Mt Everest melting! But who says it's so? Take 3

Lovely to see ABC contradict itself. Earlier this year we asked ABC to provide some evidence to back up claims of worsening climbing conditions on Mt Everest.
We asked them to substantiate the following points, taking into account alternate lines of evidence:

1.Climate change is altering the face of the Himalayas (New sat data shows Himalayan glaciers hardly melting at all)
2. Climate change is devastating farming communities in the Himalayas (A community farm in the Himalayan foothills is drawing people from all over)
3. Climate change is making Mount Everest increasingly treacherous to climb (13-year-old American climbs Everest, calls his mom).

ABC provided the weak reply (below) that ignored the main points. Now a story on ABC Science (Himalayan region bucks glacier melt trend: study) confirms that: "One of the world's biggest glacier regions has so far resisted global warming that has ravaged mountain ice elsewhere, according to scientists."

"But a French team, comparing 3D satellite maps from 2000 and 2008, said the glaciers had not lost mass over this period and may even have grown a tiny bit, at 0.11 millimetres per year."
Oh the irony!

From ABC Audience and Consumer Affairs received March 26.

Thank you for your email of February 26 concerning the story “'Super Sherpa' says climate change may make Everest unclimbable”

The sentence you have referred to and queried was the opinion of mountaineers and was clearly referenced as such. It was backed up by a quote from Apa Sherpa. While he may not be an expert on climate change, he is clearly an expert on what is required to make Mt Everest climbable, which was the point of the story. His opinion was premised on an understanding that the glaciers on Mt Everest are shrinking. That opinion is based on reasonable evidence. It is the assessment of the United Nations Environment Program’s Glacier Monitoring Service http://www.grid.unep.ch/glaciers/pdfs/6_9.pdf   and The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development. In relation to the Naturearticle you refer to, the ICIMD points out that the GRACE measurements used in that article do not allow for regional variations where climate change is resulting in shrinking glaciers in some areas due to rising temperatures (including the area in Nepal where Everest is located) but seems to be resulting in growing glaciers in some high altitude regions due to increased precipitation. http://www.icimod.org/?q=6705

Yours sincerely

MM

Audience & Consumer Affairs

Mt Everest melting! But who says it's so? Take 2.

ACM have a post (Media recycles two-year-old Everest scare story) on recycled news from a few years ago about the Himalayas becoming harder to climb due to global warming. ABC have similarly rehashed the story,('Super Sherpa' says climate change may make Everest unclimbable) this time with a little more flesh than the last. When ABC ran the story back in September 2010 they were forced to remove reference to claims about higher rates of warming in the Himalayas after they were unable to verify rates after initially using an IPCC table that we proved was erroneous. Our inquiries lead to corrections to the IPCC's report. (see the Himalaya/IPCC page for a run down.

In their new effort, ABC make the following unsubstantiated claims in the first sentence of their report that we ask them to substantiate:
1.Climate change is altering the face of the Himalayas (New sat data shows Himalayan glaciers hardly melting at all)
2. Climate change is devastating farming communities in the Himalayas (A community farm in the Himalayan foothills is drawing people from all over)
3. Climate change is making Mount Everest increasingly treacherous to climb (13-year-old American climbs Everest, calls his mom)

IPCC correct Table 10.2

In August last year we notified the IPCC (see HERE and HERE) of a series of errors with Table 10.2 of its Assessment Report Four, Working Group 2 report. These errors (listed HERE) included missing and incorrect references, incorrect and misleading claims about warming in the Himalaya and the astounding claim that temperatures in Sri Lanka were warming at a rate of 2 degrees per year!
The IPCC have finally made corrections to the relevant section of Table 10.2. Here's the original table (click to enlarge):

And here's the corrected version with changes made to Nepal and Sri Lanka, downloaded from the IPCC website on the 4/1/2011:

The complete corrected version of table 10.2 can be found HERE. We have not investigated other claims in the table.
The errors were discussed in a post on WUWT titled  Himalayan warming – pulling another thread from IPCC’s fragile tapestry. Comments in this post clearly identified the source of the error in Sri Lankan temperatures, finding reviewers comments were ignored at least two times.
It's great to see the IPCC finally clean up these errors, however as of 8 January 2011 there has been no acknowledgement of the error, no editorial statement explaining the changes the IPCC has made to its table, the changes are not listed in AR4 WGII errata, and no there has been no recognition of the role of ABC NEWS Watch and WUWT in assisting IPCC correct its report.

You may recall discovery of the errors arose when the ABC attempted to back up a claim in a report it sourced from the BBC that suggested  temperatures were rising faster at Mount Everest than the rest of South Asia. When ABC were requested to provide details of the “Studies” they cited  Table 10.2 from IPCC's AR4 Working Group 2 report.  However, contrary to ABC’s claims this table (see the old version above) showed that the area of fastest rising temperature in South Asia was Sri Lanka, not the Himalaya (and hence not Mt Everest). Both claims have now been shown to be erroneous. Interestingly the original BBC report "Sherpas warn ice melt is making Everest 'dangerous'", has never been corrected.


