Missing News: Sydney Sea Levels

ABC 702's Sydney new morning radio show presenter Linda Mottram who replaced eco-catastophist Deborah Cameron has continued the tradition of promoting alarm about climate change. This morning one of the topics focused on was sea level rise.

We have sent Linda a copy of a new paper by Alberto Boretti, (School of Science, Information technology and Engineering, University of Ballarat) just published (in press) at the journal; Coastal Engineering. It's titled Is there any support in the long term tide gauge data to the claims that parts of Sydney will be swamped by rising sea levels?


Here's the Abstract:
The government of Australia is supporting the statement that sea levels are rising faster than ever before as a result of increased carbon dioxide emissions. Consequent to this, low-lying coastal areas, where the majority of Australians are concentrated, have been declared at risk of sea level inundations. Maps with 0.5, 0.8 and 1.1 m sea level rise have been proposed for Sydney, the major Australian city. However, long term tide gauges, recording sea levels worldwide, as well as along the coastline of Australia, and within the bay of Sydney, do not show any sign of accelerating sea level rises at present time.

Fig. 1. Boretti, 2012. MSL measured in Sydney (data from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level, 2011c,d). 120 years of measurements (top) show the sea level is not accelerating on average.20 years of measurements (bottom) also show the sea level is not accelerating on average. All the data sets show a weakly rising sea level.

From the Conclusion:

The most likely rise of sea level in the bay of Sydney by 2100 is therefore more likely less than the 50 mm measured so far over the last 100 years rather than the metre predicted by some models.
Via Roger Pielke Snr

Chairman's old history: Part 2

Some more clipping for the 1970s.
In 1975 ABC's new chairman was appointed to head the Department of the Media. Deputy PM at the time, Dr Jim Cairns, had this to say about the appointment: "It is common in most countries especially the USA and the UK, for governments to appoint a person who is sympathetic to their point of view to these positions." (Cairns supports Spigelman, SMH 19/6/1975). 

From "Libs find the public service alive and stinging" The Age Sept. 8, 1975

"This is another blatant misuse of Labor executive power following the appointments of Messrs Wilenski, Spilgelman and Menedue and many others", Mr Garland declared.

"It is clear the government has learned nothing from earlier criticisms of permanent and partisan appointments, which damage the integrity of the Public Service"

From "Menedue's Efficiency impresses Fraser" SMH Nov.13, 1975
"Liberal ministers expect Mr Spigelman to resign if the coalition wins the December 13 election. They say that both his political associations and his lack of experience in the Public Service make him unacceptable as the head of another department."

On the position of chairman, Richard Ackland recently stated, in a piece  headed "Man for all seasons just what the ABC needs" More than that the chairperson is the very embodiment of the independence and excellence of the entire outfit.

Ackland ends: "The other job for which he would have been an excellent choice is chair of Ray Finkelstein's proposed News Media Council. Too late. Now he's got an entire, vast, publicly funded and vitally important media organisation to play with."

Chairman's old history-one of the Shepard's Hut gang

"Mr Spigelman one of the Shepard's Hut gang"
While its old history we found this press clipping from the July 6, 1975 edition of the Sydney Morning Herald of interest in relation to ABC's new Chairman. Best to read it via the link above unless you have really good eyesight.

SMH 6/7/1975

The Heartland Documents: Cargo Cult journalism on The Science Show

The following complaint has been lodged with the ABC about a report on The Science Show titled:
EXPOSING THE HEARTLAND INSTITUTE
Lodged via ABC's complaint contact page, 11/3/2012.

In a discussion about activist scientist Peter Gleick's actions in stealing documents from the Heartland Institute by an email deception Robyn Williams states:
"Peter Gleick actually his clever trick was to confirm by pretending to be someone else that some papers that somehow got into his hands were in fact the same ones he got from from the Heartland Institute by these other means so that they would confirm that they were real."
This is (presumably) based on a statement made by Peter Gleick on his Huffington post blog where he admitted being responsible for the theft of the Heartland documents.
In that post Gleick states: "At the beginning of 2012, I received an anonymous document in the mail describing what appeared to be details of the Heartland Institute's climate program strategy. It contained information about their funders and the Institute's apparent efforts to muddy public understanding about climate science and policy. I do not know the source of that original document but assumed it was sent to me because of my past exchanges with Heartland and because I was named in it.
Given the potential impact however, I attempted to confirm the accuracy of the information in this document. In an effort to do so, and in a serious lapse of my own and professional judgment and ethics, I solicited and received additional materials directly from the Heartland Institute under someone else's name. The materials the Heartland Institute sent to me confirmed many of the facts in the original document, including especially their 2012 fundraising strategy and budget."
The document that Gleick allegedly "received" was in fact a fake, and significant speculation surrounds the authorship of the document. This was not well covered by the program and only mentioned in passing by the interviewee.
A fact not mentioned by Robyn Williams is that considerable evidence points to Gleick himself being the author (of the faked strategy document). The alleged motivation being to besmirch the Heartland Institute after documents he obtained illegally turned out to be rather banal. This paints the theft, or "trick" as Robyn Williams painfully describes it, in a rather different light.
While it may be factually correct to state the events as suggested by Gleick (though the source of Robyn's statement is not provided) it is remiss of The Science Show not to provide its listeners with the full facts as they are currently known. The story is highly contested and the full truth may only arise out of legal action that may yet be taken in the USA.
The report lacks accuracy as a result, and breaches ABC's editorial policy.

