Sinking islands: Part 3 Down the memory hole

The Courier-Mail (Brisbane, Qld. : 1933 - 1954), 

Friday 2 April 1948, page 3

ACMA reply to a complaint about an ABC report that omitted key historical information. Based on ACMA's finding it seems ABC have carte blanche to throw important historical facts and context down the memory hole.


A number of low lying islands in Torres Strait are prone to inundation during king tides and storms. No surprise, that's what happens when your front door is only a few feet above the high tide mark. In the late 1940s the islands of Saibai and Boigu near the PNG coast were evacuated following tidal erosion caused by summer storms. The islanders were resettled on Cape York. For some reason ABC chose not to include this critical historical information in a report broadcast by The World Today in January titled "Fears Islanders may soon be forced out of their homes". In their alarming report the ABC claimed:
"The rise in sea levels and an increase in extreme weather events in the region make the islands at this time of the year particularly vulnerable."
While we agreed the islands are vulnerable to inundation, the historical information makes it clear that the vulnerability is not new, and does not arise as a consequence of any change in local or global climate, as ABC's report would have us believe.


Our complaint to the ABC about the missing information critical to placing the recent inundations into historical context was rejected (see earlier posts HERE and HERE and HERE) and we applied to ACMA for a review contending that:
The report failed to include reference to previous devastating inundation of the islands that occurred in 1948 that was so extreme that it resulted in the evacuation of islanders to the Queensland mainland... This information appears highly relevant to the report and l suggest it is highly remise of the ABC to have omitted mention of it in their report. This is especially so, given the facts surrounding the 1948 inundation and evacuation could have been conveyed so simply... 
The audience would rely on ABC‘s reporters to include all the relevant information. including reference to previous similar events of relevance (such as the previous inundation and resulting evacuation in 1948). If the audience put weight on the claimed reputation of The Worid Today as a comprehensive current affairs program it may have been lead to the false conclusion that no such previous events existed. 

As such, through the omission of critical, relevant historical information, that constitutes a lack of accurate reporting, it is my contention that AEC has mislead its audience. This is in breach of its Code of [Practice] standard 2.2...

ACMA's Kathleen Silleri ruled in favour of the ABC finding:

"The ACMA notes the complainant’s concerns that the reporter could have provided more specific historical context, such as citing the occurrence of a flood of significant magnitude to the islands in 1948.3 However, it is the ACMA’s view that previous flooding was referred to, either directly or indirectly, and that the matters covered in the interview were appropriate given the duration of the report (3 min 11 sec) and the nature of the report. The ACMA does not consider the lack of any direct reference to the previous inundation in 1948 materially misleading. 

The ACMA considers the ordinary reasonable listener would have concluded the program was, on the whole, concerned with the current issue of funding for restoration of island seawalls and the consequences of the seawalls not being repaired as a matter of urgency. The ACMA is satisfied that the presentation of factual content would not have misled the ordinary reasonable listener when presented in context."

What a weird media landscape we currently reside in, where a self described  "comprehensive current affairs program" can send key facts to the furnace and get away with it.

ACMA: as effective in upholding journalistic standards at the ABC, as a wet sponge is at fending off hungry lions.

ACMA's Investigation Report No. 2787 should be able from their website soon (ed. why does it take so long???)

Update:Penguins thrive but ABC frets

photo source

Earlier this year ABC's Karen Barlow took up a berth on the Aurora Australis that might have been occupied by a rational scientist. She breathlessly reported on penguin problems in Antarctica.

KAREN BARLOW: There are dire predictions for some penguin species. Of the 17 types of penguins, some, like the African and Galapagos Penguins, are classed as threatened or vulnerable - and according to a climate model study by the private Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, Emperor Penguins could be virtually extinct by the end of the century. Generally, penguin populations on the Antarctic Peninsula below South America are decreasing, while Adelie numbers in East Antarctica, below Australia, are on the rise. Over-fishing of the penguin's main diet, krill, is having an effect, but scientists say climate change is also a factor. 


Here's a recent headline from Science Daily (13 April, 2012):

Twice as Many Emperor Penguins as Thought in Antarctica, First-Ever Penguin Count from Space Shows

A new study using satellite mapping technology reveals there are twice as many emperor penguins in Antarctica than previously thought. 

Link to study

History missing from sinking island piece-Part 2

The following correspondence received a little while ago on history missing from ABC's sinking island piece. This posted in the public interest. We now look towards ACMA to provide an independent review.

