Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Where's the science? Activists hijack climate change.

COMMENT: ABC report "Eco-activists mass for alternative climate summit" 20 April, 2010.
"Environmental activists, indigenous leaders and Hollywood celebrities are gathering in Bolivia ahead of a self-styled global people's conference on climate change.Thousands of attendees intend to highlight the plight of the world's poorest who they argue were largely ignored at the official United Nations-sponsored summit in Copenhagen last December."

Meanwhile ...Climate Science found in Chicago in May. 
While ABC gives prominent coverage to climate activism one wonders whether ABC will mention the Fourth International Conference on Climate Change, to be held in Chicago, Illinois on May 16-18, 2010.This years theme is "Reconsidering the Science and Economics".

Monday, April 19, 2010

Missing News: Climate Science: Giving the IPCC Curry


Climate Research: "
The charges of “groupthink,” “cargo cult science,” and “tribalism” have some validity in my opinion." -Prof. Judith Curry.

COMMENT: Nothing so far on the ABC about recent comments by prominent Climate Scientist Professor Judith Curry. Prof. Curry posted the following provocative comments regarding the recent investigation (or was that Whitewash) into the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia by Lord Oxburgh on Roger Pielke Jnr's blog and also on Real Climate.
Comments at ROGER PIELKE JNR BLOG post Squeaky Clean
The primary frustration with these investigations is that they are dancing around the principal issue that people care about: the IPCC and its implications for policy. Focusing only on CRU activities (which was the charge of the Oxbourgh panel) is of interest mainly to UEA and possibly the politics of UK research funding (it will be interesting to see if the U.S. DOE sends any more $$ to CRU). Given their selection of CRU research publications to investigate (see Bishop Hill), the Oxbourgh investigation has little credibility in my opinion. However, I still think it unlikely that actual scientific malfeasance is present in any of these papers: there is no malfeasance associated with sloppy record keeping, making shaky assumptions, and using inappropriate statistical methods in a published scientific journal article.
The corruptions of the IPCC process, and the question of corruption (or at least inappropriate torquing) of the actual science by the IPCC process, is the key issue. The assessment process should filter out erroneous papers and provide a broader assessment of uncertainty; instead, we have seen evidence of IPCC lead authors pushing their own research results and writing papers to support an established narrative. I don't see much hope for improving the IPCC process under its current leadership.
The historical temperature record and the paleoclimate record over the last millennium are important in many many aspects of climate research and in the communication of climate change to the public; both of these data sets are at the heart of the CRU email controversy. In my opinion, there needs to be a new independent effort to produce a global historical surface temperature dataset that is transparent and that includes expertise in statistics and computational science. Once "best" methods have been developed and assessed for assembling such a dataset including uncertainty estimates, a paleoclimate reconstruction should be attempted (regional, hemispheric, and possibly global) with the appropriate uncertainty estimates. The public has lost confidence in the data sets produced by CRU, NASA, Penn State, etc. While such an independent effort may confirm the previous analysies, it is very likely that improvements will be made and more credible uncertainty estimates can be determined. And the possibility remains that there are significant problems with these datasets; this simply needs to be sorted out. Unfortunately, the who and how of actually sorting all this out is not obvious. Some efforts are underway in the blogosphere to examine the historical land surface data (e.g. such as GHCN), but even the GHCN data base has numerous inadequacies. Addressing the issues associated with the historical and paleo temperature records shou
ld be paramount.


Comments by Prof Judith Curry at REAL CLIMATE

Several RC readers have emailed me, and after a quick perusal of the comments regarding my post at Bishop Hill, I have a few comments to make.