Funny where ABC's mistakes will ultimately lead. Job Done!


We have added a new page with all posts in this series under the title "Himalaya/IPCC".

Update: IPCC errors remain un-corrected-Sri Lanka Melting

IPCC's Press Officer Rockaya Aidara sends the following reply to our recent email:

"Thank you for your message. Please note that your first email has indeed been forwarded to Working Group 2 in August. Working Group 2 is responsible for handling such requests. Please trust that they will carefully check the scientific facts you pointed out, and will get back to you as soon as possible.

 Thank you again for drawing it to our attention.

 With kind regards"

To which we replied:

Thankyou for your response. It's a pity an acknowledgement of my earlier email was not sent in the first instance, perhaps the IPCC can undertake to alter this policy in the future, to avoid confusion. 

Given the clear nature of the errors that were initially pointed out several times by IPCC reviewers I am surprised it has taken  WGII so long to "check" the facts.  IPCC's claim that Sri Lanka is warming at 2 degrees per year is obviously a mistake that WGII authors failed to pick up on. Can you please advise when a correction is posted?

Table 10.2 currently (15/11/2010) includes the following: 

Sri Lanka

0.016°C increase per year between 1961 to 90 over entire country, 2°C increase per year in central highlands

According to IPCC between 1961 and 1990 there was an increase of around 60°C degrees in the central highlands of Sri Lanka!

IPCC errors remain un-corrected

We note that IPCC have yet to correct errors with its AR4, WGII report table 10.2. Here's the list of errors sent to the IPCC secretariat in August. We did not receive a reply to our email.

The following errors are noted for AR4 WGII Table 10.2.

1. Table 10.2 indicates that warming in the Himalaya is 0.09º C.yr-1 and the trend for Si Lanka is 2°C increase per year in central highlands. 

2. IPCC provide the incorrect reference to back their temperature figure for the Himalayas. They cite two conference papers and one peer reviewed paper that related to precipitation, not temperature. The correct reference is found to be: Shrestha, Arun B.; Wake, Cameron P.; Mayewski, Paul A.; Dibb, Jack E., 1999. Maximum Temperature Trends in the Himalaya and Its Vicinity: An Analysis Based on Temperature Records from Nepal for the Period 1971–94. Journal of Climate, 9/1/99, Vol. 12 Issue 9 pp:2775-2786.

3. The references for the Sri Lankan Temperatures are not from peer reviewed journals, they relate to precipitation, not temperature-see FOD Expert Review Comments .

4. The figure quoted for the Himalaya is the winter trend, not the annual trend. The annual trend is 0.057 º C.yr-1.

5. The highest annual trend for Nepal cited in Shrestha et al., 1999 is 0.09º C.yr-1 for the Trans-Himalaya.

6. The basis of the Himalayan trends (Shrestha et al 1999) is just 6 weather stations,. The average trend of 5 of these stations dating back to the 1960s is (Max/Min) 0.013º C.yr-1, much less than the 0.057º C.yr-1. All five of these stations are located in the eastern Himalaya. There are problems with use of Kriging method to obtain regional trends.

7. The trend cited for Sri Lankan is incorrect and was brought up in the review of IPCC AR4 WGII:

Watts Up With That reader Justcherrypicked notes:

Timeline:First Order Draft, 10.2.2 Observed climate trends and variability, Table 10.2 does not have a “change in temperature” entry for Sri Lanka, but does have entries for “Change in Precipitation”, and “References”. Which contain, “Increase trend in February and decrease trend in June” and “Chandrapala and Fernando, 1995; Chandrapala, 1996″ respectfully. Clearly, the two references relate to changes in precipitation, not temperature.

The missing entry is noted by Dr. Basnayake in FOD Expert Review Comments. He states:

“”Table 10.2″ under Sri Lanka -change in temperature “minimum and maximum temperatures have been increasing during tthe last centurary. 0.016 C increase per year during 1961-90 period over the entire country. 2.0 C increase per century over the central highlands.” under the references “Basnayake, B.R.S.B. et al 2002″”

. Note he said 2.0 C per century.

Dr. Basnayake’s comments are accepted by the lead authors and is then included in the Second Order Draft (SOD) as

“0.016°C increase per year between 1961-90over entire country, 2°C increase per year in central highlands”

Note they changed century to year, and left out the reference as well.

The error is picked up by Xiuqi Fang during the SOD expert review comments ,

“table 10.2. Check the temperature increasing rate in Sri Lanka. 2C increase per year is too high
(Xiuqi Fang, Beijing Normal University)”

, to which the LA responds “Table entries corrected”. Clearly they are not.