First the complaintDate: 16/01/12
Subject: factual error and lack of inquiry
Your Comments: The World Today report titled "Fears Islanders may soon be forced out of their homes" claimed that "The rise in sea levels and an increase in extreme weather events in the region make the islands at this time of the year particularly vulnerable."
Based on tide gauge data in the Torres Strait local sea levels are not rising. (see...http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/1749.php) There is also no evidence for an increase in extreme weather events in the region.
The low lying Islands are vulnerable to inundation and if ABC's reporter had bothered to look they would have found reports of islanders being evacuated in the late 1940s, a fact that would have been of interest to ABC's audience.
see http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/49657129
Please substantiate the claims made in relation to sea level rise and extreme weather events. Please also add an editorial line that makes it clear these islands have been evacuated in the past.

From Alan Sunderland
date: Tue, Feb 21, 2012 at 9:33 PM
subject: factual error & lack of inquiry
Dear Mr Hendrickx,
Thanks for the feedback.
Based on the information provided to me by the program team, I don’t believe the ABC report on the Torres Strait Islanders broadcast on January 16 was accurate and not misleading.
Here are some points in response:
Two recent papers which provide climate projections for the region which include details about the number of extreme weather events that are likely to occur and have an impact on Torres Strait Islands. They are: “An assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation for the Torres Strait Islands, Australia” (2010) published in Climatic Change Journal, and “Observed and future of the Torres Strait Region” (CSIRO report from 2010). Specifically the reports state that the observed ‘above average’ rate of sea level rise is of 6mm a year, compared to the global average of 3mm a year. This observation is highlighted in the reports as particularly concerning.
The CSIRO report (2010) concludes that climate change impacts will affect daily life on the Islands, by impacting on their economic livelihoods.
Dr. Donna Green, interviewed in this story for The World Today, has completed a study into climate change affects on the Torres Strait Islands. For her report, published late last year (titled: What Legal Recourse Do Non State Islands Have To Obtain Resources to Adapt to Climate Change), Dr. Green conducted an analysis of extreme sea level heights for Mer Island. It suggests that by 2050, there will be an increase in the frequency of extreme sea level events that are usually associated with inundation events on the Island. The report also anticipates that the present ‘one in one hundred year’ sea level height of 1.43m above mean sea level may be exceeded on average at least every 10 years by 2050.
The IPCC has acknowledged in their most recent report that small island states are disproportionately impacted by climate change due to their susceptibility to rising sea levels
These impacts have also been acknowledged by Federal Parliament. A private members motion, passed in August 2011, reads that the House: “recognises that the Torres Strait Islander people have been experiencing flood devastation for the past 4 years.... and that “in light of evidence of continued flooding on the outer islands due to king tidal surges, calls on government to commit to restore and rebuild damaged seawalls.”
We didn’t broadcast information about the islands being inundated in the 1940s, but it was clear that inundation has been a problem in the past – the reference to the sea walls makes this clear.
Our understanding is not that inundation is a completely new phenomena, but rather to do with the increase in the frequency of inundation events, which is linked to climate change (rising sea levels, and increase in extreme weather events.)
We think this was a fair and balanced report based on published scientific research.

Alan Sunderland
Head of Policy & Staff Development
ABC News

From ABC NEWS WATCH
Tue, Feb 21, 2012 at 10:19 PM
subject: Re: factual error & lack of inquiry
Thanks Alan,
I'll reply in more detail in the near future at ABC NEWS WATCH where your email below (above) will be repeated in full.
The information you have provided does nothing to justify the omission of the historical data from the report that would have given ABC's audience important historical context to the recent alarming reports. Your understanding may be that "inundation is (not) a completely new phenomena", however your audience were not given the chance to make this assessment due to your reporter's omission of the historical facts. Sea walls are built for a variety of reasons, hence your claim that "We didn’t broadcast information about the islands being inundated in the 1940s, but it was clear that inundation has been a problem in the past – the reference to the sea walls makes this clear." does not hold. Why not just simply state that similar inundations had resulted in complete evacuation of islands in the 1940s? I am not a journalist however I would have thought that providing historical context such as this would be essential in a report of this nature and would constitute "sound" journalism. Not having the pressures of commercial news networks I would have thought ABC would have had the capacity to stretch a little further and provide more information on this one. I remember it doing so in the past.
The ABC report also did not provide any information about the large uncertainties involved in IPCC sea level projections that you describe below, or that recent sea level trends around the Australian continent appear to be decelerating and hence call into question IPCC sea level projections used by Dr Green (see for instance HERE). As such it was missing in factual information, biased, lacked balance and like a lot of other recent ABC news articles on climate change it was simply misleading.
You are of course free to believe otherwise. It's amazing what people believe in this day and age.

