Missing News: Curry snubbed again

if the current crop of ABC reporters were around when Einstein published earlier this century they would have ignored it, claiming the science was settled. If they were around in the 1960s plate tectonics would not get a single mention as it went against the established concensus. With this in mind that the ABC have ignored another published article by Judy Curry comes at no surprise.  The title and abstract are below.

Research Letter

Two contrasting views of multidecadal climate variability in the 20th century†

Sergey Kravtsov1,*,
Marcia G. Wyatt2,
Judith A. Curry3 and
Anastasios A. Tsonis1

DOI: 10.1002 2014GL061416

Abstract

The bulk of our knowledge about causes of 20th century climate change comes from simulations using numerical models. In particular, these models seemingly reproduce the observed nonuniform global warming, with periods of faster warming in 1910–1940 and 1970–2000, and a pause in between. However, closer inspection reveals some differences between the observations and model simulations. Here we show that observed multidecadal variations of surface climate exhibited a coherent global-scale signal characterized by a pair of patterns, one of which evolved in sync with multidecadal swings of the global temperature, and the other in quadrature with them. In contrast, model simulations are dominated by the stationary — single pattern — forced signal somewhat reminiscent of the observed “in-sync” pattern most pronounced in the Pacific. While simulating well the amplitude of the largest-scale — Pacific and hemispheric — multidecadal variability in surface temperature, the model underestimates variability in the North Atlantic and atmospheric indices.

Missing News: that climate sensitivity thing again

ABC have ignored the work of Nic Lewis and Judy Curry, their new paper may change this! The results provide further evidence that human impacts on climate will be minor.

The implications for climate sensitivity of AR5 forcing and heat uptake estimates

• Nicholas Lewis,
• Judith A. Curry

Abstract

Energy budget estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR) are derived using the comprehensive 1750–2011 time series and the uncertainty ranges for forcing components provided in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Working Group I Report, along with its estimates of heat accumulation in the climate system. The resulting estimates are less dependent on global climate models and allow more realistically for forcing uncertainties than similar estimates based on forcings diagnosed from simulations by such models. Base and final periods are selected that have well matched volcanic activity and influence from internal variability. Using 1859–1882 for the base period and 1995–2011 for the final period, thus avoiding major volcanic activity, median estimates are derived for ECS of 1.64 K and for TCR of 1.33 K. ECS 17–83 and 5–95 % uncertainty ranges are 1.25–2.45 and 1.05–4.05 K; the corresponding TCR ranges are 1.05–1.80 and 0.90–2.50 K. Results using alternative well-matched base and final periods provide similar best estimates but give wider uncertainty ranges, principally reflecting smaller changes in average forcing. Uncertainty in aerosol forcing is the dominant contribution to the ECS and TCR uncertainty ranges.

Ignoring sanity

ABC continue to ignore the few sane people involved in the climate science "discussion", in favour of climate ignoramuses like the cast of Monday's Q and A.

Prof. Judy Curry should be high on the list of experts called upon to help inform the public about climate change instead ABC continues to ignore her wise council. You can learn from Judy Curry via her blog.

The recent post "JC at the National Press Club"is a must read! or view

Who am I?

"A democratic society depends on diverse sources of reliable information and contending opinions."
ABC Editorial policy

Pop Quiz: Who am I?

Professor and Chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at theGeorgia Institute of Technology and President (co-owner) of Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN). I received a Ph.D. in Geophysical Sciences  from the University of Chicago in 1982.  Prior to joining the faculty at Georgia Tech, I held faculty positions at the University of Colorado, Penn State University and Purdue University. I currently serve on the NASA Advisory Council Earth Science Subcommittee and the DOE Biological and Environmental Science Advisory Committee,  and have recently served on the National Academies Climate Research Committee and the Space Studies Board, and the NOAA Climate Working Group. I am a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and the American Geophysical Union.

Intelligent, top of their field, numerous peer reviewed publications, a world leader, articulate, concise, open, an award winning scientist. Seems someone ABC might want to get an opinion from, yet somehow this person is passed over in favour of lesser mortals.