Sadly, Dr. Basnayake does not seem to be involved with the SOD as no reviewer comments for him exist.

Clearly, the IPCC statement “2.0 C increase per year” is an error that was pointed out and ultimately ignored. Additionally, the claim is without a citation.

Please correct the mistakes. It is leading to misleading statements in the media such as this ABC report: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/06/02/2915724.htm

Regards

Marc Hendrickx

This issue is raised in a Watts Up With That post titled:

Himalayan warming – pulling another thread from IPCC’s fragile tapestry.

Note the errors were found thanks to our follow up of an ABC report that failed to meet journalisitic standards.see Update 2: Mt Everest melting! But who says it's so?

Update 2: Mt Everest melting! But who says it's so?

COMMENT: ABC's use IPCC AR4 WGII report Table 10.2 to back up claims made in a brief report on Mt Everest that stated "Studies show temperatures are rising faster at Mount Everest than in the rest of South Asia"  has thrown up some interesting issues. Most of these are covered at the Watts Up With That post: Himalayan warming – pulling another thread from IPCC’s fragile tapestry. Here's a summary:
1. Table 10.2 indicates that warming in the Himalaya is 0.09º C.yr-1 however warming citing for Si Lanka is 2°C increase per year in central highlands. Clearly ABC's claim doesn't add up. 
2. IPCC provide the incorrect reference to back their figure for the Himalayas. They cite two conference papers and one peer reviewed paper that related to precipitation, not temperature. The correct reference is found to be: Shrestha, Arun B.; Wake, Cameron P.; Mayewski, Paul A.; Dibb, Jack E., 1999. Maximum Temperature Trends in the Himalaya and Its Vicinity: An Analysis Based on Temperature Records from Nepal for the Period 1971–94. Journal of Climate, 9/1/99, Vol. 12 Issue 9 pp:2775-2786.
3. The references for the Sri Lankan Temperatures are not from peer reviewed journals, they relate to precipitation, not temperature.
4. The figure quoted for the Himalaya is the winter trend, not the annual trend. The annual trend is 0.057 º C.yr-1.
5. The highest annual trend for Nepal cited in Shrestha et al., 1999 is 0.09º C.yr-1 for the Trans-Himalaya (an area that excludes Mt Everest).
5. The basis of the Himalayan trends (Shrestha et al 1999) is just 6 weather stations,. The average trend of 5 of these stations dating back to the 1960s is (Max/Min) 0.013º C.yr-1, much less than the 0.057º C.yr-1. All five of these stations are located in the eastern Himalaya. There are problems with use of Kriging method to obtain regional trends.
6. The trend cited for Sri Lankan was brought up in the review of IPCC AR4 WGII:
WUWT reader Justcherrypicked finds:
Timeline:First Order Draft, 10.2.2 Observed climate trends and variability, Table 10.2 does not have a “change in temperature” entry for Sri Lanka, but does have entries for “Change in Precipitation”, and “References”. Which contain, “Increase trend in February and decrease trend in June” and “Chandrapala and Fernando, 1995; Chandrapala, 1996″ respectfully. Clearly, the two references relate to changes in precipitation, not temperature.

The missing entry is noted by Dr. Basnayake in FOD Expert Review Comments. He states:

“”Table 10.2″ under Sri Lanka -change in temperature “minimum and maximum temperatures have been increasing during tthe last centurary. 0.016 C increase per year during 1961-90 period over the entire country. 2.0 C increase per century over the central highlands.” under the references “Basnayake, B.R.S.B. et al 2002″”

. Note he said 2.0 C per century.

Dr. Basnayake’s comments are accepted by the lead authors and is then included in the Second Order Draft (SOD) as

“0.016°C increase per year between 1961-90over entire country, 2°C increase per year in central highlands”

Note they changed century to year, and left out the reference as well.

The error is picked up by Xiuqi Fang during the SOD expert review comments ,

“table 10.2. Check the temperature increasing rate in Sri Lanka. 2C increase per year is too high
(Xiuqi Fang, Beijing Normal University)”

, to which the LA responds “Table entries corrected”. Clearly they are not.

Sadly, Dr. Basnayake does not seem to be involved with the SOD as no reviewer comments for him exist.

Clearly, the IPCC statement “2.0 C increase per year” is an error that was pointed out and ultimately ignored. Additionally, the claim is without a citation.

Both ABC and IPCC have some explaining to do. We have passed this on to the IPCC for comment. 

Himalayan warming

Readers may be interested in this post currently featured on Watts Up With That:

Himalayan warming – pulling another thread from IPCC’s fragile tapestry.