Regards

Marc Hendrickx
Editor ABC NEWS WATCH

Further posts on this when our complaint to ACMA has been submitted. We are yet to fully evaluate the CSIRO documents provided by the ABC as the are not relevant to the lack of historical context. Looking at the CSIRO report "Observed and Future Climates of the Torres Strait Region" there is also no historical context. No mention of previous inundations or evacuations. The report  An assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation for the Torres Strait Islands, Australia provides only a brief paragraph of the 1948 inundation and evacuation. It also mentions in regard to more recent inundations in 2005 that did not result in evacuations: "Although the recent inundation events have not been linked to climate change,they serve as an indication of the kind of events that may occur more frequently in the future as a result of mean sea level rise." 

We note that the reporter in question, the oddly named Hagar Cohen, has provided a longer report on the issue for Background Briefing on the weekend. This time towards the end of the 40 minute program the inundations and evacuations of the 1940s gained a mention. They deserved a little more prominence but its an improvement on the previous effort.

History still missing from sinking islands piece

Update on our post (History missing from sinking island piece) about the absence of important historical information from an ABC story about Islands in the Torres Strait. We received the following from ABC's Alan Sunderland Head of Policy & Staff Development at ABC News. Based on his response I can safely say that at ABC News: First they write the story, then do the research and then they still leave out the important bits.

from: Alan Sunderland
date: Tue, Feb 21, 2012 at 9:33 PM
subject: factual error & lack of inquiry

Dear Mr Hendrickx,

Thanks for the feedback.

Based on the information provided to me by the program team, I don’t believe the ABC report on the Torres Strait Islanders broadcast on January 16 was accurate and not misleading. 

Here are some points in response:

1. Two recent papers which provide climate projections for the region which include details about the number of extreme weather events that are likely to occur and have an impact on Torres Strait Islands. They are: “An assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation for the Torres Strait Islands, Australia” (2010) published in Climatic Change Journal, and “Observed and future of the Torres Strait Region” (CSIRO report from 2010). Specifically the reports state that the observed ‘above average’ rate of sea level rise is of 6mm a year, compared to the global average of 3mm a year. This observation is highlighted in the reports as particularly concerning.
2. The CSIRO report (2010) concludes that climate change impacts will affect daily life on the Islands, by impacting on their economic livelihoods.
3. Dr. Donna Green, interviewed in this story for The World Today, has completed a study into climate change affects on the Torres Strait Islands. For her report, published late last year (titled: What Legal Recourse Do Non State Islands Have To Obtain Resources to Adapt to Climate Change), Dr. Green conducted an analysis of extreme sea level heights for Mer Island. It suggests that by 2050, there will be an increase in the frequency of extreme sea level events that are usually associated with inundation events on the Island. The report also anticipates that the present ‘one in one hundred year’ sea level height of 1.43m above mean sea level may be exceeded on average at least every 10 years by 2050.
4. The IPCC has acknowledged in their most recent report that small island states are disproportionately  impacted by climate change due to their susceptibility to rising sea levels
5. These impacts have also been acknowledged by Federal Parliament. A private members motion, passed in August 2011, reads that the House: “recognises that the Torres Strait Islander people have been experiencing flood devastation for the past 4 years.... and that  “in light of evidence of continued flooding on the outer islands due to king tidal surges, calls on government to commit to restore and rebuild damaged seawalls.”

We didn’t broadcast information about the islands being inundated in the 1940s, but it was clear that inundation has been a problem in the past – the reference to the sea walls makes this clear. 

Our understanding is not that inundation is a completely new phenomena, but rather to do with the increase in the frequency of inundation events, which is linked to climate change (rising sea levels, and increase in extreme weather events.)

We think this was a fair and balanced report based on published scientific research.

Alan Sunderland Head of Policy & Staff DevelopmentABC News

Our response:
Thanks Alan,

I'll reply in more detail in the near future at ABC NEWS WATCH where your email below (above) will be repeated in full. 

The information you have provided does nothing to justify the omission of the historical data from the report that would have given ABC's audience important historical context to the recent alarming reports. Your understanding may be that "inundation is (not) a completely new phenomena", however your audience were not given the chance to make this assessment due to your reporter's omission of the historical facts. Sea walls are built for a variety of reasons, hence your claim that "We didn’t broadcast information about the islands being inundated in the 1940s, but it was clear that inundation has been a problem in the past – the reference to the sea walls makes this clear." does not hold. Why not just simply state that similar inundations had resulted in complete evacuation of islands in the 1940s? I am not a journalist however I would have thought that providing historical context such as this would be essential in a report of this nature and would constitute "sound" journalism. Not having the pressures of commercial news networks I would have thought ABC would have had the capacity to stretch a little further and provide more information on this one. I remember it doing so in the past.

