Scare mongering ABC journos need your help

Unfortunately ABC's current batch of bed wetting activists  reporters were born without the sense of perspective gene. This important gene helps normal people discern pure sensationalism from information that we need to pay attention to. Without the gene ABC's affected reporters appear incapable of telling fact from fiction and as a result it is open to spreading sensationalist propaganda.

Case in point is a report yesterday by ABC's Hamish Fitzsimmons. It appears that a dysfunctional perspective gene has affected  Hamish's ability to do basic research.

Here's Hamish's headline:
Sea level rises due to climate change could cost Australia $200b, Climate Council report finds
In his report Hamish provides a platform for professional doom-sayer Will Steffan to make the following statement:

"If you look at a 1.1 metre sea level rise - which is the high-end scenario for 2100 but that's what we're tracking towards - you're looking at more than $200 billion worth of infrastructure that's at risk." "If you look at some of our most vulnerable areas, and the Sydney region is one of those, you would say toward the end of this century that a one-in-100-year flood is going to be happening every few days," he said.

In regard to a sea level rise of 1.1m (1100mm) Will Steffan says "That's what we're tracking towards". Really?

Hamish didn't bother looking at the facts, nor it seems did the alarmist Climate Council. We spent approximately 30 seconds on the internet to locate the following chart from the
Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL):

Fort Denison: monthly mean sea level data

This shows long term sea level in the Sydney area. The graph shows flattish trends from the start of the record to about 1950, then a step change, followed by flattish trends to the end of the data. A simplistic linear regression analysis would provide an average annual sea level rise of about 0.55 mm per year. Extrapolated to 2100 this would amount to an additional rise of 47 mm. This is a very small fraction of what Steffen believes "we're tracking towards".

We have a bunch of alarmist activist scientists who it seems are incapable of analysing real world data feeding gullible reporters who basically appear unwilling to check the facts. The end result is the spread of misinformation.

Unfortunately at this stage there is no cure to what is being called Sponge Syndrome.

Update: The chart below extends the raw Denison data forwards in time and shows what needs to happen in order to satisfy the Climate Councils notion of what we're tracking towards". This lacks credibility and the ABC should ask the council about it.

Missing News: Sydney Sea Levels

ABC 702's Sydney new morning radio show presenter Linda Mottram who replaced eco-catastophist Deborah Cameron has continued the tradition of promoting alarm about climate change. This morning one of the topics focused on was sea level rise.

We have sent Linda a copy of a new paper by Alberto Boretti, (School of Science, Information technology and Engineering, University of Ballarat) just published (in press) at the journal; Coastal Engineering. It's titled Is there any support in the long term tide gauge data to the claims that parts of Sydney will be swamped by rising sea levels?


Here's the Abstract:
The government of Australia is supporting the statement that sea levels are rising faster than ever before as a result of increased carbon dioxide emissions. Consequent to this, low-lying coastal areas, where the majority of Australians are concentrated, have been declared at risk of sea level inundations. Maps with 0.5, 0.8 and 1.1 m sea level rise have been proposed for Sydney, the major Australian city. However, long term tide gauges, recording sea levels worldwide, as well as along the coastline of Australia, and within the bay of Sydney, do not show any sign of accelerating sea level rises at present time.

Fig. 1. Boretti, 2012. MSL measured in Sydney (data from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level, 2011c,d). 120 years of measurements (top) show the sea level is not accelerating on average.20 years of measurements (bottom) also show the sea level is not accelerating on average. All the data sets show a weakly rising sea level.

From the Conclusion:

The most likely rise of sea level in the bay of Sydney by 2100 is therefore more likely less than the 50 mm measured so far over the last 100 years rather than the metre predicted by some models.
Via Roger Pielke Snr

Missing News: Sea level rise on the wane

Simon at ACM has post describing a new paper that concludes that rises in sea levels are "decelerating".
See ACM for the details.
The Australian has this REPORT.

ABC NEWS HAS NOTHING, NADDA, ZIP.

