Another cyclone forecast BOMs out

A characteristic of ABC News is it's lack of inquiry in testing the outcomes of predictions on climatic events made by experts. One would think that the outcome of predictions would be newsworthy given the amount of money the government allocates to our premier weather agency.

The Bureau of Meteorology annually release an outlook of the coming tropical cyclone season in Spring. We have previously  looked at the accuracy of BOM's cyclone forecasts and ABC's reluctance to cover the disparity between forecast and outcomes, but have not had a chance to follow up on recent pronouncements.

Looking at the 2016-2017 season last year ABC reported that "Weather forecasters are expecting an average to above-average number of tropical cyclones to form this season in the region that includes the Northern Territory."

BOM claimed with a "high" level of accuracy :

• The Australian region has a 67% chance of having more tropical cyclones than average, meaning a 33% chance of having fewer tropical cyclones than average. Typically, around four tropical cyclones cross the Australian coastline in a season. Outlook accuracy for the Australian region is high.
• 
  

So what was the outcome? It seems BOM no longer produce the Darwin Tropical Diagnostic Statement that provided a near real time summary of cyclone activity. Perhaps its buried somewhere else in it's labyrinthine web page. However Wikipedia produce a season summary:  

Once again the numbers paint a poor picture of BOM's cyclone forecast skill, but ABC don't think this is newsworthy.

ABC News: Australia's Orwellian network

ABC NEWS: BRINGING YOU CLOSER TO ORWELL'S 1984 EACH PASSING DAY
ABC report on the latest thwarted terror attack in Australia. Hmm perhaps something is missing? Let's do a search...nope nothing to see there. (Updated -see below)

Lets see if the Sydney Morning Herald can provide more information? 

Hmm, nothing there either?

Let's check The Oz...

Oh! that kind of terrorist.

Even the Washington Post can say it!

“In a time of deceit telling the truth is a revolutionary act.” 

― George Orwell

UPDATE:
Shortly after this piece was posted ABC's report is updated to include the I word!  (Hmm, perhaps someone in Ultimo is a reader?).

Baird's religion report: illogical, unfair and quite possibly inaccurate.

If it was submitted by a trainee journalist Julia Baird's one sided report on domestic violence and the Christian church in Australia would have rated a fail and tought the young scribe some lasting lessons about objectivity, due diligence in research and balance in reporting. Instead the writer is in denial about her piece claiming on twitter:"For the record: there was not a single error in our piece on domestic violence and the church. Am about to publish a guide to the research."

Pieces published in The Australian today (see below) expose Baird's reporting, that resulted from a year of research (at your expense), as lacking balance, lacking inquiry and lacking judgement. The sad thing is that through her poor reporting the focus of the article has shifted to Baird herself and away from the victims of domestic violence.

It seems making themselves NEWS is becoming an increasing feature of reporting at the ABC of late. Take a big bow Chris Uhlmann.

ABC church report ‘misrepresented us’, say experts

Two US experts whose research was relied on by an ABC 7.30 television report claiming “sporadic” Christian church-goers are the worst wife-beaters say they were misrepresented, and the real message is that regular church ­attendance discourages domestic violence.

Phoenix Seminary theology and ethics professor Steven Tracy and sociologist Bradford Wilcox also said the ABC journalists said to have spent a year working on the religion and domestic violence series did not contact them either before or since the program went to air last week.

Facts go missing in ABC report on ‘violent Christians’
The ABC reports that this article was based on a year-long investigation. So they had a year to get this right.

They could have analysed existing ­national surveys, worked with ­serious scholars to conduct quantitative, nationally representative research on religion and domestic violence in Australia, or even fielded their own survey of Australian couples. But Baird and Gleeson, and their bosses at the ABC, did none of this hard work. ­Instead, they relied largely on ­research done in the US to make sweeping and illogical claims about religion and domestic violence in Australia.

So we really know nothing about how common domestic ­violence is among Catholic, Protestant, Muslim, Buddhist and secular Aussies, what role relig­ious attendance plays in increasing or reducing the odds of abuse in Australia, or whether Australian clergy do a better or worse job of counselling abuse victims than other important figures in victims’ lives — such as psychologists and psychiatrists. That the reader is left so ignorant of the basic facts is perhaps the most scandalous and disappointing aspect of the ABC’s year-long investigation

Acknowledgement to Western civilisation

All manner of meetings and openings these days seem to come with an acknowledgement to traditional "owners" or "custodians" of the land upon which the meeting is to be held.

