Update 2/7/2013: ABC provide the following regarding errors and omissions in this propaganda piece:
In summary, five captions have been corrected or modified. Of these: two were editing errors – captions 4# and 8#; one was the addition of extra information to avoid ambiguity – caption 1#; others were the inclusion of qualifications to reflect the uncertainties in predictions and analysis of past events – caption 2#; and finally one was an editing error and a decision to include a different estimate – caption 13#.
Remember Ian Allen stated "Captions were checked are consistent with the weight of scientific evidence." Crap they they were. Expect better next time you spend public money on propaganda Mr Allen..
In round up 3, we raised the issue of ABC science promoting a photo essay by activist organisation, The Climate Institute. We posed the following questions to the ABC:
In summary, five captions have been corrected or modified. Of these: two were editing errors – captions 4# and 8#; one was the addition of extra information to avoid ambiguity – caption 1#; others were the inclusion of qualifications to reflect the uncertainties in predictions and analysis of past events – caption 2#; and finally one was an editing error and a decision to include a different estimate – caption 13#.
Remember Ian Allen stated "Captions were checked are consistent with the weight of scientific evidence." Crap they they were. Expect better next time you spend public money on propaganda Mr Allen..
In round up 3, we raised the issue of ABC science promoting a photo essay by activist organisation, The Climate Institute. We posed the following questions to the ABC:
This photo essay is a promotion for the Climate Institute.
Is the ABC now providing free advertising for the Climate Institute?
Can the ABC clarify its relation with the climate institute?
The editor of the portal advises that the photo essay was chosen for it aesthetic qualities and editorial relevance to the site. No money was exchanged and the publication did not constitute advertising. Normal photo credits were published in line with standard procedures among publishers.
The ABC has no special relationship with the Climate Institute. It is treated the same as any other research or policy centre.
Can the editor please outline why he/she felt this was relevant to the Science site?
Did ABC check the captions for accuracy?
To which Ian Allen Executive Producer, Content, ABC Innovation responded thus:
ABC Corporate Affairs asked me to respond to your enquiry.
The photo gallery was published because it was topical (World Environment day) and because of the quality of the images. Captions were checked are consistent with the weight of scientific evidence.
Errors and
misrepresentation in captions to “Fragile World” presented on ABC Science June
2013.
Photo 1.
Caption: Haifoss, Iceland. High tension power cables snake
above an apparently pristine environment. Iceland relies on hydroelectricity
for clean energy, but declining runoff may affect the future energy supply.
(The Climate Institute: Michael Hall)
Errors and omissions:
“Iceland relies on
hydroelectricity for clean energy”. Iceland’s main energy source is from
geothermal sources: from Wikipedia: “About 81 percent of total primary
energy supply in Iceland is derived from domestically produced renewable
energy sources. In 2007, geothermal energy provided about 66
percent of primary energy, the share of hydropower was 15 percent,
and fossil fuels (mainly oil) 19 percent.” However most of Iceland’s
electricity is derived from hydropower: from Wikipedia: Renewable energy provides 100 percent of electricity production,
with about 70 percent coming from hydropower and 30 percent from geothermal
power”. To say “Iceland relies on
hydroelectricity for clean energy” is an oversimplification of the facts.
“declining runoff may
affect the future energy supply”. This would be true if runoff were in fact
declining. One study suggests the follow
in terms of long term run off from melt water: “Meltwater
runoff is expected to increase initially, but to peak after 40–50 years and then
to decline to present-day values 100 years from now.” Icelandic glaciers. Helgi
Björnsson and Finnur Pálsson JÖKULL No. 58, 2008, pp365-385.
Another study
indicates “ River runoff is
projected to increase by 25% between 1961--1900 and 2071--2100, mainly due to
increased melting of glaciers.”
Melt water run off from glaciers provides one source of
water to drive hydro plants the other is rainfall. If alarmist climate models
are correct then Iceland’s glaciers will eventually disappear. However the models
that forecast increased temperatures also forecast increases in rainfall over
Iceland. See image below from IPCC AR4. Note Iceland in area where models show
a precipitation increase in >66% to >90% of simulations.
One would think that construction of dams to capture this
rainfall would be one means of ensuring adequate water to drive hydrothermal
power plants more than 100 years in the future.
Conclusion. Potential
long term decline in runoff from glaciers is just one factor in Iceland’s hydro
energy mix. The caption is overly simplistic and design to elicit an emotional
response. This caption is propaganda and ABC’s Science unit should be embarrassed
to have run it without clarification.
Photo 2.
Lake Hume, Australia. Crazed mud and skeletal trees create a
stark landscape after severe drought. The Millennium drought, which ran from
1995 to 2012, was the worst recorded since settlement. It cost the Federal
Government some $4.5 billion in assistance. In southern Australia, rainfall is
in decline, while heat waves and drought are becoming more frequent. (Creative
Fellow at The Climate Institute: Michael Hall)
Errors and omissions:
“The Millennium drought, which ran from
1995 to 2012”. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural
and Resource
Economics and Sciences provide the following table for drought in Australia
form a 2012 report titled: “Drought
in Australia Context, policy and management”. This does not show a drought
extending from 1995 to 2012.