UPDATE (thanks to Anon): ABC catch up with the rest of the planet...Sea rise slow down raises questions
(oddly this report does not appear to have made it as a news item in ABC's News Archive). Note the tone at the end of the ABC article...


Dr Howard Brady, a former geologist and now honorary associate at the School of Biology at Sydney's Macquarie University, says the study highlights the gap between models and historical data.

"Modelling is very important because it can give us some idea of how things interact, but it doesn't necessarily give us an accurate projection of the future," says Brady. "The idea that the science is settled ... that's not true."

Dr Kathleen McInnes, a climate researcher at CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric research, says a range of sources are used to analyse sea levels, including tide gauges, satellites and geological records.

She dismisses claims that sea levels will only rise by 15 centimetres this century.

"The Watson paper is not about future projections, it is about past observations. Drawing any connection is misleading," says McInnes. (Ed. what a ridiculously, uninformed statement, the past is the key to the present)
She says the most recent IPCC report predicts sea levels will rise between 20 and 80 centimetres by the end of this century. (Ed. Like IPCC projections are proving reliable)

"There is a much bigger body of evidence supporting the IPCC projections (Ed.  yeah, those debunked climate models) than there is from single papers in the scientific literature. You have to be very careful when a single paper is cited as though this is the state of the science."

Rapid Sea level rise a figment of ABC Groupthink alarmism

Sea level projected to 2100-likely further rise of 17.4 cm by 2100

ABC's Climate Groupthink propaganda machine goes into hyperdrive to support the government's carbon tax, with a report titled "Report outlines worst-case climate damage". Once again little inquiry by the ABC, who are happy to beat the alarmist drum for a government desperate to regain some credibility in the politics of climate change - by being seen to be "doing something", anything. (Ed...Doesn't matter that its proposed tax will do nothing for the environment, in fact it will harm it by reducing our economic capacity to pay for looking after it. The tax will do nothing for global temperatures, it will do nothing to reduce sea level, it will do nothing to reduce "carbon pollution". It's a "feel good" tax that will make no one feel good. Its long term outcome will be one big step backward into a third world lifestyle for all Australians)

ABC's sensationalist report states:
The report, titled Risk to Coastal Settlements and Communities, was commissioned by the Federal Government and assesses the potential damage caused by a worst-case scenario sea level rise of 1.1 metres within 90 years. 
The report identifies $226 billion worth of assets at risk of erosion or being wiped out.

It found up to 274,000 homes are at risk of inundation and erosion along with over 8,000 commercial buildings, and up to 35,000 kilometres of roads and rail around the country.

Sounds pretty scary, but just what has sea level been doing over the last 100 years or so? Based on historical  observations is a rise of 1.1 m realistic? The graph, above, from wikipedia shows sea level rise for the last 120 years (thats 4 climate cycles). If we extrapolate the observed trends 100 years into the future, out to 2100, we can see that (if these non-alarming trends continue) we can expect a further rise of just 17.4 cm! Thats less than the width of an ipad, less than the length of a brick!

The results of such a rise over the next 90 years will be insignificant. ABC's activist reporters appear to have mistaken reality for a Hollywood disaster movie.

Missing News - ice melt-not that much of a problem

ABC Science, care of its activist reporter Sara Phillips, follow a familiar theme on sea level with this story titled "Ice Melt a weighty problem:expert". Other experts perhaps less prone to influence of  Henny Penny, and Goosey Loosey than the ABC's appear to disagree, reporting:  that, if current ice sheet melting rates continue for the next four decades, their cumulative loss could raise sea level by 15 centimeters (5.9 inches) by 2050.  Nonetheless the authors caution that considerable uncertainties remain in estimating future ice loss acceleration.

That's 15 centimeters. In their alarmist article ABC highlight the physically possible but apparently unlikely figure of 5 meters. Why the focus on the high-end scenario? Where's the balance?


The less scary perspective, missing from ABC's report, is apparently not felt important enough for ABC's audience. Where's the Balance?


