Saturday, October 23, 2010

Missing News: No skill in climate modelling

Earlier this year we reported that ABC failed to cover problems with IPCC climate models that predicted both more and less rainfall in Eastern Australia. Now a new study in Hydrological Sciences Journal compares model outputs with observed data finding "that model projections at point scale are poor, results show that the spatially integrated projections are also poor".

See: A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data 

Authors: G. G. Anagnostopoulosa; D. Koutsoyiannisa; A. Christofidesa; A. Efstratiadisa; N. Mamassisa

Abstract

We compare the output of various climate models to temperature and precipitation observations at 55 points around the globe. We also spatially aggregate model output and observations over the contiguous USA using data from 70 stations, and we perform comparison at several temporal scales, including a climatic (30-year) scale. Besides confirming the findings of a previous assessment study that model projections at point scale are poor, results show that the spatially integrated projections are also poor. 
Once again ABC provide its audience the climate science it wants you to see.

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