“It cost the Federal
Government some $4.5 billion in assistance”. This statement appears to be
derived from Wikipedia.
The estimate is derived from a newspaper
article in The Age published in 2012 which states: “Since 2001 the government has provided $4.5 billion in exceptional
circumstances (EC) assistance.” The amount therefore omits assistance provided
in the years 1995 to 2001. The cost is obviously more than the stated figure. The
document Drought
Policy in Australia provides the following chart of exceptional
circumstances payments. This suggests a figure of about $725 million paid
between 1994-1995 and 2000-2001. The corrected figure should therefore read “about $5.25 billion”
“In southern Australia, rainfall is in decline.” In fact the long
term trend is on the increase for southern Australia and for Australia as a
whole. From
BOM time series graphs.
“while heat waves and drought are becoming more frequent.”
Heat waves: an alternate image of
heatwave impacts:
Take
a boat trip: holidaymakers relax on Trigg Beach in WA after record temperatures
in 2007. Photo: Stewart Allen/Perth Now
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/news/gallery-fn78rwin-1226549358655?page=8#ixzz2WjAZSGJG
Drought not becoming more
frequent, note higher frequency between 1890s and 1940s in the figure below.
Conclusion: some significant factual errors that require
correction.
Photo3.
Anti Atlas, Morocco. Studies show
Morocco will be among countries most threatened by climate change, with more
frequent droughts and a shorter crop growing season. (Creative Fellow at The
Climate Institute: Michael Hall)
“more frequent droughts and a shorter crop growing season” This is
based on projections derived from climate models. How are those models
tracking?
Based on this how reliable are
the forecast changes to climate in Morocco?
Conclusion: The statement “more frequent droughts and a shorter
crop growing season”, does not provide a sense of the uncertainty in
projections of future climate based on model outputs. The statement in its
current form is therefore misleading and require qualification. For example “Climate models predict more frequent droughts
and a shorter crop growing season, however concerns about the validity of
climate models suggest significant uncertainty with this prediction.”
Photo 4.
Hvalnes, Iceland. Global warming is already having a
profound effect on glaciers worldwide and threatening to melt permafrost with
serious consequences for wildlife and people. Climate change may cause all of
Iceland's glaciers to disappear by 2100. (Creative Fellow at The Climate
Institute: Michael Hall)
“Climate change may cause all of Iceland's glaciers to disappear by
2100.”
Conclusion: This
is a ridiculous exaggeration. “Plausible
future climate scenarios, coupled with models of mass balance and ice dynamics,
suggest that the main icecaps will lose 25% to 35% of their present volume
within half a century, leaving only small glaciers on the highest peaks after
150–200 years.” Icelandic
glaciers. Helgi Björnsson and Finnur Pálsson JÖKULL No. 58, 2008, pp365-385.
See also http://www.vedur.is/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/hlidarefni/Tomas_COP-15.pdf
where glaciers are expected to be present more than 200years into the future.
Photo 5.
Newcastle, Australia. The MV
Pasha Bulka, a coal carrier that ran aground on Nobbies beach during a storm
2007. While this single event cannot be attributed to climate change, the
intensity of tropical cyclones is predicted to increase in the future. (The
Climate Institute: Michael Hall)
Conclusion: The 2007 storm was an east coast low and not a tropical
cyclone. See the CSIRO publication: “The
Pasha Bulker east coast low of 8 June 2007” It is misleading therefore to
link the grounding of the Pasha Bulka with Tropical Cyclones. Furthermore the
caption is misleading in omitting information about future cyclone activity.
BOM for instance provide the following
information about current trends: Trends in tropical cyclone activity in the
Australian region (south of the equator; 90–160°E) show that the total number
of cyclones appears to have decreased to the mid 1980s, and remained nearly
stable since. The number of severe tropical cyclones (minimum central pressure
less than 970 hPa) shows no clear trend over the past 40 years. And
indicate the following
(see 5.9.1) about future trends: Australian
region studies indicate a likely increase in the proportion of the tropical
cyclones in the more intense categories, but a possible decrease in the total number
of cyclones. Again these trends are based on climate model outputs that are
currently proving unreliable (see Photo 3).
Photo 6.
Jokulsarlon, Iceland. The 8,100
square kilometre Vatnajokull ice cap, where these ice fragments originated, is
the largest ice cap in Europe and is fast retreating as the climate warms.
(Creative Fellow at The Climate Institute: Michael Hall)
“largest ice cap in Europe” This is misleading. ABC provide an area
but the the Jokulsarlon Glacier is the largest by volume. The largest by area in
Europe the Austfonna
icecap in Norway at 8,105 km2 (8,492 km2 including Vegavonna).
Conclusion: some significant factual errors that require clarification.
Photo 7.
Victoria, Australia. Drought,
fierce winds and 47 degree Celsius temperatures led to the 2009 Black Saturday
bushfire, which killed over 170 people and millions of animals and plants. The
intensity and frequency of bushfire conditions is rising in south-eastern Australia.