The case for dangerous man made global warming hangs on the wall like a frayed medieval tapestry. By pulling just one loose thread the whole thing starts to unravel. We pulled on of those threads recently…

The Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) was recently caught making a mistake in areport on melting ice on Mount Everest. The ABC claimed that ”Studies show temperatures are rising faster at Mount Everest than in the rest of South Asia.” When ABC were requested to provide details of the “Studies” they cited Table 10.2 from  IPCC’s AR4 Working Group 2 report. However, contrary to ABC’s claims this table showed that the area of fastest rising temperature in South Asia was Sri Lanka, not the Himalaya (and hence not Mt Everest). ABC’s gaff however served to highlight a few errors made by the IPCC. 

Read the rest at WUWT.

Update: Mt Everest melting! But who says it's so?

(According to ABC sources)

In early June we requested ABC substantiate claims it made in its report titled, Melting ice making Everest climbs dangerous, that: "Studies show temperatures are rising faster at Mount Everest than in the rest of South Asia." We requested ABC provide details of the studies. ABC have now replied with the following (the full reply is shown with the original post):
Received 2 August 2010
"On receipt of your complaint, we have investigated whether it could be established that a significant error had been made that warranted correction, as required by section 5.2.2(c)(ii) of the ABC’s Editorial Policies. Audience and Consumer Affairs note that studies do appear to show temperatures are rising faster at Mount Everest than in the rest of South Asia, as illustrated in Table 10.2 of the Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html. In view of this, we are unable to conclude that a significant error has been made which warrants correction. However, should you have specific further information which you feel is relevant to our decision on this point, we would be happy to consider it."
We have sent ABC Audience and Consumer Affairs the following email:

The ABC report states: "Studies show temperatures are rising faster at Mount Everest than in the rest of South Asia." You have now provided the IPCC table 10.2 as a reference for this information, however for South Asia this table indicates temperature rise in Sri Lanka at "2°C increase per year in central highlands " while the annual increase for the Himalaya is given as "0.09°C per year in Himalayas". Clearly the values for Sri Lanka greatly exceed those of the Himalaya, and Sri Lanka, not the Himalaya, is the area where temperatures are rising faster in South Asia. Clearly both trends are also worthy of further journalistic inquiry for if continued both would greatly exceed IPCC forecasts.

Can you please now amend the article, firstly to include the source reference you refer to, and secondly to correct the factual error?  It is a pity that I have been privy to this information and Audience and Consumer affairs research and other audience members have not. 

Table 10.2 can be viewed directly at:

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-2-2.html
Extract from Table 10.2:

South Asia	India	0.68°C increase per century, increasing trends in annual mean temperature, warming more pronounced during post monsoon and winter
	Nepal	0.09°C per year in Himalayas and 0.04°C in Terai region, more in winter
	Pakistan	0.6 to 1.0°C rise in mean temperature in coastal areas since early 1900s
	Bangladesh	An increasing trend of about 1°C in May and 0.5°C in November during the 14 year period from 1985 to 1998
	Sri Lanka	0.016°C increase per year between 1961 to 90 over entire country, 2°C increase per year in central highlands

We wait ABC's reply. In the meantime we are investigating the source of the warming trends proposed for the Himalayas cited by the IPCC. The three references provided for the Himalaya trends in Table 10.2 are as follows:

Shrestha, A.B., 2004: Climate change in Nepal and its impact on Himalayan glaciers. Presented European Climate Forum Symposium on “Key vulnerable regions and climate change: Identifying thresholds for impacts and adaptation in relation to Article 2 of the UNFCCC”, Beijing.

Shrestha, A.B., C.P. Wake, J.E. Dibb and P.A. Mayewski, 2000: Precipitation fluctuations in the Nepal Himalaya and its vicinity and relationship with some large scale climatological parameters. Int. J. Climatol., 20, 317-327.

Bhadra, B., 2002: Regional cooperation for sustainable development of Hindu Kush Himalaya region: opportunities and challenges.Paper presented at the Alpine Experience – An Approach for other Mountain Regions, Berchtesgaden.
Strangely and contrary to IPCC practice, only one of these is peer reviewed and it deals with precipitation, not temperature; the other citations are conference presentations. The actual temperature values quoted in the table originate from the following paper:
Shrestha, Arun B.; Wake, Cameron P.; Mayewski, Paul A.; Dibb, Jack E.. Maximum Temperature Trends in the Himalaya and Its Vicinity: An Analysis Based on Temperature Records from Nepal for the Period 1971--94. Journal of Climate, 9/1/99, Vol. 12 Issue 9 pp:2775-2786
This paper makes for interesting reading. It appears that the stations used to calculate Himalayan trends come from east Nepal and on face value these do not appear to confirm the warming trends claimed. We intend to post further on this in the near future.
Quick update: the closest weather station to Mt Everest used in the Shrestha et al 1999 paper is Chialsa, 59 km away. ABC's claims that "Studies show temperatures are rising faster at Mount Everest than in the rest of South Asia" are based on a study that has no data at Mt Everest!