I haven’t come across any posts in the blogosphere with my name on that were not written by me. I haven’t posted anything on RC in several years, although I did invite RC (gavin) to post something on my “Part II: Towards rebuilding trust” essay. Gavin declined, although he did email comments to me on the essay. I have not made any public statement regarding my not posting at RC. I post mainly on sites where I feel there is an opportunity to provoke people to think and challenge their own prejudices on a particular topic. I have posted on blogs ranging from climateprogress to wuwt, and I have received a broad range of responses, with highly negative responses coming from across the spectrum. I don’t stay away from blogs that aren’t “friendly” to me, and I rarely spend time trying to preach to the converted.
So what am I up to? I am trying to provoke people to have open minds and think critically about climate research. The charges of “groupthink,” “cargo cult science,” and “tribalism” have some validity in my opinion. The field of climate research faces some unique challenges owing to the extremely high relevance of our science for policy, and the scientists and the institutions that support the science have not yet adapted to dealing effectively in this highly charged and politicized arena. We need to have a broad discussion on how to improve this situation.
As to whether I have gone over to the “dark side.” First, I’m not sure why we are talking about “sides” (that tribalism thing); we should be talking about science and how to improve the integrity of science. With regards to the “dark side,” there are people making politically motivated attacks against climate research (Marc Morano and Myron Ebell come immediately to mind). And then there are people questioning many aspects of climate research and the IPCC process and making arguments based upon evidence (e.g. Steve McIntyre, Andrew Montford). To dismiss all criticisms of the climate establishment (e.g. IPCC, RC, etc) as the “dark side” and to be dismissed is hampering scientific progress and diminishing the credibility of climate science. So yes, I talk to people that many RC readers would classify as the “dark side”: the skeptical bloggers, “mainstream” skeptical scientists, and even some people from the libertarian think tanks. Regarding my personal opinion on where I stand regarding climate science as presented by the IPCC. I place little confidence in the WG2 and WG3 reports; these fields are in their infancy. With regards to the WG1 report, I think that some of the confidence levels are too high. During the period Feb 2007 – Nov 2009, when I gave a presentation on climate change I would say “don’t believe what one scientist says, listen to what the IPCC has to say” and then went on to defend the IPCC process and recite the IPCC conclusions. I am no longer substituting the IPCC’s judgment for my own judgment on this matter. So if the readers here assess that this constitutes going over to the “dark side” then so be it; my conclusion will be that the minds seem to be more open on the “dark side”.
Gavin’s statement “-especially in the light of the tsunami of baseless accusations against scientists that have been hitting the internet in the last few months-“ makes the mistake of dismissing all accusations/criticisms. I agree, it is difficult to sort through all the crazy statements and identify the substantive arguments. So I will help you out. I have seen no mention on RC of Andrew Montford’s (Bishop Hill) book “The Hockey Stick Illusion.” If Montford’s arguments and evidence are baseless, then you should refute them. They deserve an answer, whether or not his arguments are valid. And stating that you have refuted these issues before isn’t adequate; the critical arguments have not hitherto been assembled into a complete narrative. And attacking Montford’s motives, past statements or actions, etc. won’t serve as a credible dismissal. Attack the arguments and the evidence that he presents. I for one would very much like to see what RC has to say about this book.

We have requested ABC provide some coverage.

Missing News: Homeopathy-no effects beyond placebo

COMMENT: Homeopathy: what does the "best" evidence tell us?


Study Conclusion: The findings of currently available Cochrane reviews of studies of homeopathy do not show that homeopathic medicines have effects beyond placebo.


Edzard Ernst. Med J Aust 2010; 192 (8): 458-460.
http://www.mja.com.au/public/issues/192_08_190410/ern11179_fm.html

Sensationalist headline for CSIRO study on ocean salinity

ABC HEADLINE: "Ocean's saltiness reaching extremes" ABC Science 16 April 2010
ABC REPORTED: ABC post a news report by Larry O'Hanlon of Discovery News dealing with a recent study published online in the Journal of Climate by CSIRO scientists Paul Durack and Dr Susan Wijffels titled "FIFTY-YEAR TRENDS IN GLOBAL OCEAN SALINITIES AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP TO BROAD-SCALE WARMING" (doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3377.1)
The introductory sentence of the news report reads: "The supercharging of Earth's water cycle by global warming is making some parts of our oceans saltier, while others parts are getting fresher, according to a new study." The ABC version is slightly modified from the version on Discovery News (HERE).
The report appears to be based on a CSIRO Press Release of the 14 April (http://www.csiro.au/news/Ocean-salinities-show-an-intensified-water-cycle.html) which does not indicate that salinity is reaching extreme levels, merely that the water cycle has intensified. 