A typical acknowledgement might read something like this:

 I’d like to begin by acknowledging the Traditional Owners/Custodians of the land on which we meet today. I would also like to pay my respects to Elders past and present. 

All well and good. While the acknowledgement pays respect to the nation's first inhabitants it fails to pay respect to our collective human history and the roots of our civilisation, without which there would be no civil society to give rise to the meeting in the first place. With this and the concept of inclusion in mind, in future, before a meeting commences I will read out the following:

I acknowledge and pay respect to the actions, sacrifice, wisdom, traditions and curiosity of our ancestors. Their collective efforts over centuries helped evolve our western civilisation, giving birth to the liberal society that makes this meeting possible.

Many variations on this theme are possible and an Acknowledgement to Western civilisation could be modified to suit any meeting or situation. 

Please add you own version if you so desire.

Don't mention the I word

Only the ABC could post a  "major" report on religion and violence against women, the result of a 12 month "investigation", and fail to include Islam in the mix. One is left with the impression that ABC's "investigative" reporters actually believe the tripe spouted by Yassmin Abdel-Magied when she described Islam as the most feminist religion on Q and A this year? What a joke, that comes as usual at the tax payers expense.

ABC-don't mention the I word

Quadrant leaking water from Guthrie's confected outrage

Got to give it to ABC's new CEO Michelle Guthrie, she's a much better poker player than Mark Scott or the bed wetting pansies who currently edit Quadrant Magazine and sit on its board. Her confected outrage at a hyperbolic satire by Quadrant's Roger Franklin, written in response to outrageous and erroneous claims about Islamic terrorists by soft headed Q and A panelists, has resulted in removal of the article and a grovelling apology from Editor in Chief Keith Windshuttle along with a sycophantic display by board member Nick Cater on ABC's the Drum.

Roger Franklin's piece (still available on the catallaxy blog) hammered home the ridiculous, ill informed opinions on radical Islam that appear all too regularly on the ABC's Q and A program, and go unchallenged by its muddle minded host Tony Jones. To self serving questions from the Australian Taliban David Hicks, giving a platform to Zaky Mallah who pleaded guilty to threatening to kill ASIO officers, and the outrageous notion that Islam is the most feminist religion, we can now add Q and A's view that refrigerators are more dangerous than Islamist terrorists.

Michelle Guthrie's complete over reaction to Franklin's article was designed to deflect criticism of long standing, incipient politically correct green-left group think, poor editorial judgements and lack of fact checking that characterises ABC's prominent current affairs and news platforms. In pointing out ABC's poor judgement and rank hypocrisy Quadrant's chief editor and its board members have absolutely nothing to apologise for.

Unfortunately the unnecessary apology and censorship have ripped a big hole in Quadrant's reputation as a champion of free speech.

Perhaps the board and chief editor can take time to read what the magazine stands for:

Quadrant is uncompromisingly in favour of freedom of thought and expression. While insisting on civilised discourse, it opposes any political, academic or religious tendency that wants to suppress freedom of speech. It does not support diversity for diversity’s sake nor does it mindlessly endorse tolerance of all viewpoints, especially those that do not return the compliment. Rather, it understands tolerance to mean the willingness to listen to unpopular or unorthodox views that are well argued, while in practice taking tolerance to mean the willingness to live and let live, which is so typical of Australian life.

uncompromising

[uhn-kom-pruh-mahy-zing]

adjective

1. not admitting of compromise or adjustment of differences; making no concessions; inaccessible to flexible bargaining; unyielding: an uncompromising attitude.

2. without reservation or exception; undeviating; absolute, as believing in or adhering to a principle, position, or the like: an uncompromising advocate for free speech.

100 Missing News items

Our list of ABC's missing climate news is now over 100 items long (this despite our extended WEB). To find out what you may have missed check out our Missing News page on the right. Or simply Click the link: MISSING NEWS.