The ABC report also did not provide any information about the large uncertainties involved in IPCC sea level projections that you describe below, or that recent sea level trends around the Australian continent appear to be decelerating and hence call into question IPCC sea level projections used by Dr Green (see for instance HERE). As such it was missing in factual information, biased, lacked balance and like a lot of other recent ABC news articles on climate change it was simply misleading. 

You are of course free to believe otherwise. It's amazing what people believe in this day and age.

Regards

Marc

Penguins thrive but ABC frets

ABC's Karen Barlow takes up a berth on the Aurora Australis that might have been occupied by a rational scientist. She breathlessly reports on penguin problems in Antarctica.

KAREN BARLOW: There are dire predictions for some penguin species. Of the 17 types of penguins, some, like the African and Galapagos Penguins, are classed as threatened or vulnerable - and according to a climate model study by the private Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, Emperor Penguins could be virtually extinct by the end of the century. Generally, penguin populations on the Antarctic Peninsula below South America are decreasing, while Adelie numbers in East Antarctica, below Australia, are on the rise. Over-fishing of the penguin's main diet, krill, is having an effect, but scientists say climate change is also a factor.

The Woods Holes Study was based on Computer modelling results for just one colony! The British Antarctic Survey recently found 10 new Emperor Penguin colonies using high resolution satellite data to spot guano patches. ( However, they noted that the satellite pictures could not pick up smaller colonies of fewer than 500 pairs of emperor penguins.) So there is likely to be more smaller colonies, they are likely to move around and change location. The basis of the WH study falls over at the first hurdle.

In regard to the Adelie Penguins we hear the following:

COLIN SOUTHWELL: There's fast ice growing out to 10 miles from the breeding colonies, so the penguins have to travel a lot further to get to their foraging ground than they would normally.

Yet, inexplicably

LOUISE EMMERSON: Well I didn't think that the population was going to be quite as big as it is, and we've been walking around with the intention of counting all the penguin breeding colonies, but it's not going to be possible in the limited time that we're going to be here, so we will do some helicopter surveys to finish off the counts.

Karen Balrow suggests disappearing sea ice a problem:

KAREN BARLOW: So how can sea ice loss for one lot of penguins be good, and for the others bad? Dr Collin Southwell said a melt on the Antarctic Peninsula may have gone too far.

The long term trend for sea ice in Antarctica not provided in ABC report? It's UP!

Here's the statistics from Cryosphere Today – Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois:

Only the ABC could take a good news story and and turn it into guano.

History missing from sinking island piece

A number of low lying islands in Torres Strait are prone to inundation during king tides and storms. No surprise, that's what happens when your front door is only a few feet above the high tide mark. In the late 1940s the islands of Saibai and Boigu near the PNG coast were evacuated following tidal erosion caused by summer storms. The islanders were resettled on Cape York.

The Courier-Mail (Brisbane, Qld. : 1933 - 1954), Friday 2 April 1948, page 3

For some reason ABC chose not to include this critical historical information in a report broadcast by The World Today titled "Fears Islanders may soon be forced out of their homes". In their alarming report the ABC claimed:
"The rise in sea levels and an increase in extreme weather events in the region make the islands at this time of the year particularly vulnerable."
While we agree the islands are vulnerable to inundation, the historical information makes it clear that the vulnerability is not new, and does not arise as a consequence of any change in local or global climate, as ABC would have us believe.

These claims (of rising sea levels and increases in extreme weather events) are not substantiated. In regard to rising sea levels, there are few tide gauges in the area that could be used to support the contention that local sea level is rising. Looking at the tide chart below for Turtle Island (near Thursday Island) from the  Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL). It appears that local sea level in this part of Torres Strait has been fluctuating since records began. But there is not much data to go on.

http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/1749.php

As ABC do not quote any authority for their claim that extreme weather events are increasing in the region we assume they just made that one up. Wouldn't be the first time!

We have requested ABC substantiate the claims made in their report, and to include mention of the historically significant inundation events in the online version.

PS. A related piece from last year titled Torres Strait pleads for climate change action, leads with the following sentence: Torres Strait Islanders have warned Prime Minister Julia Gillard they could become Australia's first climate change refugees if she continues to ignore the effects of rising sea levels in the area. 
Amazing how much can be debunked with a little historical context and a little data!

ABC shrinks quality of science reporting

mini ABC

In a story headlined "Climate change downsizing fauna, flora" ABC Science reported on the results of a new study published in Nature Climate Change (Shrinking body size as an ecological response to climate change)
that suggested (according to the ABC) that "Climate change is reducing the size of many animal and plant species". The remainder of the story reads like a press release, with no critical input from ABC's groupthinkers.


