Monday, July 11, 2011

Missing News: More IPCC exaggerations

Here's the Abstract of a new peer reviewed paper yet to be reported upon by Australia's state run media:
“IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) AR4 (Fourth Assessment Report) GCMs (General Circulation Models) predict a tropical tropospheric warming that increases with height, reaches its maximum at ~200 hPa, andeases near the tropical tropopause. This study examines the GCM-predicted maximum warming in the tropical upper troposphere using satellite MSU (microwave sounding unit)-derived deep-layer temperatures in the tropical upper- and lower-middle troposphere for 1979-2010. While satellite MSU/AMSU observations generally support GCM results with tropical deep-layer tropospheric warming faster than surface, it is evident that the AR4 GCMs may exaggerate the increase in static stability between tropical middle and upper troposphere during the last three decades.”

Fu, Q., S. Manabe, and C. Johanson (2011), On the warming in the tropical upper troposphere: Models versus observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2011GL048101, in press. (accepted 24 June 2011)

Best not to let inconvenient facts get in the way of the Government's Carbon Tax advertising campaign .

1 comment:

  1. Bob in CastlemaineJuly 12, 2011 at 6:30 PM

    OT BUT HOPEFULLY OF INTEREST
    The ABC Midday Report today carried an item about research into the effect of misinformation on memory and reasoning. ABC Science has an account of the work by University of Western Australia researchers:

    "If you believe in something strongly and it's really important to you as a person [your worldview] you will cling to that no matter what," Ecker remarks.
    He says one example of this is climate change.
    "People who believe strongly in the free market, those opposed to any kind of regulations … will be much more likely to continue to believe humans are not causing climate change even in the face of overwhelming scientific evidence that humans are causing climate change.
    "

    In an effort to illustrate an example supporting the research, the Midday Report item included reference to oft quoted research indicating that 97% of climate scientists think that global warming is significantly due to human activity, but despite this many people remain sceptical about the part played by humans in climate change. As Anthony Watts points out the research referred to is flawed in logic and is not peer reviewed:

    "However, close examination of the source of the claimed 97% consensus reveals that it comes from a non-peer reviewed article describing an online poll in which a total of only 79 climate scientists chose to participate. Of the 79 self-selected climate scientists, 76 agreed with the notion of AGW. Thus, we find climate scientists once again using dubious statistical techniques to deceive the public that there is a 97% scientific consensus on man-made global warming; fortunately they clearly aren’t buying it".

    So I'm not sure whether Midday Report's bit of self contradictory propaganda proves or disproves the point. I guess you could conclude that in an inverted kind of way it exemplifies the research findings, in so far as the researcher interviewed obviously continues to believe the discredited misinformation he to quotes. Not the intention I'm sure.

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