(Creative Fellow at The Climate Institute: Michael Hall)
“The intensity and frequency of bushfire conditions is rising in
south-eastern Australia.”
CSIRO
tells a different story: “Since European settlement, the total amount of fire
in the landscape has declined. The bush land areas and particularly those
around Sydney, New South Wales, have thickened and accumulated more fuel. As a
result, the infrequent fires that now occur under extreme weather burn much
more intensely and have a significant impact on the built environment.”
Conclusion: Significant over simplification of the science clarification required.
Photo 8.
Tasmania, Australia. Old growth
deforestation in the Upper Florentine 70 kilometres from Hobart. Deforestation
releases around 1.5 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide into the air each year.
Curbing deforestation and restoring forests are a key means of avoiding
dangerous climate change. (Creative Fellow at The Climate Institute: Michael
Hall)
“Deforestation releases around 1.5 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide
into the air each year.” This statement appears to be a misrepresentation
of a wikipedia entry. The Wikipedia
entry on deforestation states: “Scientists also state that tropical deforestation
releases 1.5 billion tons of carbon each year into the atmosphere.[45] “ Of course 1.5 billion
tonnes of C would equate to about 5.5 billion tonnes of CO2. A simple error but
one commonly made. Surprising to find ABC Science accepted an these at face
value.
Based on a 2009
article in Nature Geoscience it appears the figure of 1.5 billion tonnes of
C has been revised down to 1.2bt, which would equate to about 4 billion tonnes
of CO2.
Conclusion: factual error requiring correction, clarification required.
Photo 9.
Yangtze River delta, China. The
muddied waters attest to the loss of topsoil upriver. Greater China accounts
for 30 per cent of the global volume of containerised exports. Emissions from
shipping are currently some 1 billion tonnes annually. (Creative Fellow at The
Climate Institute: Michael Hall)
“Emissions from shipping are
currently some 1 billion tonnes annually” presumably this refers to CO2. This
figure differs from official figures released by the International Maritime
Organisation who provide the following information: “According to the Second IMO GHG
Study 2009, which is the most comprehensive and authoritative assessment of
the level of GHG emitted by ships, international shipping was estimated to have
emitted 870 million tonnes, or about 2.7% of the global man-made emissions of
CO2 in 2007. Exhaust gases are the primary source of GHG emissions from ships
and carbon dioxide is the most important GHG, both in terms of quantity and of
global warming potential.”
Conclusion: factual error requiring correction.
Photo 10.
A man works bailing discarded
plastic in Hubei Province, Central China. A significant proportion of plastic
dumped in landfills ends up in the sea, injuring and killing marine wildlife.
(Creative Fellow at The Climate Institute: Michael Hall)
No comments.
Photo 11.
Brahman cattle in the Northern
Territory, Australia. Emissions from livestock account for approximately 10 per
cent of Australia's total greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, livestock
health is likely to be impacted by rising temperatures and changed weather
patterns. (Creative Fellow at The Climate Institute: Michael Hall)
No comments
Photo 12.
The Super Pit in Kalgoorlie,
Western Australia. Up to 850,000 ounces of gold are taken from this mine each
year. The hole is approximately 3.7 kilometres long, 1.5 kilometres wide and
480 metres deep, big enough to bury Uluru. (Creative Fellow at The Climate
Institute: Michael Hall)
No comment.
Photo 13.
Latrobe Valley, Australia. Loy
Yang Power Station emits 14.4 million tonnes of greenhouse gases each year.
(Creative Fellow at The Climate Institute: Michael Hall)
“Loy Yang Power Station emits 14.4 million tonnes of greenhouse gases
each year.”
There are two Power stations at
Loy Yang A and B. AGL provide
the following information about Loy Yang A: The Loy Yang A Power Station has a
carbon intensity of around 1.3 tCO2e/MWh. In
2011 Loy Yang A produced 14,925 GWh (=14925000MWh) of life enhancing electricity. Based on the
stated carbon intensity figures this would amount to a potential CO2 output of 19.4
million tonnes. Clearly the figures provided by the Carbon Institute are a
little out.
Conclusion: factual error requiring correction.
Photo 14.
Oil wells in California. Last
year some $674billion was spent to find and develop new fossil fuels like oil,
coal and gas. Much of this must stay in the ground if we are to have a good
chance of avoiding global warming of 2 degrees Celsius. (Creative Fellow at The
Climate Institute: Michael Hall)
“avoiding global warming of 2 degrees Celsius” This appears to be
based on faulty climate sensitivity figures. Recent
estimates of the climate’s sensitivity to CO2 suggest previous estimates
are exaggerated. This buys much more time to alter energy sources in the
future. The caption grossly over simplifies issue.
Photo 15.
Wind turbines in Southern
California. In 2011, for the first time, investments in renewable energy
sources outstripped those in fossil fuels. Over the long term, investment in
clean energy shows strong long-term growth and is projected to reach $630
billion annually by 2030, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. (Creative
Fellow at The Climate Institute: Michael Hall)
No comment.
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