The Australian covered the same story with a report from AP under the headline "Warming blamed for shrinking animals" that included this helpful caveat missing from ABC's typically one sided report:
But Yoram Yom-Tov, a zoologist at Tel Aviv University whose studies Dr Sheridan used in her research, said many species were shrinking, and global warming was not the sole reason.
"Changes in body size are a normal phenomenon," he said.
"Besides, most species will adapt to climate change."

The Sydney Morning Herald reported a day earlier with "Global warming blamed for shrinking species" by Seth Borenstein included a similar cautionary statement:

But Yoram Yom-Tov, a zoologist at Tel Aviv University whose studies Sheridan used in her research, said many species are shrinking, and you can't blame global warming exclusively.
"Changes in body size are a normal phenomenon," Yom-Tov wrote in an email. "When conditions are favourable, they increase in size or reproduce at higher rates, and when conditions are deteriorating, they do the opposite. I think that most species will adapt to climate change and survive. No need for alarm."

And Stanford biologist Terry Root, an expert in climate change, said the study's conclusions "seem kind of far-fetched".

ABC's uncritical report states "Fossil records, they found, were unambiguous: past periods of rising temperatures had led both marine and land organisms to become progressively smaller." (ed I guess that would account for the size of the Dinosaurs). 

Oddly just last week ABC were suggesting that cooling, not warming was responsible for shrinking things: from "Climate change 'shrank people and economy'"
"The Little Ice Age shrank people and the economy, leading to a general crisis in the 17th Century, say researchers."

ABC News: shrinking the quality of science reporting (at least they're consistent!).

Update Nothing abnormal about NT fires

ABC provide the reply below to our complaint regarding their claims CO2 releases from NT fires are abnormal. Tainted as it is by a groupthink mentality, lack of balance and failure to live up to normal journalistic standards on environmental reporting, ABC's exceptionally low standards are fast becoming the norm. (To see how totally normal this year's fire season is, skip to the links below ABC's response-title in red).

Here's their response (in italics) received October 11, our comments in bold:
Thank you for your email of October 7 concerning the story "Science counts carbon cost of Red Centre fires".
As your correspondence raised concerns of a lack of accuracy, your email was referred to Audience and Consumer Affairs for consideration and response. The unit is separate and independent from ABC program areas (as separate as Chang and Eng) and is responsible for investigating complaints alleging a broadcast or publication was in contravention of the ABC's editorial standards (by providing a big rubber stamp for ABC's errors and misleading reports). In light of your concerns, we have reviewed the story and assessed it against the ABC’s editorial requirements for accuracy, as outlined in section 2 of the ABC’s Editorial Policies:http://www.abc.net.au/corp/pubs/edpols.htm. In the interests of procedural fairness, we have also sought and considered material from ABC News.

Your complaint is that the use of the “abnormal” in relation to the fires is a “gross distortion” of the facts. The story carefully and accurately described the fact that these fires are part of the natural cycle in the Northern Territory but are, none the less, far from common.  (In the story Dr Ashley Sparrow indicates it is "an example of the boom-and-bust ecosystem in the Red Centre at work". Only activist reporters at the ABC could construe this as abnormal. It is clearly part of a well known common natural cycle.)
That you had to go back 60 years to find reports of equivalent fires, demonstrates this.
(This is a demonstration of the ignorance and laziness of ABCs respondent. I found the news articles on the National Library Newspaper site in about 2 minutes. The Archive ends in the 1950s. A fuller account of bushfires activity in the NT is provided below, this located in about 2 mintues. It seems that large fires in the NT are quite common.)
Describing such events as “abnormal” is only intended to indicate their infrequency, which is quite clear when read in context. The story is not misleading. 

(Based on the evidence of fire activity in the NT use of the term "abnormal" is indeed misleading, sensationalist and inaccurate).

Accordingly, while noting your concerns, Audience and Consumer Affairs are satisfied the story was in keeping with the ABC’s editorial standards for accuracy (In other words it as woeful and as tainted by Groupthink as the rest of ABC's environmental reporting). Nonetheless, please be assured that your comments have been noted and conveyed to ABC News management (As the same mistakes keep on occurring in ABC's echo chamber one doubts that much notice is paid to any criticism).
Thank you for taking the time to write; your feedback is appreciated (I'm sure it is).
End Response

Some further information on NT Bush fires 
from Understanding bushfire: trends in deliberate vegetation fires in Australia-Northern Territory

Few people are aware of the role, the process or the scale of burning (controlled and uncontrolled) that occurs in the tropical savannas of northern Australia. Bushfires are a ubiquitous feature of the Northern Territory dry season, with the territory having the most frequent, largest and more poorly documented vegetation fires of any part of the continent. When considering Northern Territory bushfires it is necessary to discard all preconceptions of size, frequency and even harm, based on southern vegetation fire regimes, as they are simply not translatable to the savannas that dominate Australia’s north. 

