Missing News: Debunking civil war-climate links

Roger Pielke Jnr reports on a new paper by Halvard Buhung that thoroughly eviscerates an earlier paper by Burke et al which claimed that climate change resulting from greenhouse gas emissions was dramatically increasing civil wars in Africa, and this trend would continue in the near term. Nothing so far on the ABC.

It appears the only mention was by chronic climate alarmist Psychologist Stephan Lewandowsky who stated in an ABC Unleashed article "A recent peer-reviewed study showed that every extra degree temperature in a given year increases the likelihood of civil conflict in Africa by 50%. Scientists predict an additional human toll of 390,000 battle fatalities in Africa by 2030 because of climate change." We emailed Stephan to tell him the news.

Here's the conclusion from Roger's Post:

Just this week PNAS has published a new paper by Halvard Buhaug that thoroughly eviscerates Burke et al. Buhaug's conclusion is unambiguous (I do not see it at PNAS yet, but an early version is here in PDF):

The simple fact is this: climate characteristics and variability are unrelated to short-term variations in civil war risk in Sub-Saharan Africa. The primary causes of civil war are political, not environmental, and although environmental conditions may change with future warming, general correlates of conflicts and wars are likely to prevail. . . The challenges imposed by future global warming are too daunting to let the debate on social effects and required countermeasures be sidetracked by atypical, nonrobust scientific findings and actors with vested interests.

Burke has reacted strongly against Buhaug, accusing him of having cherry-picked his datasets (Note: Figure 2 in Buhaug is pretty convincing to me.).  While climate change may not be the cause of African civil wars, it does seem to be the cause of civil wars in academia.


Here's BBC's report: Climate shifts 'not to blame' for African civil wars

Before the ABC: Victorian floods

The Sydney Morning Herald, Saturday 8 August 1891, page 10

Inspired by: Hundreds evacuated in Victorian flood disaster

Before the ABC: an occasional snapshot of news in the days BABC

Update: Science literacy: ABC's Doh Doh Doh

Seems ABC agree that that confusing 3 out of 10 with 1 in 3 is an embarrassing mistake to make in a story about science literacy. (Our original post HERE).

Reply received 2 September 2010
I refer to your email of 30 July 2010 regarding a caption accompanying the News Online item ‘Science literacy at risk of extinction’, published the same day.

You are of course correct that the values ‘3 in 10’ and ‘one third’ are not equivalent.  ABC News have explained that picture captions, like headlines, try to capture the essence of a story in just a few words, and this is what occurred in this instance.  While we don’t believe it to be a significant error, in view of the story’s focus on scientific literacy, ABC News have decided to amend the caption to read ‘Nearly a third of people surveyed believed humans walked the Earth with dinosaurs’.

Yours sincerely,  
Head, Audience and Consumer Affairs    
Score +1

Before the ABC: Locust Plagues

The Sydney Morning Herald, Wednesday 2 April 1890, page 8

The Sydney Morning Herald, Wednesday 23 April 1890, page 8

The Sydney Morning Herald, Saturday 10 May 1890, page 12

The Sydney Morning Herald, Thursday 6 November 1890, page 5

The Sydney Morning Herald, Thursday 20 November 1890, page 5

The Sydney Morning Herald, Thursday 4 December 1890 Page 6

The Sydney Morning Herald, Friday 12 December 1890, page 5

Inspired by: Locusts hatch near Nyngan; Locust plagues could cost Australia billions

Before the ABC: an occasional snapshot of news in the days BABC

Mt Everest melting! But who says it's so? Apparently no-one!

ABC Audience and consumer affairs provide the following reply in regard to a complaint about its report "Melting ice making Everest climbs dangerous".

Received September 2, 2010

Thank you for your further emails of 3 and 9 August.
As previously advised, the ABC sourced the report it published as 'Melting ice making Everest climbs dangerous' from the BBC as part of an established agency arrangement.  When your complaint was received, Audience and Consumer Affairs considered whether a significant error had been made which warranted correction.  We noted that table 10.2 of the Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 did appear to show temperatures rising faster at Mount Everest than in the rest of South Asia.  (Ed. unfortunately it didn't  - see HERE and  HERE and HERE) We do not claim that this was the source relied upon by the BBC in their original story.
We have noted the material you have provided questioning the veracity of a statement in the report (HERE).  Since we have not been able to verify a source for the references to climate, and in view of the brevity and overall focus of the item, we have removed these references from the story and added an Editor's Note to this effect.

Yours sincerely,
Head, Audience and Consumer Affairs

The editorial note reads "Editor's note (September 1, 2010): A reference to studies of climate in the Himalayas has been removed from this story because the ABC was not able to verify its source."

Without a credible, verifiable source this story amounted to unsubstantiated rumour, and now without the climate aspect it is hardly newsworthy and probably should have been left in the editor's bin. If only ABC News had spent a small amount of time checking its sources before getting carried away with unsubstantiated claims of climate alarm, ABC's audience would not have been mislead.  We have yet to receive a response from the BBC. 