This bias and personal activism apparently flies in the face of ABC's new Editorial standards that state:

1.3 Ensure that editorial decisions are not improperly influenced by political, sectional, commercial or personal interest.
4.1 Gather and present news and information with due impartiality.
4.2 Present a diversity of perspectives so that, over time, no significant strand of thought or belief within the community is knowingly excluded or disproportionately represented.


4.5 Do not unduly favour one perspective over another.  
The new Editorial Policy appears to have done nothing to reduce the influence of Groupthink in the ABC.


Complaint lodged, we'll report the findings.

Update - Pacific Islands story wrong journal quoted

ABC have replied to our request they amend a report titled "Pacific islands growing, not sinking" posted ABC News Online 3/6/2010 to provide the correct primary source. The report covered recent research that indicates that many low-lying Pacific islands are growing, not sinking, as claimed by the IPCC. In its report the ABC suggests the findings were published in New Scientist magazine "The findings, published in the magazine New Scientist". As we demonstrated in our complaint the findings were actually published in the journal Global and Planetary Change. The journal article is by Andrew Webb and Paul Kench and is titled "The dynamic response of reef islands to sea level rise: evidence from multi-decadal analysis of island change in the central pacific". The DOI is http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.05.003

ABC's statement about the source of the work is misleading, especially in the context of publication of peer reviewed science. We have asked ABC Complaints Review Executive to review the complaint lest we end up with secondary sources being made to appear as primary in future ABC reports. Based on ABC's assessment below the following statement would be considered passable:

"Findings published in the Sydney Morning Herald suggest that..."

"Recent research published in Womens Day..."

"Research published in the National Inquirer finds..."

We have suggested once again ABC correctly attribute the source of the research findings and amend their report.

The full reply appears below...

Received 27/7/2010

Thank you for your email of 3 June concerning the ABC News Online article “Pacific islands growing, not sinking” published that day. Please accept my apologies for the delay in responding.

In keeping with ABC complaint handling procedures, your concerns have been considered by Audience and Consumer Affairs, a unit separate to and independent from ABC program areas. In light of your concerns, we have assessed the sentence of the article to which you refer against the ABC’s editorial requirement for accuracy in news and current affairs content, as outlined in section 5.2.2(c) of the ABC’s Editorial Policies: http://www.abc.net.au/corp/pubs/edpols.htm. In the interests of procedural fairness, we have also sought and considered material from ABC News.

The story reported that new research had identified that many low-lying Pacific islands are growing, not sinking, challenging the view that Pacific islands are sinking due to rising sea levels associated with climate change. As you point out, the story referred to the findings as having been published in the magazine New Scientist. New Scientist is a weekly science magazine and website providing coverage of recent developments in science and technology, and it published a story about the research and its findings:http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20627633.700-shapeshifting-islands-defy-sealevel-rise.html.

On review, Audience and Consumer Affairs do not agree the article’s reference to the findings having been published in New Scientist magazine was inaccurate. As noted above, details of the research and its findings were published in New Scientist. While we appreciate that the full research paper was published in the peer-reviewed journal to which you refer, and this may be of interest to some readers, we are satisfied that reference to the findings being published in New Scientist magazine was accurate and in keeping with section 5.2.2(c) of the ABC’s Editorial Policies.

Notwithstanding this, please be assured that your comments have been noted and conveyed to ABC News management. Thank you again for taking the time to write, and for your interest in the ABC. For your reference, a copy of the ABC Code of Practice is available at: http://www.abc.net.au/corp/pubs/documents/200806_codeofpractice-revised_2008.pdf.