Area burned: The frequency and area burned in any one year varies considerably. Nevertheless, by
southern standards the total and the proportion of land burned in any given year is extraordinarily large. In the higher rainfall savanna woodlands of the northern Kimberley, the Top End and Cape York up to half of the total area may be burned either every year or every second year (Anderson 1996, Dyer et al. 2001, Press 1998, Russell-Smith et al. 1997). Many of these fires are intense and therefore pose the most danger in terms of their capacity to devastate populations of fire-sensitive native plants and animals, to be costly and disruptive to pastoral operations, and to pose a threat to communities and property. The frequency of fires tends to decrease further south for a number of reasons. They include reduced rainfall and therefore vegetation density, reduced grass reserves due to intensive use of these savannas for grazing, and greater efforts to suppress fires to prevent destruction of valuable fodder resources.

Intense fires commonly started by lightning strikes during particularly dry seasons have occurred
throughout the Northern Territory’s modern history. The amounts of land burned in these events are extraordinary. The Council of Australian Governments report (Ellis, Kanowski & Whelan 2004) lists four major bushfire seasons in the territory since the late 1960s that collectively burned 168,000,000 ha. In 2002, approximately 38,000,000 ha burned in planned and unplanned fires. This represents 29 percent of the Northern Territory. In comparison, the January 2003 fires burned ‘only’ 226,000 ha in the Australian Capital Territory and 1,000,000 ha in Victoria. See Table 1 above.

So nothing "abnormal" about large bush fires in the NT!

See also this animation of fires around Central Australia for the period May 1999 to April 2004:
http://www.nt.gov.au/nreta/natres/bushfires/research/desertfire.html

NASA image from 2007...Below Huge fires scorched grassland and savanna in the Barkly Tableland region of Australia’s Northern Territory in October 2007. 

Based on ABC's story one wonders where Fred Williams got the inspiration for this series of paintings?...

Bushfire in Northern Territory 12) (1976)

How much of Kakadu Burnt each year? Did I hear an average of 46%? And that's abnormal?

Abnormal? According to the paper...Fire frequency and biodiversity conservation in Australian tropical savannas: implications from the Kapalga fire experiment

Every year large proportions of northern Australia's tropical savanna landscapes are burnt, resulting in high fire frequencies and short intervals between fires.

Austral Ecology

Volume 30, Issue 2, pages 155–167, April 2005

From...Fire and Sustainable Agricultural and Forestry Development in Eastern Indonesia and Northern Australia Proceedings of an international workshop held at  Northern Territory University, Darwin, Australia, 13–15 April 1999. (Link Here) From Russell-Smith et al, on page 95... In northwestern and northern Australia, and possibly also on parts of Cape York in the northeast, intense wild fires typically late in the dry season burn vast tracts annually. 


Vast Tracts! And to the ABC this year's fires are somehow "abnormal"!

Update Comma Butterfly

We received the reply below from ABC Audience & Consumer Affairs in regard to our complaint about ABC reporting that indicated "the comma butterfly was able to make the leap from central England to Edinburgh, a distance of about 220 kilometres, in two decades."
 The report did not clarify that the Comma Butterfly was previously common in Scotland, for instance: 

The Comma is known to have a very dynamic range in the UK. It was known in eastern Scotland in the early-19th century being found as far north as Fife and Alloa, Clackmannanshire in the east but it was absent in western Scotland. After 1850, the Comma was in decline with the last 19th century record being for Denholm, the Borders in 1868.

 http://www.southwestscotland-butterflies.org.uk/species/butterflies/comma.shtml

Seems ABC do not understand the concept of "context"..from its editorial policy...
2.1 Make reasonable efforts to ensure that material facts are accurate and presented in context.
2.2 Do not present factual content in a way that will materially mislead the audience. In some cases, this may require appropriate labels or other explanatory information."

Here's the reply received today.let you be the judge. One wonders why the original report did not attempt to get in touch with the authors of the study for clarification. ABC-Cargo cult journalism in action...

Thank you for your email regarding the ABC Science story 'Wildlife responding fast to climate change'. I am sorry for the delay in responding to you.

I understand you believe the statement in the story "But the comma butterfly was able to make the leap from central England to Edinburgh, a distance of about 220 kilometres, in two decades" misrepresented factual information because the story did not mention that the range of the comma butterfly has previously included Scotland.

In light of your concerns, Audience & Consumer Affairs has reviewed this statement, within the context of the story, and assessed its adherence to standards 2.1 and 2.2 in the ABC Editorial Policies. These standards state as follows:

"2.1 Make reasonable efforts to ensure that material facts are accurate and presented in context.
2.2 Do not present factual content in a way that will materially mislead the audience. In some cases, this may require appropriate labels or other explanatory information."