We thank ABC Audience and Consumer affairs for taking the time to properly investigate this matter.

Score +1

See also Himalayan warming – pulling another thread from IPCC’s fragile tapestry.

Our earlier reports on this story:

June 4 Mt Everest melting! But who says it's so?

August 4 Update: Mt Everest melting! But who says it's so?

August 9  Update 2: Mt Everest melting! But who says it's so?

ABC accept expert's half truths

ABC have replied to our complaint (Half truths in hot weather story) that covered factual inadequacies in a report by ABC environment report Sarah Clarke. The report 2010 on track to be hottest year was based on half truths promulgated by BOM's Dr David Jones. 

These included the following:

Half truth: “We actually got into the low 50s for parts of the Middle East and Pakistan a couple of weeks back”

Truth: Parts of the Middle East and Pakistan record temperatures into the low 50’s pretty much every year.

Half truth: Beijing the other day just fell short of 41.

Truth: The recorded temperature was 40.3 (104.5F).http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/photo/2010-07/05/content_10067517.htm. Note that this "record" is based on Beijing’s official temperature records commencing in 1951. See reports of earlier heat waves in the original post that indicate higher temperatures have been recorded in Beijing, including one at 46.1C..

Half truth: We're seeing 40s right up and down the US eastern seaboard.

Note 40 C is 104 F

Truth: Perhaps 40 at just one location!

Half Truth: We have seen an increase in heatwaves in Australia in the last 30 to 50 years

Truth: And what about the 30-50 years prior?

ABC respond (received 1/9/2010): "With regard to your concerns about the accuracy of statements made by Dr David Jones, a senior climatologist at the weather bureau's National Climate Centre, the ABC does not consider opinions or the views of a specialist commentator to constitute factual content; therefore, it is not subject to the accuracy provisions outlined in the ABC’s Editorial Policies.  However, while there is no obligation to fact check opinion, it is expected that the specialist commentator or expert is properly qualified to speak to the subject at hand, and that their views are clearly attributed. 

On review, Audience and Consumer Affairs is satisfied that Dr Jones is appropriately credentialed to comment on temperature trends, and that the views he expressed were properly attributed.  While noting the points you make, we are satisfied that there was sufficient context in the story, and that it is in keeping with the ABC’s standards for accuracy."

The lesson: Don't rely on ABC's biased experts to provide the full story.

In relation to Sarah Clarke's reporting Andrew Bolt has this piece that might interest: Modern Journalism.

More errors in ABC's climate time lie-Cobalt the new terror

In our initial complaint to the ABC regarding its web presentation "A journey through climate history" we indicated the timeline was "riddled with errors". We provided ABC with a list of 12 items that required attention. ABC subsequently made 7 corrections, but made no changes to sections we considered biased. We suggested that the Timeline undergo a rigorous review to pick up other problems "A thorough audit of the content is required." 

Here are 30 additional mistakes for ABC to correct. The most telling probably being the confusion between the symbols for Cobalt  (Co) and Carbon Dioxide (CO2). In its defective timeline ABC blame Cobalt for ocean acidification, the enhanced greenhouse effect and suggest the world is endeavouring to sequester Cobalt underground. It also seems the Keeling curve is also not a measure of carbon dioxide but of the rare Cobalt compound Co2!
There is also confusion between paleoanthropologists and archeologists; confusion between the roles of geology and archeology; confusion between the location of Vostok and Law Dome bases in Antarctica; along with software glitches that reveal an infinitely old universe, and numerous spelling and grammatical mistakes. "Riddled with errors"is an understatement.