Yours sincerely

Audience & Consumer Affairs

Pacific Islands growing not sinking-wrong journal quoted

Update-see outcome below
ABC HEADLINE: "Pacific islands growing, not sinking" news online 3/6/2010
ABC REPORTED: ABC somewhat surprisingly covered recent research that indicates that many low-lying Pacific islands are growing, not sinking, as claimed by the IPCC. In its report the ABC suggests the findings were published in New Scientist magazine "The findings, published in the magazine New Scientist" .
 THE COMPLAINT:  New Scientist is not a peer reviewed journal, like the ABC it merely reports the news.
The research findings were in fact published in the journal Global and Planetary Change. The source of the New Scientist report is a research paper by Andrew Webb and Paul Kench titled "The dynamic response of reef islands to sea level rise: evidence from multi-decadal analysis of island change in the central pacific". The DOI is http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.05.003
Please amend the report to provide the correct publication.
OUTCOME: Received 27 July, 2010
Thank you for your email of 3 June concerning the ABC News Online article “Pacific islands growing, not sinking” published that day. Please accept my apologies for the delay in responding.

In keeping with ABC complaint handling procedures, your concerns have been considered by Audience and Consumer Affairs, a unit separate to and independent from ABC program areas. In light of your concerns, we have assessed the sentence of the article to which you refer against the ABC’s editorial requirement for accuracy in news and current affairs content, as outlined in section 5.2.2(c) of the ABC’s Editorial Policies: http://www.abc.net.au/corp/pubs/edpols.htm. In the interests of procedural fairness, we have also sought and considered material from ABC News.

The story reported that new research had identified that many low-lying Pacific islands are growing, not sinking, challenging the view that Pacific islands are sinking due to rising sea levels associated with climate change. As you point out, the story referred to the findings as having been published in the magazine New Scientist. New Scientist is a weekly science magazine and website providing coverage of recent developments in science and technology, and it published a story about the research and its findings:http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20627633.700-shapeshifting-islands-defy-sealevel-rise.html.

On review, Audience and Consumer Affairs do not agree the article’s reference to the findings having been published in New Scientist magazine was inaccurate. As noted above, details of the research and its findings were published in New Scientist. While we appreciate that the full research paper was published in the peer-reviewed journal to which you refer, and this may be of interest to some readers, we are satisfied that reference to the findings being published in New Scientist magazine was accurate and in keeping with section 5.2.2(c) of the ABC’s Editorial Policies.

Notwithstanding this, please be assured that your comments have been noted and conveyed to ABC News management. Thank you again for taking the time to write, and for your interest in the ABC. For your reference, a copy of the ABC Code of Practice is available at: http://www.abc.net.au/corp/pubs/documents/200806_codeofpractice-revised_2008.pdf.

Yours sincerely

 Audience & Consumer Affairs

COMMENT: With recent staff increases it should be possible for ABC journalists to take the time (we took 2 minutes) to find the original research.
It appears New Scientist standards are also lapsing. The link to the paper provided in their article is not correct and returns a related paper by Colin Woodroffe published in Global and Planetary change in 2007. We have informed New Scientist of the need for a correction. My good help is certainly hard to find these days!

From the vault: climate refugees - that sinking feeling

Original Story: AM broadcast "Aid groups call for climate refugee quotas" on Monday 14 July, 2008 08:13:00.

What was reported: ABC reporter Simon Santo reported that the NGO "Make Poverty History" was calling on the Federal Government to work with other rich OECD governments to establish immigration quotas for climate refugees.The report indicated that small island nations such as Kiribati and Tuvalu are slowly sinking as seas begin to rise.

The Complaint: Details of the complaint are not listed.

ABC Audience and Consumer Affairs response: ABC posted this correction on the 9/9/2008, almost 2 months after the original story was put to air. HERE scroll down to 9/9/2008

On July 14, 2008 , the AM radio current affairs program broadcast a story about rising sea levels in the South Pacific, and calls by aid groups for Australia to do more to assist Pacific island nations. The opening line of the story should have attributed a statement about the sinking of the islands to the organisation making the claim, Make Poverty History. The transcript of this story has since been amended.

The following editors note was added to the story:
EDITOR'S NOTE: The opening line of this story should have attributed a statement about the sinking of the islands to the organisation making the claim, Make Poverty History.

ANW Comment: Make poverty history - apparently not experts on sea level rise afterall. 

"From the Vault" - digging up past corrections and clarifications from the ABC archives