I understand the story was sourced from Reuters. ABC Innovation has advised that the statement to which you refer was based on a quote from Dr David Roy, head of the Biological Records Centre in the UK and co-author of the paper the story reported on. The quote appeared in a press release about the paper. I am advised that ABC Innovation verified the accuracy of the statement by checking it against the press release and the paper itself, although there was no direct reference to the comma butterfly in the paper or supplementary material. Additionally, I understand ABC Innovation relied on Dr Roy's relevant expertise in this area.

Following receipt of your complaint, ABC Innovation contacted Dr Roy about the issue you raised. According to Dr Roy, the statement was about the recent expansion of the distribution of the comma butterfly in recent decades, and not the historical distribution of the species. Dr Roy has advised that while it is true that the comma butterfly covered much of England and Wales, plus scattered localities in Scotland (as far north as Fife) in the early nineteenth century, it was absent from Scotland for more than a century (estimated to be since c.1870). I understand Dr Roy's quote in the press release, which formed the basis of the statement, reported the re-expansion of the species since the ~1980s.

On review, having regard to the steps taken by ABC Innovation and the relatively incidental nature of the statement within the context of the story, Audience & Consumer Affairs is satisfied that reasonable efforts were made to ensure that it was accurate and presented in context. Furthermore, given the information subsequently provided by Dr Roy, we are satisfied that the content was not presented in a way that was likely to materially mislead the audience. Accordingly, the requirements of standards 2.1 and 2.2 were met.

Nonetheless, please be assured that your comments have been noted and conveyed to ABC Innovation management so that relevant staff are aware of your concerns. Thank you for taking the time to write.

Yours sincerely
SM
ABC Audience & Consumer Affairs

ABC snowball Alpine report

ACM have some questions for ABC news....

ABC's spin on Alpine catchment report

Following on from the “no snow by 2050″ story earlier today, the ABC gleefully reports more doom and gloom on the state of the alpine catchments. Perhaps they thought nobody would check:

SIMON SANTOW (ABC World Today): Sixty per cent of the 235 catchments are rated poor to moderate – most are declining.(source)

See the real picture at ACM.

Looking over the report it seems ABC did not question the dodgy method that was used to come up with the assessment. The summary report states:

“The assessment was based on judgments from individuals and not by quantitative data and systematic survey and this was an important limitation. In addition, no field survey or ground truthing was completed.” (from p.21) Source is here (9MB PDF).
Best not to let the facts get in the way of a good scare story.

Nothing abnormal about NT fires

ABC claim that "An abnormal amount of carbon is being released into the atmosphere from wildfires raging across Central Australia." (I'm guessing they are referring to Carbon dioxide).

This is a gross distortion of the facts. Firstly the scientist interviewed for the story clearly indicates the current bushfires are part of a natural cycle. 

"Dr Ashley Sparrow from the CSIRO laboratory in Alice Springs says it is an example of the boom-and-bust ecosystem in the Red Centre at work.

He says spectacular wet years are always followed by a growth spurt of grasses and scrubs, then a significant bushfire season and the release of massive quantities of carbon dioxide."

So it seems that there is nothing  "abnormal" about the amount of carbon dioxide being released. 

Secondly the briefest check of historical newspaper archives reveals numerous instances of significant fires in the past. 

For instance:
State bushfires checked: Huge NT blaze. The Sydney Morning Herald Thursday 25 October 1951

Bushfire Havoc in two states and NT. The West Australian Thursday 25 October 1951

Huge Bushfires in the NT.  Advocate Wednesday 12 May 1948

So nothing "abnormal" about large bush fires in the NT.

It seems the only thing "abnormal" is ABC's distortion of the facts.

Challenge to Marius Benson

In an opinion piece on ABC's The Drum ABC journalist Marius Benson (who apparently has interviewed quite a number of Australian Prime Ministers) makes the following claim:

"There is an overwhelming consensus among scientists working in the field of climate that the planet is warming and that the human-generated increase in concentration of C02 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is contributing to that warming. There is no major national scientific body which dissents from that view. All major scientific bodies - the CSIRO here, Britain's Royal Society, the AAAS in the United States and others - share the view.

Dissent comes from a small minority of scientists working on climate..."

I don't know of a single scientist, not one, who would argue against the statement: "...the planet is warming and that the human-generated increase in concentration of C02 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is contributing to that warming."


The loose statement Benson uses to define the consensus for climate change includes all the scientists I know of that are often derided on the ABC as "sceptics" or "deniers". The debate on the science is much more sophisticated than this. Marius may have interviewed a lot of PM's but it is clear from this cliche ridden article he knows little of the current scientific debate in climate science.