30 additional errors - A Journey through climate history 

1. Under section “Deep Time” it is possible to scroll the timeline over 1000 billion years into the past (screenshot right). Current estimates for the age of the universe are two orders of magnitude less. That is some software glitch. 
2. Cryogenian Ice Age: Missing apostrophe, missing capitalization “earths orbit” 
3. Carboniferous Period: Missing apostrophe “weve” 
4. Karoo Ice Age: Inconsistency between statements of causation of glaciers between the Huronian Ice Age and the Karoo Ice Age. 
5. KT Boundary: “the KT boundary is an archeological term” the term is in fact geological. Also missing plural “researcher” 
6. Antarctic Ice Sheets: missing capitalization “the” 
7. Homo Habilis and Homo Ergaster: extraneous “-” in “hand-y man”. Discovered by paleoanthropologists not archeologists. 
8. Pleistocene Glaciations: The pattern of temperature, CO2 and methane follow an almost identical pattern, however changes in temperature precede changes in CO2 and methane concentrations by about 1000 years. 
9. Mount “Tobra” eruption: Should be “Toba”. Ice ages last longer than “6 years” 
10. Art and culture: unnecessary question mark “verbal? language” 
11. Olmec Culture: unnecessary capitalization “Volcanic” 
12. Carbon dioxide level 1000AD: Readability-“CO2 measure” should read “CO2 measurements”. Also misrepresents location of Law Dome, suggesting it is close to the Vostok Base. Coordinates: Law Dome -66° 44' 0.00", +112° 50' 0.00" Vostok 78°27′51.92″S 106°50′14.38″E. 
13. Carbon dioxide level 1250AD: Readability-“CO2 measure” should read “CO2 measurements” Also misrepresents location of Law Dome, suggesting it is close to the Vostok Base. Coordinates: Law Dome -66° 44' 0.00", +112° 50' 0.00" Vostok 78°27′51.92″S 106°50′14.38″E. 
14. Carbon dioxide level 1500AD: Readability -“CO2 measure” should read “CO2 measurements”. Also misrepresents location of Law Dome, suggesting it is close to the Vostok Base. Coordinates: Law Dome -66° 44' 0.00", +112° 50' 0.00" Vostok 78°27′51.92″S 106°50′14.38″E. 
15. Carbon dioxide level 1750AD: Readability -“CO2 Measure” should read “CO2 measurement”. Also, unnecessary capitalization “Measure”; and misrepresents location of Law Dome, suggesting it is close to the Vostok Base. Coordinates: Law Dome -66° 44' 0.00", +112° 50' 0.00" Vostok 78°27′51.92″S 106°50′14.38″E. 
16. Human population is 978 million (1800): shows a photo of Istanbul from 1880-1900 when world population is estimated at 1.65 billion. 
17. Carbon dioxide level 1800AD: Readability -“CO2 measure” should read “CO2 measurements”. Also misrepresents location of Law Dome, suggesting it is close to the Vostok Base. Coordinates: Law Dome -66° 44' 0.00", +112° 50' 0.00" Vostok 78°27′51.92″S 106°50′14.38″E. 
18. Carbon dioxide level 1850AD: Readability -“CO2 measure” should read “CO2 measurements”. Also misrepresents location of Law Dome, suggesting it is close to the Vostok Base. Coordinates: Law Dome -66° 44' 0.00", +112° 50' 0.00" Vostok 78°27′51.92″S 106°50′14.38″E. 
19. Ocean pH level is 8.17: This post indicates that cobalt is responsible for ocean acidification. The incorrect symbol has been used for oxygen in the chemical formula for carbon dioxide “Co2”. Should read CO2. Co is the chemical symbol for Cobalt. 
20. Carbon dioxide level 1900AD: Readability -“CO2 measure” should read “CO2 measurements”. Also misrepresents location of Law Dome, suggesting it is close to the Vostok Base. Coordinates: Law Dome -66° 44' 0.00", +112° 50' 0.00" Vostok 78°27′51.92″S 106°50′14.38″E. 
21. Nitrogen Fertilizers 1913: Suggests the Habar Bosch process has increased Cobalt levels. The incorrect symbol has been used for oxygen in the chemical formula for carbon dioxide “Co2”. Should read CO2. Co is the chemical symbol for Cobalt. 
22. Ocean pH level is 8.15: This post indicates that cobalt is responsible for ocean acidification. The incorrect symbol has been used for oxygen in the chemical formula for carbon dioxide “Co2”. Should read CO2. Co is the chemical symbol for Cobalt. 
23. Carbon dioxide level 1950AD: Readability -“CO2 measure” should read “CO2 measurements”. Also misrepresents location of Law Dome, suggesting it is close to the Vostok Base. Coordinates: Law Dome -66° 44' 0.00", +112° 50' 0.00" Vostok 78°27′51.92″S 106°50′14.38″E. 
24. 1958 The Keeling Curve: Does not measure atmospheric Cobalt levels. The incorrect symbol has been used for oxygen in the chemical formula for carbon dioxide “Co2”. Should read CO2. Co is the chemical symbol for Cobalt. 
25. Ocean pH level is 8.12: This post indicates that cobalt is responsible for ocean acidification. The incorrect symbol has been used for oxygen in the chemical formula for carbon dioxide “Co2”. Should read CO2. Co is the chemical symbol for Cobalt. 
26. Human population is 6 billion: Spelling “grown” should read “growth”. World population from 1800 to 1900 grew by about 170%, not 69%. 
27. Carbon capture and storage: Implies Cobalt being captured and stored. The incorrect symbol has been used for oxygen in the chemical formula for carbon dioxide “Co2”. Should read CO2. Co is the chemical symbol for Cobalt. 
28. Ocean pH level is 8.09: This post indicates that cobalt is responsible for ocean acidification. The incorrect symbol has been used for oxygen in the chemical formula for carbon dioxide “Co2”. Should read CO2. Co is the chemical symbol for Cobalt. 
29. The Kyoto Protocal. As far as we know the only organisation that can ratify the treaty is a nation state, use of the word “parties” in this context is not appropriate. 
30. The Great Global Warming Swindle: Capitalisation – “channel 4” should read “Channel 4”.