New Chairman

ABC have a new Chairman, James Spigelman, whom the Sydney Morning Herald describe in their Editor's Pick as "A man for all Seasons". Richard Ackland's gushing piece contains this line: "More than that the chairperson is the very embodiment of the independence and excellence of the entire outfit."

With this in mind, its helpful that one little fact missing from Ackland's piece has now been  pointed out in today's SMH letters page:

ABC of politics

In your report of the appointment of the ABC's previous chairman, Maurice Newman, in 2006 (Stock Exchange chief to chair ABC-14/12/2006), Mr Newman's political connections and close association with then Prime Minister, John Howard, were covered. However in covering the appointment of James Spigelman no mention is made of Spigelman's past connection to the Labor Party (''Former judge Jim Spigelman to be appointed ABC chairman'', March 8).

In the 1970s he served as a senior adviser to Gough Whitlam. It seems that the practice of appointing political allies to key government positions lives on under Prime Minister Gillard.

Marc Hendrickx

ABC NEWS WATCH wishes the new Chairman well. Here's hoping he will be more successful tackling ABC's Groupthink culture than previous chairman Maurice Newman. The ABC is for all Australians not just a select few.

BOM, Exactly wrong?

Always enjoy looking back at what the Magic 8 ball predicted.

Here's the BOM's Karl Braganza on The World Today in September 2011

SIMON LAUDER: The last La Nina was strong enough to push the rainfall south, drenching New South Wales and Victoria. Dr Braganza says it’s unlikely this summer's rainfall will be as heavy and there will be clearer signs about what's in store soon. 

KARL BRAGANZA: Another month we'll know for sure whether we are going to see a La Nina over the summer months and that still gives you a little bit of time ahead of cyclone season and other season and the monsoon season or the wet season up north, to really understand whether we are going to impact on that. 

Yeah, in terms of the magnitude of that La Nina, it will be unlikely at this point that it is going to be as strong as it was over 2010/11. So what that generally means for Australia is you get an enhanced wet season in the tropics but not necessarily a whole lot of rainfall over the rest of the continent. 


Karl Braganza again on PM on January 4.

Dr Braganza says while La Nina's influence continues it is loosening its grip, and big floods aren't expected on the same scale this year.

"It's a weaker event this time round, compared to last summer, so we had those terrific floods at the end of 2010 and into 2011," he said.

"We might still get very heavy monsoonal rainfall. That can happen in any year in Australia, but probably the odds aren't on for the type of flooding we saw in the summer just gone."

So what happened?
Here's BOM's summary of January 2012 rainfall

January rainfall was generally above average for most of the country, but below average for parts of northern central Australia and the tropical north.

Here's February 2012

February rainfall was generally above average for the south-eastern mainland, and below average for parts of northern Australia, particularly northern Western Australia and the Top End.
In the last days of February, a slow moving low pressure trough extending from central Australia through Victoria and very moist tropical airflow brought record breaking rainfall for central and northern Victoria, extending into southern New South Wales, causing flash flooding in some areas. The trough then brought particularly heavy falls in a wide band stretching from central Australia, through northern South Australia and western New South Wales to the Illawarra, causing further flooding and road closures.


Here's a photo of the Warragamba Dam spilling over on March 2, 2012 from those summer rains.

From SCA

Updated from yesterday.

History missing from sinking island piece-Part 2

The following correspondence received a little while ago on history missing from ABC's sinking island piece. This posted in the public interest. We now look towards ACMA to provide an independent review.

First the complaintDate: 16/01/12
Subject: factual error and lack of inquiry
Your Comments: The World Today report titled "Fears Islanders may soon be forced out of their homes" claimed that "The rise in sea levels and an increase in extreme weather events in the region make the islands at this time of the year particularly vulnerable."
Based on tide gauge data in the Torres Strait local sea levels are not rising. (see...http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/1749.php) There is also no evidence for an increase in extreme weather events in the region.
The low lying Islands are vulnerable to inundation and if ABC's reporter had bothered to look they would have found reports of islanders being evacuated in the late 1940s, a fact that would have been of interest to ABC's audience.
see http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/49657129
Please substantiate the claims made in relation to sea level rise and extreme weather events. Please also add an editorial line that makes it clear these islands have been evacuated in the past.