THE COMPLAINT: The headline misrepresents the contents of the report. No where in the article is there an indication that Ocean saltiness is "reaching extremes". Indeed no where in the actual study is there a suggestion that Ocean saltiness is reaching extremes. Please amend the headline.Suggest: "CSIRO Study finds water cycle intensity has increased".
The link to the Journal of Climate referred to in the article does not work.

OUTCOME: Pending
COMMENT: Sensationalism is not justified by the facts. Perhaps more troubling is that the authors of the study appear to have let the media get away with misrepresenting their findings. We trust they are complaining as loudly as we are.

Sunday, April 18, 2010

Contrasting headlines on the same day-don't count your chickens too early

COMMENT: Contrasting headlines on the same day:
A touch of frostbite won't stop Aussie explorer Updated Fri Apr 16, 2010 1:55am AEST
A Perth adventurer attempting to become the first Australian to reach the North Pole unassisted says he is mentally strong, but his body is starting to struggle. Mr Smitheringale has told ABC local radio he is about 300 kilometres from the pole and anticipates it should take him another few weeks to reach it.
Ice man recounts brush with death Updated Fri Apr 16, 2010 7:38pm AEST
Tom Smitheringale had to be rescued by the Canadian military about 300 kilometres short of his destination.

Saturday, April 17, 2010

Lateline: unsceptical journalism in action?

Update 2 Just in case we didn't hear it the first time ABC have responded again. reply 2 received 7 June 2010.
Update ABC reply received 21 April, 2010-see below
COMMENT: The current issue of The Spectator Australia, contains a article by John Styles titled "Maurice Newman is dead right about the ABC."
The report indicates that Lateline host Tony Jones claims to have interviewed all the main scientific sceptics.  "From around the year 2001 on Lateline, we began interviewing everybody we could about this subject; and we interviewed all the main scientific sceptics." Tony Jones - 6 April 2008.
However Styles report that for in-depth one on one interviews:
"A trawl through the archive netted more than 20 one-on-one interviews in the same period with experts on the true-believer side of the debate. It is a scandalous scorecard: believers 20+, heretics 1."
This suggests a  lack of balance on reporting climate change at the ABC. We have forwarded this on the ABC Audience and Consumer Affairs for comment.
Read the rest of the article HERE.

Outcome: ABC reply received 21 April, 2010
Thank  you for your email of 17 April.
Audience and Consumer Affairs investigates complaints raising editorial issues from the ABC audience on specific broadcasts.  We require that complainants provide reference to particular ABC broadcasts to support their complaint, including the date of broadcast and name of the program or content in question.  We do not investigate matters raised in stories by other media outlets.
Nonetheless, please be assured that your email, and The Spectator article you refer to, are noted by the ABC.  For your reference, the ABC's Code of Practice is available at:
http://www.abc.net.au/corp/pubs/documents/200806_codeofpractice-revised_2008.pdf

Yours sincerely
Audience and Consumer Affairs



Reply Received 7 June 2010
Thank  you for your email.  I apologise for the delay in responding.

Please be assured that your comments are noted and a copy of The Spectator article has been conveyed to ABC News.  However, I should explain that Audience and Consumer Affairs can only engage in detail with your concerns to the extent that they raise specific issues about particular items of ABC content, and their compliance with the ABC's Editorial Policies and Code of Practice.  If you have concerns about a specific ABC broadcast, we will review your concerns and respond as appropriate.  Audience and Consumer Affairs does not investigate the claims made in magazine stories about ABC programs.

It is also perhaps pertinent to note that the ABC is not obliged to respond to a complaint about a program which is made to the ABC more than six months after the broadcast to which it refers; this is in keeping with section 7.1 of our Code of Practice.  Rather, we consider such complaints on a case by case basis, taking into account such matters as the availability of the program itself, and other related material required to properly investigate the concerns raised.

