABC could post a  "major" report on religion and violence against women, the result of a 12 month "investigation", and fail to include Islam in the mix. One is left with the impression that ABC's "investigative" reporters actually believe the tripe spouted by Yassmin Abdel-Magied when she described Islam as the most feminist religion on Q and A this year? What a joke, that comes as usual at the tax payers expense.

ABC-don't mention the I word