  

So here's a challenge to Marius Benson. Name one of those scientists (and provide a link to the evidence). Just one!

Further into his piece Marius quotes the great Richard Feynman: "In general we look for a new law by the following process. First we guess it. Then we compute the consequences of the guess to see what would be implied if this law that we guessed is right. Then we compare the result of the computation to nature, with experiment or experience, compare it directly with observation, to see if it works. If it disagrees with experiment it is wrong... That's all there is to it."


As an exercise in science we suggest Marius compare IPCC model projections for global temperature with current measured temperature trends and put the result to the Feynman test. He might be surprised at the outcome.

Lord Howe Island Corals: reports of our death greatly exaggerated.

COMMENT: Southern Cross University (SCU) issued a press release dated 24 March 2010 describing a coral bleaching event on Lord Howe Island due to unusual weather conditions (warmer sea water temperature, low wind and cloud cover...the effects of the current El Nino perhaps?) in early 2010. The press release must have been provided some time earlier to ABC's environment reporter Sarah Clarke whose subsequent reports including interviews with SCU's Prof Peter Harrison and some handy on-site footage of Lord Howe Island was released on Radio National's AM at around 7.30 am EDST.
Sarah Clarke managed to spread the news far and wide providing near saturation coverage across all ABC formats.
AM-"Warmer waters bleach Lord Howe's unique reef"
Science Online: Bleaching leaves Lord Howe reef on 'knife edge'
TV:ABC 7.00 news SYDNEY Lord Howe Island reef succumbs to bleaching
News Online: Bleaching leaves Lord Howe reef on 'knife edge'
Radio Australia: "Warmer waters bleach Lord Howe's unique reef"
Links to the story were also featured prominently on ABC's home page. The reports feature photos provided by Prof. Harrison.

We note that Prof Harrison and Sarah Clarke are not strangers and have "collaborated" together in the past, for instance on this story for the 7:30 Report in November 2007 "Busting the Scientific Whaling Myth". Perhaps this explains Ms Clarke's early access to the SCU press release.

The story emphasised the unique nature of the reefs at Lord Howe and their susceptibility to climate change. What the reports failed to mention was that a study published in the journal Global and Planetary Change in 2005 titled "Episodes of reef growth at Lord Howe Island, the southernmost reef in the southwest Pacific" (Volume 49: 222-237) by Woodroffe et al., found a long history of coral reefs at Lord Howe Island with sporadic reef development extending well back into the Pleistocene. Woodroffe et al. note:

"Although the modern fringing reef on the western side of Lord Howe Island supports luxuriant coral
communities (Veron and Done, 1979; Harriott et al., 1995), coring and dating of lagoonal sediments imply a phase of more prolific coral growth and sediment production in the mid-Holocene (Kennedy and Woodroffe, 2000). This coincides with a time at which higher temperatures have been indicated by isotopic proxies in corals on the Great Barrier Reef (Gagan et al., 1998), and in worm tubes in eastern Australia (Baker et al.,2001). It remains unproven, however, whether sea-surface temperatures were higher at Lord Howe Island. An alternative explanation is that there was a broad expanse
of suitable substrate available as the sea rose across the bench bevelled into calcarenites that had been deposited during a previous interstadial." 
It seems to us that it was probably a combination of factors of warmer temperatures and available space that provided the conditions for more prolific coral growth in the mid-Holocene, we wait the results of further research. Regardless, the geological evidence shows that coral reefs have managed to adapt to a range of climatic and sea level conditions at Lord Howe Island and in this context the current bleaching event is likely to be just one of a multitude of events in the reef's past, many of which were probably much more dramatic and dire than the current one. 


The ABC reports included a number of statements by Lord Howe Island Marine Park manager Ian Kerr, but oddly this one from SCU's press release failed to get a mention in any of the ABC coverage: “ I've seen aerial photographs and I’m pleased to report the beauty and uniqueness of the reef is still intact, we remain very concerned about this event and will continue to facilitate the research and monitoring that needs to continue,” Mr Kerr said.


With this in mind it seems reports that reefs at Lord Howe are "on a knife's edge", are somewhat exaggerated, unless of course that knife has a very dull edge. 


The late Richard Feynman stated in a speech at Caltech on the subject of Cargo cult Science "In summary, the idea is to give all of the information to help others to judge the value of your contribution; not just the information that leads to judgement in one particular direction or another." This applies not only to science, but also I think, to science reporting in order to avoid cargo cult journalism.

Cargo cult journalism evident in this SMH story on the Bay of Bengal and now in this ABC report "Island vanishes under the sea"  No mention in either article of a little something called subsidence.