Their latest testimony to the US Senate now available HERE.

Extract...

• For the past 16 years, there has been no significant increase in surface temperature. There is a growing discrepancy between observations and climate model projections. Observations since 2011 have fallen below the 90% envelope of climate model projections
• The IPCC does not have a convincing or confident explanation for this hiatus in warming.
• There is growing evidence of decreased climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations
• Based on expert judgment in light of this evidence, the IPCC 5thassessment report lowered its surface temperature projection relative to the model projections for the period 2016-2036.

The growing evidence that climate models are too sensitive to CO2 has implications for the attribution of late 20th century warming and projections of 21st century climate change. Sensitivity of the climate to carbon dioxide, and the level of uncertainty in its value, is a key input into the economic models that drive cost-benefit analyses, including estimates of the social cost of carbon.

Missing News: explaining the pause

ABC Science recently published a piece by its highly paid in house expert Dr Karl, titled "No Warming in 16 years". Dr Karl essentially denies the evidence for the hiatus in global temps. In contrast a recent peer reviewed paper in the journal Climate Dynamics provides an explanation for the pause. The paper is co-authored by one of ABC's missing voices Dr Judy Curry.
No surprise that ABC have not reported on the paper.

From the Press release:

A new paper published in a recent online edition of the journal Climate Dynamics suggests that this ‘unpredictable climate variability’ behaves in a more predictable way than previously assumed. The paper’s authors, Marcia Wyatt and Judith Curry, point to the so-called ‘stadium-wave’ signal that propagates like the cheer at sporting events whereby sections of sports fans seated in a stadium stand and sit as a ‘wave’ propagates through the audience.  In like manner, the ‘stadium wave’ climate signal propagates across the Northern Hemisphere through a network of ocean, ice, and atmospheric circulation regimes that self-organize into a collective tempo.

The stadium wave hypothesis provides a plausible explanation for the hiatus in warming and helps explain why climate models did not predict this hiatus. Further, the new hypothesis suggests how long the hiatus might last.   

IPCC hysteria

ABC are offering hysteria and moral indignation in their coverage of the IPCC's latest report. For an adult's perspective see what missing voice Dr Judy Curry has to offer....

IPCC diagnosis – permanent paradigm paralysis

by Judith Curry

Diagnosis: paradigm paralysis, caused by motivated reasoning, oversimplification, and consensus seeking; worsened and made permanent by a vicious positive feedback effect at the climate science-policy interface.

In a previous post, I discussed the IPCC’s diagnosis of a planetary fever and their prescription for planet Earth.  In this post, I provide a diagnosis and prescription for the IPCC

To read the rest follow the link.

Missing Voices: Judy Curry

ABC are yet to invite climate scientist Judy Curry onto The Science show or elsewhere.
Professor Curry is the Chair, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology. She writes at Climate Etc. Here is an extract from her post on the deceptive behaviour of activist scientist Peter Gleick:

Gleick’s ‘integrity’

The Artless Climate Wars

If Gleick et al. view this whole endeavour as fighting a war, they would be well advised to read Sun Tsu’s Art of War; see also my previous discussion of theArtless Climate Wars:

Apart from the “why” of the climate wars, the “how” needs to be looked at also.  It seems that those fighting to defend the IPCC consensus never read the Art of War.  Translated to the climate war, Sun Tzu’s principles might look something like this:

• Outsmart your opponent so that battles aren’t necessary
• Pick your battles carefully.
• In the course of your battle, don’t lose the moral high ground.
• Divide and conquer; don’t give your enemy cause to rally together and combine forces
• Overconfidence can be fatal to your strategy
• If the campaign is prolonged, the resources will not be equal to the strain
• If you know your enemy, you can win battles without a single loss

Gleick’s strategy has failed on all counts.  I don’t think this is from the Art of War, but I read it somewhere and it seems apt:  When fighting a war, don’t waste a bullet on yourself (ouch).

The end result of Gleick’s actions are to cede the high ground to Heartland, especially in light of the fact that Heartland had invited Gleick to a debate shortly before the theft of the documents occurred.