For your reference, the ABC's Code of Practice is available at: http://www.abc.net.au/corp/pubs/documents/200806_codeofpractice-revised_2008.pdf

Yours sincerely
Audience & Consumer Affairs

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Whitewashing the whitewash

Update: Reply received 9 June 2010 -see below
ABC HEADLINE:  "Second inquiry clears Climategate scientists" ABC online 15 April,2010
ABC REPORTED: ABC post a Reuters report ("Inquiry clears climate scientists in email row") about results of the Oxburgh Inquiry into British Climate Scientists from the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. The first sentence is changed to begin with "Another inquiry..."
THE COMPLAINT: Section 5.2.2 (f) of ABC's Editorial Policy states: Be questioning. Serve the public interest by investigating issues affecting society and individuals.
ABC has failed in its duty to serve the public interest in its coverage of the Oxburgh Inquiry by not reporting on:
1. Affiliations of members of the Assessment Panel that are indicative of strong conflict of interest.
Chair: Prof Ron Oxburgh FRS (Lord Oxburgh of Liverpool): Honorary President of the UK Carbon Capture and Storage Association  and member of Climate Change Capitals advisory board. Lord Oxburgh has stated: "You can't slip a piece of paper between David King [the government's chief science adviser who said climate change was a bigger threat than terrorism] and me on this position.Guardian 17 June, 2004.
Prof Kerry Emanuel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology: Co-author on a paper with Climategate scientist Michael Mann.
Prof Lisa Graumlich, University of Arizona. Co-author of a paper with Malcolm Hughes published in the proceedings of a NATO workshop – edited by Phil Jones, whose scientific output was the subject of the panel's inquiry. Malcolm Hughes has published with Michael Mann and Phil Jones (Mann, M.E.,Raymond S. Bradley, Malcolm K. Hughes, and Philip D. Jones (1998). "Global Temperature Patterns". Science 280: 2027.)


2. Content of the report compared to the aims of the inquiry, which were to provide "an independent assessment of CRU's key publications in the areas which have been most subject to comment." (CRU press release 22 March, 2010). The list of references is just 11 CRU papers, five on tree rings, six on CRUTEM. Notably missing from the “sample” are key papers on 1000-year reconstructions: for instance:
Jones, P. D., K. R. Briffa, T. P. Barnett, and S. F. B. Tett, High-resolution palaeclimatic records for the last millennium: Interpretation, integration and camparison with General Circulation Model control-run temperatures, The Holocene, 8, 455– 471, 1998. 
Mann M. E. and Jones, P. D., 2003. Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 30, NO. 15, 1820, doi:10.1029/2003GL017814, 2003 
Jones and Mann 2004.
Mann M. E. and Jones, P. D., 2004.CLIMATE OVER PAST MILLENNIA. Reviews of Geophysics, 42

As Steve McIntyre indicates:
Update 9.40 am.
The Daily Telegraph reports:
"Professor Hand did say that “inappropriate methods” were used by a separate university to draw up the infamous “hockey stick” graph showing the rise in global temperatures over more than 1,000 years."
Uh, memo to Oxburgh. CRU produced its own hockey stick graphs in Jones et al 1998, Mann and Jones 2003, for example. For some reason, Oxburgh and his associates regrettably neglected to consider these articles.

3. No analysis of the reports brevity (5 pages) or speed of production: 3 weeks from announcement to report; and whether this constitutes an appropriate response to the serious allegations raised by the Climategate emails or a "Whitewash".

4. Failure to elaborate on criticism in the report about the Unit's handling of statistics made by Prof David Hand,for instance as reported by New Scientist.

The report fails to live up to ABC's commitment for quality journalism.


Here's how the UK Telegraph covered the same story:  'Hockey stick' graph was exaggerated
with commentary by Gerard Warner "Climategate: CRU whiter than – er – whitewash, as world laughs at AGW scam apologists"

OUTCOME:reply received 9 June 2010

Thank you for your email of 15 April concerning the ABC News Online story “Second inquiry clears Climategate scientists”, published that day. Please accept my apologies for the delay in responding.

In keeping with ABC complaint handling procedures, your concerns have been considered by Audience and Consumer Affairs, a unit separate to and independent from ABC program areas. In light of your concerns, we have assessed the story against provision 5.2.2(f) of the ABC’s Editorial Policies, which requires staff be questioning in news and current affairs content and serve the public interest by investigating issues affecting society and individuals. In the interests of procedural fairness, we have also sought and considered material from ABC News.