From Alan Sunderland
date: Tue, Feb 21, 2012 at 9:33 PM
subject: factual error & lack of inquiry
Dear Mr Hendrickx,
Thanks for the feedback.
Based on the information provided to me by the program team, I don’t believe the ABC report on the Torres Strait Islanders broadcast on January 16 was accurate and not misleading.
Here are some points in response:
Two recent papers which provide climate projections for the region which include details about the number of extreme weather events that are likely to occur and have an impact on Torres Strait Islands. They are: “An assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation for the Torres Strait Islands, Australia” (2010) published in Climatic Change Journal, and “Observed and future of the Torres Strait Region” (CSIRO report from 2010). Specifically the reports state that the observed ‘above average’ rate of sea level rise is of 6mm a year, compared to the global average of 3mm a year. This observation is highlighted in the reports as particularly concerning.
The CSIRO report (2010) concludes that climate change impacts will affect daily life on the Islands, by impacting on their economic livelihoods.
Dr. Donna Green, interviewed in this story for The World Today, has completed a study into climate change affects on the Torres Strait Islands. For her report, published late last year (titled: What Legal Recourse Do Non State Islands Have To Obtain Resources to Adapt to Climate Change), Dr. Green conducted an analysis of extreme sea level heights for Mer Island. It suggests that by 2050, there will be an increase in the frequency of extreme sea level events that are usually associated with inundation events on the Island. The report also anticipates that the present ‘one in one hundred year’ sea level height of 1.43m above mean sea level may be exceeded on average at least every 10 years by 2050.
The IPCC has acknowledged in their most recent report that small island states are disproportionately impacted by climate change due to their susceptibility to rising sea levels
These impacts have also been acknowledged by Federal Parliament. A private members motion, passed in August 2011, reads that the House: “recognises that the Torres Strait Islander people have been experiencing flood devastation for the past 4 years.... and that “in light of evidence of continued flooding on the outer islands due to king tidal surges, calls on government to commit to restore and rebuild damaged seawalls.”
We didn’t broadcast information about the islands being inundated in the 1940s, but it was clear that inundation has been a problem in the past – the reference to the sea walls makes this clear.
Our understanding is not that inundation is a completely new phenomena, but rather to do with the increase in the frequency of inundation events, which is linked to climate change (rising sea levels, and increase in extreme weather events.)
We think this was a fair and balanced report based on published scientific research.

Alan Sunderland
Head of Policy & Staff Development
ABC News

From ABC NEWS WATCH
Tue, Feb 21, 2012 at 10:19 PM
subject: Re: factual error & lack of inquiry
Thanks Alan,
I'll reply in more detail in the near future at ABC NEWS WATCH where your email below (above) will be repeated in full.
The information you have provided does nothing to justify the omission of the historical data from the report that would have given ABC's audience important historical context to the recent alarming reports. Your understanding may be that "inundation is (not) a completely new phenomena", however your audience were not given the chance to make this assessment due to your reporter's omission of the historical facts. Sea walls are built for a variety of reasons, hence your claim that "We didn’t broadcast information about the islands being inundated in the 1940s, but it was clear that inundation has been a problem in the past – the reference to the sea walls makes this clear." does not hold. Why not just simply state that similar inundations had resulted in complete evacuation of islands in the 1940s? I am not a journalist however I would have thought that providing historical context such as this would be essential in a report of this nature and would constitute "sound" journalism. Not having the pressures of commercial news networks I would have thought ABC would have had the capacity to stretch a little further and provide more information on this one. I remember it doing so in the past.
The ABC report also did not provide any information about the large uncertainties involved in IPCC sea level projections that you describe below, or that recent sea level trends around the Australian continent appear to be decelerating and hence call into question IPCC sea level projections used by Dr Green (see for instance HERE). As such it was missing in factual information, biased, lacked balance and like a lot of other recent ABC news articles on climate change it was simply misleading.
You are of course free to believe otherwise. It's amazing what people believe in this day and age.

Regards

Marc Hendrickx
Editor ABC NEWS WATCH

Further posts on this when our complaint to ACMA has been submitted. We are yet to fully evaluate the CSIRO documents provided by the ABC as the are not relevant to the lack of historical context. Looking at the CSIRO report "Observed and Future Climates of the Torres Strait Region" there is also no historical context. No mention of previous inundations or evacuations. The report  An assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation for the Torres Strait Islands, Australia provides only a brief paragraph of the 1948 inundation and evacuation. It also mentions in regard to more recent inundations in 2005 that did not result in evacuations: "Although the recent inundation events have not been linked to climate change,they serve as an indication of the kind of events that may occur more frequently in the future as a result of mean sea level rise." 

We note that the reporter in question, the oddly named Hagar Cohen, has provided a longer report on the issue for Background Briefing on the weekend. This time towards the end of the 40 minute program the inundations and evacuations of the 1940s gained a mention. They deserved a little more prominence but its an improvement on the previous effort.