The story in question highlighted the fact that the inquiry set up by University of East Anglia to investigate the methods used by the Climatic Research Unit had cleared the Unit of wrongdoing, finding no evidence of any deliberate scientific malpractice. The story also reported that the inquiry had been critical of the way the Unit had handled statistics and recommended that it work with professional statisticians in future. Criticism of the inquiry was also cited, with the inclusion of comments from the Director of the Global Warming Policy Foundation, Dr Benny Peiser, who described the inquiry as “rushed and superficial” and suggested the panel had not done a proper job.

ABC News have advised that they considered the focus of the story, which was from wire agency partner Reuters, to be newsworthy and in the public interest. They note that one of the main allegations made against the Climatic Research Unit was the dishonest use of scientific data; accordingly, ABC News consider it was reasonable for this aspect to be highlighted in a story that focussed on the inquiry panel’s findings. This matter was itself highlighted in both the introduction and conclusion of the panel’s report: http://www.uea.ac.uk/mac/comm/media/press/CRUstatements/SAP.

ABC News does acknowledge that the story could have provided some details about the credentials of those appointed to the panel, and the range of reports and publications considered by the inquiry. However, they do not consider that, in the context of a story that focussed on the report’s findings, this was absolutely necessary or constituted a serious omission. Instead, ABC News believe the story presented a fair account of the panel’s findings, as outlined in its report dated 12 April, and some of the criticisms of the inquiry made by others.

In respect to the other coverage of the story to which you refer, ABC News acknowledges that the UK’s Telegraph newspaper chose to highlight a different aspect of the story, concentrating on the panel’s criticism of the Unit’s use of statistical tools and methods. ABC News appreciate that this is also a legitimate line of coverage, and believes this demonstrates that different journalists will focus on different news points in the same story. As noted above, the panel’s criticisms of the Unit’s statistical methodology was mentioned in the story published by the ABC.

You also refer to articles published online by the Telegraph newspaper and New Scientist magazine that reported on criticisms expressed by Professor David Hand about papers by other parties, including a 1998 paper by Professor Mann of Pennsylvania State University that included the “hockey stick” graph. This was not part of the inquiry or panel report about the Climatic Research Unit to which the ABC story pertained. Accordingly, ABC News do not consider it was necessary or relevant to mention in the story.

The other articles to which you refer, by Telegraph commentator Gerald Warner and the Global Warming Policy Foundation’s Stephen McIntyre, were online blog entries providing commentary and opinion on the story rather than news reportage. Again, we note that the ABC’s online news story in question included comments critical of the inquiry, including those of the Global Warming Policy Foundation’s Director, Dr Peiser.

On review, Audience and Consumer Affairs are satisfied that the ABC News Online story, “Second inquiry clears Climategate scientists”, was in keeping with the relevant ABC editorial standards. We believe the story was newsworthy and provided a fair and accurate account of the inquiry panel’s findings, which was the focus of the story. While we note you believe other aspects of the story, or related matters covered by other media outlets, should have been included, we cannot agree that their omission constituted a breach of provision 5.2.2(f) of the ABC’s Editorial Policies. Nonetheless, please be assured that your comments have been noted by ABC News.

Finally, it is worth noting that ABC News Online is not a dedicated climate change journal, but a general news services. While ABC News Online endeavours to provide coverage of climate change on a newsworthy basis, this does not mean, nor require, that all stories or perspectives will be reported. As you may appreciate, coverage and publications presented by other outlets and organisations, particularly those with specialist interests and audiences such as New Scientist and the Global Warming Policy Foundation, would no doubt reflect their editorial scope and focus.

Thank you again for taking the time to write. For your reference, copies of the ABC’s Code of Practice and Editorial Policies are available at: http://www.abc.net.au/corp/pubs/charter.htm.

Yours sincerely
Audience & Consumer Affairs

COMMENT: Lack of questioning by the media assists in whitewashing the whitewash.